Game-by-game picks: Against back-loaded schedule, can UK produce bounce-back year?
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2023 College Football Preview
The Lexington Herald-Leader’s 2023 College Football Preview will be published in the print edition on Sunday, Aug. 27. Click below to view all the stories that have been published on Kentucky.com.
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It is a testament to how much Kentucky football expectations have risen during the Mark Stoops coaching era that UK’s seven-win regular season in 2022 was judged a full-on disappointment.
This for a Wildcats football program that has only won more than seven games in a regular season three times — 1984, 2018, 2021 — since 1977.
Yet with Stoops’ troops having gone 10-3 twice (2018 and 2021) in the past five seasons, the standard for what the Big Blue Nation now considers “success” has changed.
As is shown by the fact that UK backers have already purchased every available season ticket for the seven home games at Kroger Field in 2023, hopes are again high for football success in the Bluegrass.
Can the Wildcats “bounce back” from last season’s unsatisfying 7-6 overall performance?
Below are my game-by-game predictions for how the impending Kentucky football season will play out:
Ball State
When and where: Sept. 2 at Kroger Field.
The hope: Kentucky has won 16 straight regular-season games vs. non-conference opponents. Ball State has had eight losing seasons out of the past nine, and is 0-11 all-time against teams currently in the SEC.
The nope: Those well-versed in UK football history know that it would not be unprecedented for a Wildcats season with positive expectations to be roiled by an upset loss to a MAC opponent in the season opener.
The scope: Kentucky 45, Ball State 16.
Eastern Kentucky
When and where: Sept. 9 at Kroger Field.
The hope: UK learned its lesson two seasons ago with its shockingly close shave vs. FCS foe Chattanooga — a 28-23 Wildcats escape — and comes ready to play against Walt Wells’ Colonels.
The nope: Eastern has led Kentucky in the second half of the past two meetings (2015, 2017) between the teams. Parker McKinney, the Colonels’ super-senior quarterback, can really sling it.
The scope: Kentucky 41, Eastern Kentucky 21.
Akron
When and where: Sept. 16 at Kroger Field.
The hope: The visiting Zips are 9-45 overall since 2018. Akron is 0-9 all-time against Southeastern Conference opponents.
The nope: Zips head man Joe Moorhead has experience beating UK. He was Mississippi State’s coach in 2019 when the Bulldogs tamed the Wildcats 28-13 in Starkville.
The scope: Kentucky 49, Akron 10.
Vanderbilt
When and where: Sept. 23 in Nashville, Tenn.
The hope: In recent seasons, UK has played better against Vandy in Nashville than in Lexington. On their past three trips to face Vanderbilt in Music City, the Cats have won by an average margin of 29.3 points.
The nope: Last season at Kroger Field, Clark Lea’s Commodores ended a 26-game SEC losing streak with a 21-17 upset of the Cats. The 15 starters Vandy returns from that team will be keenly motivated to show that their breakthrough against Kentucky was no fluke.
The scope: Kentucky 31, Vanderbilt 21.
Florida
When and where: Sept. 30 at Kroger Field.
The hope: After going 31 games from 1987 through 2017 without taming the mighty Gators, Kentucky has now beaten Florida two in a row and three out of five. Over the past two seasons, UF has been a dreadful road team, having lost six of its seven SEC away games.
The nope: For second-year Florida coach Billy Napier, beating UK would be an important sign to a restive fan base that the Gators’ program is moving back in the right direction.
The scope: Kentucky 28, Florida 23.
Georgia
When and where: Oct. 7 in Athens, Ga.
The hope: Kirby Smart’s two-time defending national champions will come into the Kentucky contest off a rivalry game at Auburn the prior week.
The nope: UK has lost 13 in a row to the Bulldogs. In their past six meetings with the Dawgs, the Cats have averaged only 8.7 points.
The scope: Georgia 27, Kentucky 13.
Missouri
When and where: Oct. 24 at Kroger Field.
The hope: Kentucky is becoming to Mizzou what Tennessee has always been to UK: a persistent nemesis. The Wildcats have won seven of the past eight meetings vs. the Tigers, with several of those Missouri losses (including last year’s) coming in ways that have haunted and taunted Mizzou.
The nope: Missouri has 15 starters back and, if Eli Drinkwitz can get competent quarterback play, the Tigers could be the surprise team in the SEC East.
The scope: Kentucky 30, Missouri 24.
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Tennessee
When and where: Oct. 28 at Kroger Field.
The hope: Kentucky enters the game off an open week; the Rocky Toppers come to Lexington one week after playing at Alabama. For UK, it’s hard to get a more favorable “game setup” than that.
The nope: Since Josh Heupel brought his up-tempo attack to Knoxville, Tennessee has averaged 44.5 points in its two meetings vs. the Cats. There’s also the matter of UT having beaten UK 35 times in the past 38 meetings.
The scope: Kentucky 38, Tennessee 35.
Mississippi State
When and where: Nov. 4 in Starkville, Miss.
The hope: Having not won at Mississippi State since 2008 — and having not beaten any SEC West team on the road since 2009 — Kentucky is way past due.
The nope: Davis Wade Stadium is Mark Stoops’ personal haunted house. The UK head man is 0-5 there and the last four defeats have been by an average of 23.3 points.
The scope: Mississippi State, 28, Kentucky 21.
Alabama
When and where: Nov. 11 at Kroger Field.
The hope: The “Saban-ic forces” have lately been vulnerable on the road in the conference. Alabama has a combined three losses in SEC away games over the past two seasons. Bama will also come to Lexington after having played in the projected SEC West “Game of the Year” vs. LSU in the prior week.
The nope: Nick Saban is 8-0 vs. Kentucky as a head coach — 3-0 at LSU, 5-0 at Alabama.
The scope: Alabama 33, Kentucky 28.
South Carolina
When and where: Nov. 18 in Columbia, S.C.
The hope: Kentucky has won seven of the last nine meetings with South Carolina, and the Gamecocks have not beaten the Wildcats in a game in which UK had its starting quarterback available since 2013.
The nope: In his two seasons as South Carolina head man, Shane Beamer has had his team playing well late in the year. The Gamecocks beat Tennessee and Clemson down the stretch in 2022 and defeated Florida, Auburn and North Carolina (in the Duke’s Mayo Bowl) late in 2021.
The scope: South Carolina 29, Kentucky 28.
Louisville
When and where: Nov. 25 at L&N Federal Credit Union Stadium.
The hope: UK has taken the Governor’s Cup trophy home after five of its prior six meetings with U of L. The Cats have won the past four contests against the Cards by a combined margin of 179-57.
The nope: New Louisville coach Jeff Brohm is 6-2 as an FBS head man against his team’s primary rival. A former U of L quarterback, Brohm will be keenly aware of how desperately the Cardinals fan base craves a rivalry reversal of fortunes vs. the Cats.
The scope: Kentucky 42, Louisville 35.
Final Kentucky record: 8-4, 4-4 SEC.
This story was originally published August 24, 2023 at 10:13 AM.
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