Kentucky football vs. Ball State predictions: Can Wildcats make statement in opener?

It’s almost football time in the Bluegrass! Here are some final thoughts and predictions about how the University of Kentucky’s 2023 season opener against Ball State might play out at Kroger Field on Saturday.

How important is a fast start?

With the opener representing the first chance to finally make good on months of anticipation for the season, it would be understandable if there were some extra nerves and emotion when Kentucky players take the field for the first time.

“I think they’re dialed in, but listen, up to this point it’s all talk,” defensive coordinator Brad White said this week. “It’s all sort of speculation. It’s hopes. Now it’s the real thing. You’ve got to go out there and you’ve got to do it.

“A big challenge for our guys is we haven’t necessarily started the fastest in home openers. That’s a big challenge for our guys. I think it’s not that they’re flat. I think they come out sometimes maybe over-excited and amped and you’re ready for that first game.”

Kentucky has not scored first in its home opener since 2017. The last three openers against Mid-American Conference foes have featured plenty of early frustrations.

A year ago, Kentucky did not take the lead for good in its home opener against Miami (Ohio) until converting a field goal at the halftime buzzer. Kentucky went to the half tied at 14 with Toledo in its 2019 opener. In 2018, Kentucky led Central Michigan 21-20 at halftime thanks to a touchdown with 14 seconds left in the second quarter.

While the slow starts might have frustrated players, coaches and fans, they did not prevent Kentucky from winning each of those games by multiple touchdowns.

“We’ve gone over with our team openers early in the season, areas where we’ve made mistakes and how we get it corrected,” UK Coach Mark Stoops said. “We may have to do that again. We want to play a perfect game, but that doesn’t always happen. We’re going to strive for it. We have confidence that we can get to the sideline, make adjustments and move forward.”

Position battle ongoing

The opening depth chart released by Stoops on Monday featured an “or” for the starting spot at seven different positions. Evidently there was not enough separation between the players listed at those positions to declare a clear starter, but several of the positions featuring an “or” will include heavy rotation regardless.

Both tight end positions, defensive end, nose guard and strong safety fall into that category. The “or” between Alex Afari, a defensive back, and Keaten Wade, a linebacker, at nickel back/strongside linebacker means the starter depends on which formation Kentucky’s defense opens with.

Coaches have been clear though that the “or” between Jeremy Flax and Courtland Ford at right tackle is a signal that the position battle there will carry over into the season.

“Flax is going to start the game for us just like the depth chart said, and then we’re going to get Courtland in quick, just like we have been,” offensive line coach Zach Yenser said. “They’ve been going every three reps in practice really since Courtland got here in the summer.”

Kentucky coaches have expressed confidence that the fact neither right tackle ran away with the job in camp is a positive rather than a reason for worry, but there is no way to know for sure until Flax and Ford are tested in an actual game.

Remember, the offensive line problems a year ago were immediately apparent when the Wildcats surrendered four sacks in the opener against Miami (Ohio).

Pressure on special teams

The opener will mark the first test for Kentucky’s rebuilt special teams unit.

Stoops hired special teams coordinator Jay Boulware to fix the season-long struggles on the kicking units from a year ago. Boulware then made heavy use of the transfer portal to bring in reinforcements at the position.

Georgia Southern transfer Alex Raynor won the kicking job in camp while incumbent Wilson Berry retained his punting position. UK will split snapping duties between punts (Temple transfer Ron Gaines) and field goals (freshman walk-on Walker Himebauch).

“Improved,” Stoops said of special teams. “We need to, that’s pretty obvious and we worked hard at it. … I’ve felt like it’s improved, I like the leadership we’ve had, and the players and commitment we’ve shown. Now we got to go put it on film.”

FINAL PREDICTIONS

Kentucky 42, Ball State 14: As outlined above, it would not be a shock to see a sluggish start for UK in its opener, but the offense has too many playmakers to think that will last for long. The guess here is Liam Coen and company will want to make a statement in Coen’s return to college football. Kentucky’s 2021 opener, Coen’s first game in his previous stint as offensive coordinator, saw quarterback Will Levis throw for 367 yards and four touchdowns in a 45-10 blowout of Louisiana Monroe.

MVP: Devin Leary. No need to get cute here. All eyes are on Leary in his first game since transferring from North Carolina State. There has been no sign of rust in preseason practices as Leary worked back from a torn pectoral muscle that ended his 2022 season after six games. Saturday is a chance for Leary to make a statement in his new offense.

The spread: Kentucky is favored by 26.5 points. None of the Wildcats’ six wins against FBS foes last season came by that margin, but Kentucky came closest in its opener against Miami (24 points) despite the sluggish start in that game. UK has won its last two openers by an average of 29.5 points.

Leary passing yards: 315

Ball State sacks: Two

Catches for Kentucky tight ends: 12

Kentucky sacks: Three

Freshmen who make their debut: Seven

THE LAST WORD

Defensive coordinator Brad White on opening week nerves:

“I get nervous into every game. Because every game is different. Every game is new, whatever happened the week before. Obviously the first game there might be some extra, just because you’re not exactly sure what team you have. You think you know, but you don’t know until you play ball. You know maybe what kind of top end you have, but you don’t know how low it could go. The goal is not to have a low floor. It’s to have a high floor and a high ceiling.”

This story was originally published September 1, 2023 at 7:57 AM.

Jon Hale

Lexington Herald-Leader

(859) 414-6776

Jon Hale is the University of Kentucky football beat writer for the Lexington Herald-Leader. He joined the Herald-Leader in 2022 but has covered UK athletics for more than 10 years. Hale was named the 2021 Kentucky Sportswriter of the Year. Support my work with a digital subscription