How Kentucky football and Auburn match up — with a game prediction

How the Kentucky Wildcats (3-4, 1-4 SEC) and the Auburn Tigers (2-5, 0-4 SEC) match up at each position for Saturday’s SEC football contest — with a game prediction:

Quarterbacks

▪ Kentucky’s Brock Vandagriff (1,116 passing yards, six touchdown throws, four interceptions, 57.6 percent completions) did not have one of his best games in UK’s disappointing 48-20 loss at Florida last week. The 6-foot-3, 217-pound redshirt junior from Bogart, Georgia, completed only 12 of 26 passes in Gainesville for 165 yards with one touchdown and two interceptions. Vandagriff ran eight times for a net of 33 yards vs. the Gators. Still being used as a run-oriented, change-of-pace QB, former Owensboro High School star Gavin Wimsatt (33 rushes, 128 yards, two touchdowns) carried four times for 8 yards and a touchdown at Florida.

▪ Auburn’s Payton Thorne (1,414 passing yards, 11 TDs, six picks, 59.5% completions) lost the Tigers starting job after he threw four interceptions in the Tigers’ 21-14 loss to California on Sept. 14. Tigers coach Hugh Freeze inserted redshirt freshman Hank Brown (403 passing yards, six touchdowns, three interceptions, 62.7 percent completions) as the Auburn starter. The 6-4, 208-pound Brown played well in his first start, completing 17 of 25 passes for 235 yards and four TDs in a 45-19 win over New Mexico. However, after Brown threw three picks in the first half of his first SEC start at Arkansas, Freeze went back to Thorne. Last week, in Auburn’s 21-17 loss at No. 19 Missouri, Thorne, completed 17 of 29 passes for 176 yards and a touchdown. A 6-2, 203-pound senior who began his college career at Michigan State, Thorne has not thrown an interception in Auburn’s past two games.

Advantage: Auburn.

Running backs

▪ On its Thursday night injury report, Kentucky ruled senior starting tailback Demie Sumo-Karngbaye (419 rushing yards, four TDs, 4.6 yards a carry; 12 receptions for 108 yards) and Ohio State transfer Chip Trayanum (seven rushes for 26 yards in his season debut at Florida) out for Saturday’s game. That would seemingly mean that redshirt freshman Jamarion Wilcox, who has appeared to be Kentucky’s most dynamic back while averaging 6.1 yards a carry (32 rushes for 230 yards), will get a chance to be UK’s featured runner. True freshman Jason Patterson, who ran for 73 yards on 14 carries in the season’s first two games, will presumably return to the running back rotation, as well.

▪ Auburn’s Jarquez Hunter (585 rushing yards, three touchdowns, 6 yards a carry; nine receptions, 90 yards, one TD) was a second-team All-SEC choice by the league’s coaches last season. A 5-10, 209-pound senior from Philadelphia, Mississippi, Hunter has run for at least 53 yards in every game this season. Damari Alston (190 rushing yards, two TDs, 6.1 ypc) has carried only six times total in Auburn’s past two games.

Advantage: Auburn.

Wide receivers

▪ Kentucky junior Barion Brown (22 catches, 270 receiving yards, three touchdown catches) caught a 45-yard TD pass off a flea flicker in the loss at Florida. Dane Key (35, 500, two) had a relatively quiet game at Florida by his recent standards. After catching at least seven passes in each of UK’s prior three games, the 6-3, 210-pound junior from Frederick Douglass High School caught four passes for 48 yards in Gainesville.

▪ Penn State transfer KeAndre Lambert-Smith (26 catches, 526 yards, six touchdowns) is making a smooth transition to the SEC. The 6-1, 182-pound senior has given Auburn a big-play dimension, as he is averaging a robust 20.2 yards a catch. True freshman Malcolm Simmons (22, 289, two) has made 21 catches combined in Auburn’s past four games. Another true frosh, Cam Coleman (10, 295, two), caught a 47-yard TD pass in last week’s loss at Missouri. A 6-3, 197-pound product of Phenix City, Alabama, Coleman is another big-play threat — he is averaging 29.5 yards a catch.

Advantage: Auburn.

Tight ends

▪ Kentucky’s Josh Kattus (two catches, 24 yards) had a 21-yard reception at Florida. Junior Jordan Dingle (seven receptions, 54 yards, one TD) has caught only one pass in UK’s past three games.

▪ Auburn super-senior Rivaldo Fairweather (17 catches, 191 yards, one touchdown) has caught at least 10 passes in all five of his college seasons. The 6-4, 252-pound product of Lauderhill, Florida, played his first three college seasons for Florida International. Luke Deal has caught only two passes for 3 yards this season, but one of the receptions was for a touchdown.

Advantage: Auburn.

Offensive line

▪ Kentucky redshirt freshman tackle Malachi Wood logged 31 snaps at Florida, his first extended playing time in an SEC game. “I was pleased with him,” Mark Stoops says of the 6-8, 320-pound Madison Central High School alumnus. With UK listing starting right tackle Gerald Mincey as “out” for the Auburn game on its inital injury report this week, it seems likely Wood will make his first college start vs. the Tigers.

▪ Auburn has had a revolving door at left tackle. Redshirt freshman Tyler Johnson started the season’s first two games, but was benched after struggling in the Tigers’ 21-14 loss to California in week two. Johnson was replaced by Mississippi State transfer Percy Lewis IV. However, in last week’s loss at Missouri, Lewis was pulled by Hugh Freeze after only three plays. Starting left guard Dillon Wade, who started at left tackle last season for Auburn, moved outside to replace Lewis for the remainder of the Mizzou contest. Freeze said at his Monday news conference that the Auburn coaching staff “would continue to look (at the left tackle position) this week.”

Advantage: Even.

Defensive line

▪ Kentucky senior defensive end Octavious Oxendine, a 6-1, 278-pound North Hardin alumnus, has sacked the quarterback twice and hurried the QB three times in 2024. Star junior tackle Deone Walker, the 6-6, 345-pound Detroit product, has made 25 tackles, three tackles for loss and broken up two passes.

▪ End Keldric Faulk, a 6-6, 288-pound sophomore, has been disruptive. The Highland Home, Alabama, product has made 29 tackles, nine tackles for loss, five sacks, five QB hurries and broken up a pass.

Advantage: Even.

Linebackers

▪ Kentucky SLB Alex Afari had a big statistical showing at Florida. The 6-2, 222-pound junior from Cincinnati made seven tackles, 1.5 sacks and 2.5 tackles for loss. “Alex is doing some good things, moving him around a little bit, playing that outside, the medium position, playing some inside, still getting acclimated to the inside reps, but doing some good things,” Mark Stoops says.

▪ Auburn outside linebacker/rush end Jalen McLeod is having a big season. A 6-1, 236-pound redshirt senior who played his first three college seasons at Appalachian State, McLeod has 32 tackles, 9.5 TFL and five sacks. MLB Dorian Mausi, a super-senior who played the first four seasons of his career at Duke, leads the Tigers with 40 tackles and has made five TFL.

Advantage: Kentucky.

Defensive backs

▪ Kentucky free safety Jordan Lovett has made nine tackles in each of UK’s past two games. The 6-2, 205-pound North Hardin product has 36 tackles on the season, one out of the Wildcats team lead. Strong safety Kristian Story, a transfer from Alabama, made an interception and returned it 63 yards in the loss at Florida.

▪ Auburn boundary safety Jerrin Thompson has made 35 tackles and broken up three passes. A transfer from Texas, Thompson picked off three passes last season for the Longhorns. Cornerback Kayin Lee has broken up four passes and intercepted one.

Advantage: Kentucky.

Special teams

▪ Kentucky’s Barion Brown returned a kickoff 99 yards for a touchdown in the loss at Florida. It was the fifth kickoff return TD of Brown’s career, which set a Southeastern Conference record. After an errant snap played a role in Alex Raynor’s first missed PAT of 2024, UK replaced long snapper Alex McLaughlin with Walker Himebauch, who handled those duties for Kentucky most of last season. Place-kicker Raynor is 11-of-11 on field goal attempts. Punter Aidan Laros is averaging 43.5 yards a kick on 11 punts and has pinned foes inside their 20-yard line twice.

▪ Auburn place-kicker Towns McGough is 5-of-10 on field goal attempts with a long make of 32 yards. Punter Oscar Chapman is averaging 43.6 yards on 22 kicks and has pinned opponents inside their 20-yard line seven times. Auburn’s return game is good: Keionte Scott has averaged 7.6 yards on 10 punt returns, while Jeremiah Cobb has averaged 24.7 yards on 11 kickoff returns.

Advantage: Kentucky.

Prediction

Auburn 21, Kentucky 19.

This story was originally published October 24, 2024 at 10:00 AM.

Mark Story

Lexington Herald-Leader

859-444-4731

Mark Story has worked in the Lexington Herald-Leader sports department since Aug. 27, 1990, and has been a Herald-Leader sports columnist since 2001. I have covered every Kentucky-Louisville football game since 1994, every UK-U of L basketball game but three since 1996-97 and every Kentucky Derby since 1994. Support my work with a digital subscription