For Mark Stoops and UK football, 5 games will determine the Wildcats’ 2025 fate
In college football’s era of “super conferences,” the schedules assigned to teams by their leagues play a massive role in determining the season outlooks for programs.
That reality is best illustrated by comparing the SEC slates of Kentucky and Missouri.
There were three Southeastern Conference teams — Georgia, Tennessee and Texas — that made the 2024 College Football Playoff.
In 2025, Missouri will play none of them. Kentucky will face all three.
There were five SEC teams in 2024 that produced seasons with double-digit wins.
This coming season, Missouri will face none of those teams. Kentucky will play four.
Conversely, last year, there were four SEC teams that finished with overall losing records.
This season, Missouri will face three of those teams. Kentucky will play none.
Suffice to say, the schedule that UK has been assigned in the first two seasons of the 16-team SEC has been formidable.
Still, even with Mark Stoops and the troops coming off 2024’s 4-8 slog, there appears to be a narrow path to bowl eligibility for the Wildcats in 2025.
Assuming Kentucky can defeat MAC foe Eastern Michigan (5-7 in 2024) and FCS opponent Tennessee Tech (7-5), then whether UK can navigate the route to the postseason probably depends on the outcome of these five contests:
TOLEDO
When and where: Aug. 30 at Kroger Field.
Reasons to worry: This shapes up as a tricky season opener for a UK team entering 2025 with a dramatically revamped roster.
A season ago, Toledo went on the road and pulverized an SEC team in its own stadium. Coach Jason Candle’s Rockets routed Mississippi State 41-17 in Starkville.
Reasons for optimism: As Kentucky head coach, Stoops has never lost (11-0) to a Mid-American Conference foe.
Last season, UK faced a MAC team, Ohio (11-3), that had a better year than did Toledo (8-5). The Wildcats routed the Bobcats 41-6.
MISSISSIPPI
When and where: Sept. 6 at Kroger Field.
Reasons to worry: Kentucky stunned then-No. 6 Ole Miss 20-17 last year in Oxford. That loss to UK probably kept Mississippi (10-3 in 2024) out of the College Football Playoff.
Avenging that defeat would figure to be a powerful motivator for Ole Miss coach Lane Kiffin and the Rebels.
Reasons for optimism: Since Kiffin became Ole Miss coach in 2020, Kentucky has consistently played Mississippi to the wire.
The three games between the Wildcats and the Rebels under Kiffin have been decided by one, three and three points, albeit with Ole Miss winning two of the three.
SOUTH CAROLINA
When and where: Sept. 27 at Columbia.
Reasons for worry: Since Shane Beamer was hired as South Carolina head man, the Gamecocks are 3-1 vs. Kentucky and have won three straight.
In its four tries against South Carolina defensive coordinator Clayton White’s units, UK has never scored more than 16 points in a game.
Reasons for optimism: Six of the Gamecocks defenders that throttled Kentucky in last season’s 31-6 demolition of UK in Lexington are projected to be chosen in the 2025 NFL draft.
That’s a lot of defensive production that South Carolina must replace.
AUBURN
When and where: Nov. 8 at Auburn.
Reasons for worry: A season ago, an Auburn team that would finish 5-7 overall came to Lexington and gashed the Kentucky run defense for 324 yards in a 24-10 victory.
In the last 20 meetings between UK and Auburn dating to 1967, the Wildcats are 1-19 vs. the Tigers.
Reasons for optimism: The one Kentucky win vs. Auburn in the last 20 came at Jordan-Hare Stadium, a 21-14 UK victory, in 2009.
Presumptive Kentucky starting quarterback Zach Calzada figures to be keenly motivated to beat Auburn. Calzada spent an unhappy season (not) playing for the Tigers in 2022.
Of his time at Auburn, “I got a bad taste in my mouth from a couple of things and a couple of people, and I had some regrets, but I know now it was all for a reason,” Calzada said in February during a UK football media availability.
VANDERBILT
When and where: Nov. 22 at Nashville.
Reasons for worry: After suing the NCAA for an extra year of eligibility and getting an injunction that will allow him to play in 2025, Vandy star quarterback Diego Pavia is back at the offensive controls for Clark Lea’s Commodores.
In Vanderbilt’s 20-13 win in Lexington last season, Pavia ran for 53 yards and threw for 143 yards and two touchdowns.
Reasons for optimism: For whatever reason, Kentucky in recent years has played Vanderbilt much better in Nashville than in Lexington.
While UK is 2-2 vs. Vandy in the past four meetings at Kroger Field, the Wildcats are 4-0 in the past four games vs. the Commodores in the Music City.
The Wildcats have won those four games in Nashville by an average margin of 20.25 points.
In the big picture, if the Cats could win early-season games vs. Toledo, Ole Miss and South Carolina, it might produce enough positive mojo for Kentucky to be competitive later in the schedule against annual rivals Tennessee, Florida and Louisville.
For all the gloom this offseason about Kentucky’s 2025 football prospects, four wins vs. “the pivotal five” would probably be enough for the Wildcats to regain bowl eligibility.
As the saying goes, that would not be nothing.
2025 UK football schedule
Aug. 30: TOLEDO
Sept. 6: OLE MISS
Sept. 13: EASTERN MICHIGAN
Sept. 20: OFF
Sept. 27: At South Carolina
Oct. 4: At Georgia
Oct. 11: OFF
Oct. 18: TEXAS
Oct. 25: TENNESSEE
Nov. 1: At Auburn
Nov. 8: FLORIDA
Nov. 15: TENNESSEE TECH
Nov. 22: At Vanderbilt
Nov. 29: At Louisville
