Searching for an edge in your NCAA tourney pool? These 10 tips could help you win
AI-generated summary reviewed by our newsroom.
- Don’t pick against 1–3 seeds in round one; they dominate lower seeds.
- Favor KenPom dual‑qualifiers and teams in week‑six AP top‑12.
- Target upsets in 4–13, 5–12 and 6–11; deep Cinderellas rarer.
Is the March Madness staple known as the “Cinderella” team a thing of the past?
As ESPN.com’s David Purdum recently pointed out, the 67 games of the 2025 NCAA Tournament yielded only 13 wins for outright underdogs.
Only one double-digit seed reached last year’s round of 16 — and that squad, No. 10 seed Arkansas, was not exactly a small-conference charmer.
Last year’s Final Four was a festival of chalk, with all four No. 1 seeds advancing to the national semifinals.
The working hypothesis is that the combination of unlimited player transfers and NIL payments has served to eliminate the factors — think experienced rosters with continuity in coaching systems — that once fueled mid-major teams on Cinderella runs.
So in your office pools for the 2026 NCAA Tournament, should you forsake picking any upsets?
Bear with me, and I will share my view.
Here are 10 tips that could help you win your 2026 NCAA Tournament pool.
1. What to make of conference tournament outcomes. The past two NCAA men’s champions, Connecticut (2024) and Florida (2025), each won their league tournaments.
Yet in March Madness history, winning league tourney titles has not been a strong predictor of impending NCAA Tournament championships.
Of the 10 most recent NCAA title winners, six did not win their conference tournaments. Since the NCAA Tournament bracket expanded to at least 64 teams in 1985, only 18 of 40 NCAA champs won their league tournament.
Rather than telling you whom to pick, what conference tournaments actually do is tell you who not to choose. Since 1985, no team that failed to win at least one game in its league tourney has gone on to win the NCAA championship.
2. There’s little reason to pick against top three seeds in round of 64. After Kentucky lost to No. 15 seed Saint Peter’s in 2022 and to No. 14 seed Oakland in 2024, the Big Blue Nation is keenly aware that jaw-dropping upsets do happen in the NCAA Tournament.
Still, history says it’s not wise to pick against the top three seeds in the round of 64.
Over the past five tourneys, No. 1 seeds are 19-1 vs. 16 seeds; No. 2 seeds are 17-3 vs. No. 15s; and No. 3s are 18-2 vs. No. 14s.
3. No. 1 seeds tend to make the round of 16. Over the past two NCAA tourneys, all eight No. 1 seeds have advanced to the Sweet 16.
Over the past five NCAA Tournaments, 16 of the 20 No. 1s have made the second week.
4. How much value should you place in programs with strong recent NCAA Tournament records? Since 2016, only five programs have won at least 20 NCAA Tournament games — Gonzaga (25 NCAA tourney victories), North Carolina (22), Duke (21), and Kansas and Villanova (20 each).
All five are projected by ESPN.com’s Joe Lunardi to make the 2026 tourney. Duke (29-2 at the time of this writing) is projected as the No. 1 overall seed. Gonzaga (29-3) is a predicted No. 4 seed, as is Kansas (22-9).
North Carolina (24-7) is projected as a No. 6 seed, with Villanova (24-7) as a No. 7. Yet you should be wary of both coach Hubert Davis’ Tar Heels and coach Kevin Willard and Villanova.
UNC will be without freshman star Caleb Wilson, who has a broken right thumb. Meanwhile, all 20 of the Villanova NCAA tourney wins referenced above came under former coach Jay Wright.
5. No. 1 seeds tend to cut down the nets. Over the past eight NCAA Tournaments, a No. 1 seed has won the championship seven times.
The only exception came in 2023, when UConn won it all as a No. 4 seed.
6. Kenpom “double qualifiers.” Sixteen of the 23 NCAA champs since 2002 have ranked in the top 20 in both adjusted offensive and defensive efficiency in the Pomeroy Ratings on Selection Sunday.
Last season, there were six such teams: Duke (No. 3 adjusted offensive efficiency, No. 4 adjusted defensive efficiency), Florida (No. 1, No. 10), Houston (No. 10, No. 2), Auburn (No. 2, No. 12), Tennessee (No. 18, No. 3) and Iowa State (No. 20, No. 9).
Outcome: Auburn, Duke, Florida and Houston all went to the Final Four. The Gators beat the Cougars for the national title.
Tennessee lost in the Elite Eight.
Iowa State, which played in the NCAA tourney without injured starting guard Keshon Gilbert, lost in the round of 32.
This season, there were five Kenpom “dual qualifiers” through March 10: Duke (No. 1 adjusted offensive efficiency, No. 5 adjusted defensive efficiency); Michigan (No. 4, No. 2); Arizona (No. 7, No. 3); Florida (No. 8, No. 4) and Houston (No. 17, No. 6).
7. Why you should find the week six AP Poll. Starting in 2004, every eventual NCAA champion has come from among the teams ranked in the top 12 of the AP Top 25 poll on week six.
Last year’s NCAA champion, Florida, was rated No. 9 in the week six AP Top 25.
This year, the top 12 teams in the week six AP poll were: 1. Arizona; 2. Michigan; 3. Duke; 4. Iowa State; 5. Connecticut; 6. Purdue; 7. Houston; 8. Gonzaga; 9. Michigan State; 10. BYU; 11. Louisville; 12. Alabama.
Notably absent are SEC regular-season champion Florida and Big East regular-season champ St. John’s.
8. Believe in blue. When Florida, whose school colors are blue and orange, won the 2025 national title, it continued a long-running trend: Since 2004, all but two NCAA champions have had blue among their primary school colors.
The exceptions are Baylor (green and gold), which won in 2021, and Louisville (red, black and white), which won in 2013 but subsequently vacated the national title due to NCAA rules violations.
Among this season’s five Pomeroy Ratings “dual qualifiers,” Arizona (navy blue, cardinal red), Duke (blue, white), Florida (blue, orange) and Michigan (maize, blue) incorporate blue into the color schemes.
Houston (red, silver, white) does not.
9. Are NCAA Tournament upsets a thing of the past? I think the sample size of NCAA Tournament games played under the current NIL/free transfer structure is too small upon which to make sweeping conclusions about early-round upsets.
Even in last season’s chalk-heavy NCAA tourney, five double-digit seeds won in the round of 64. In the round of 32, No. 12 seed Colorado State lost a gut-wrencher to No. 4 seed Maryland, falling 72-71.
10. Where to look for upsets. Most NCAA tourney upsets in recent years have come from three bracket lines: 4 vs. 13, 5 vs. 12 and 6 vs. 11.
A 13 seed has beaten a No. 4 in five of the past seven NCAA tourneys.
Over the past five years, No. 12s are 7-13 vs. No. 5s.
In the same time frame, No. 11s are 10-10 vs. No. 6s.
In the new college sports era, it says here there are still going to be NCAA tourney upsets, even if the deep Cinderella run by mid-major teams may become rarer.
