Trump endorsed Andy Barr. Is the GOP Senate race over? Does Cameron have a shot?
.png "U.S. Rep. Andy Barr, former Kentucky Attorney General Daniel Cameron, and Lexington entrepreneur Nate Morris.")
President Donald Trump picked his horse — Rep. Andy Barr — in this year’s GOP U.S. Senate primary race just 24 hours before the Kentucky Derby.
Since then, the field narrowed, a favorite emerged and contenders are in the final stretch.
What remains of the Republican campaign to replace Sen. Mitch McConnell is largely a two-man race between Barr and Daniel Cameron, the well-known former state attorney general.
Nate Morris, a Lexington businessman previously running on an anti-McConnell, outsider message, bowed out of the race and endorsed Barr. Trump said he would appoint Morris to an ambassador role, though he hasn’t yet said where.
Still, Michael Faris, who has been running a vigorous grassroots campaign but hasn’t put together significant funding to run television ads, could be a factor on election night. His portion of the vote could swing the result.
And the endorsements keep pouring in for Barr: GOP megadonors Joe and Kelly Craft, Senate Majority Leader John Thune and 2nd Congressional District Rep. Brett Guthrie all threw their support behind him in the days after Trump’s big news.
So, where do we go from here?
Is the race over? How did the endorsement come about? And what do the backroom deals say about Kentucky politics — and Morris’ future — going forward?
The Herald-Leader spoke with several politically connected Kentucky Republicans to get a feel for the landscape, with just two weeks to go until election day on May 19.
How did endorsement come about?
If you’ve watched any television in the past several months, you’ll know that Barr and allies supporting him made sure to associate the longtime Central Kentucky congressman with Trump. The same handful of clips where Trump uttered the name “Andy Barr” were milked over and over again to drill that into viewers’ heads.
But how did it translate into Trump actually picking Barr on May 1?
Barr’s former campaign manager, Blake Gober, has some ideas.
He said Barr’s campaign — which began in the middle of the polling pack and has more recently led or tied with Cameron — has been defined by a “slow and steady” attitude.
“For the most part, whenever there’s been noise, Andy Barr and his team have not deviated. They’ve not flinched, and they’ve kept their head down when there’s been noise,” Gober said.
Barr’s campaign has been, for the most part, old school. It was even the subject of derision from Morris, who said Barr was running a playbook from 1960.
Barr and PACs supporting him have dominated cable and broadcast airwaves; he’s secured the endorsements of dozens of state legislators, county judge-executives and more than half of the U.S. House Republican Conference; he practically never deviated from Trump or Republican orthodoxy in his policy talks; and, clearly, his team successfully jockeyed Trump.
Some call it boring. Gober called it smart.
“Unless your plan is showing that it’s clearly not working, you don’t adjust. You keep your head down and you keep moving. No candidate has worked harder to get his name out there and keep moving than Andy Barr. And when you run a disciplined campaign that is everywhere, always, that’s going to do well,” Gober said.
The hits on Morris, clearly seen as a threat to Barr from the jump with his resources and ties to people under Trump like Vice President JD Vance and Donald Trump Jr., were effective and easy to understand.
Putting aside the oft-repeated “fully woke, full of sh*t” ad run by the Barr-supporting Keep America Great PAC, the label of “fake” for Morris drilled into voters’ minds, if only because he was a first-time candidate. If you only meet someone when they’re running for office, they can come off as inauthentic.
Barr’s polling numbers rose slowly over time — maybe a little slower than the campaign would have liked — but the trajectory was positive, and they were able to tamp down Morris’ momentum.
Barr’s endorsement of Ed Gallrein, the Shelby Countian cheered on by Trump to beat Rep. Thomas Massie, is widely seen as a savvy political move. It forced Morris to react and endorse Gallrein himself, hurting him with the anti-McConnell, pro-Massie “Liberty” wing of the state GOP. Barr looked like the tip of the spear, and he wasn’t expected to do well with that crowd to begin with.
There is also the plain fact that Trump likes to pick winners.
Eric Deters, a former candidate for Kentucky governor and congress, knows this from firsthand experience talking with members of the Trump team.
“When I ran for Congress last time, where I didn’t raise any money, Trump world made it very clear to me that they care about two things: money and polling,” Deters said.
In Deters’ estimation, Morris’ connections to Trump’s team, including close foreign policy advisor Steve Witkoff, bought him time to produce viable polling numbers. Those never materialized running against a former two-time statewide candidate and a longtime congressman.
“Trump was just saying, ‘okay, Witkoff and junior, let’s see what he does. Let’s get him going.’ He got (Elon) Musk’s money, but he just never made that big move. And when it gets down to this time Trump’s like, ‘Well, you know, I could endorse him, and he could still lose to Barr. I ain’t gonna do that,’” Deters said.
Though Morris clearly had Trump Jr. and Vance in his corner, even if they didn’t officially endorse, Barr wasn’t without allies in the White House. Newly-minted Department of Homeland Security Secretary Markwayne Mullin endorsed Barr early. He and Trump Chief of Staff Susie Wiles were seen as helpful to Barr throughout the process.
Deters’ assessment of the situation was shared by Tres Watson, a former spokesperson for the state party and Barr supporter.
“Now Trump gets to say, ‘I’m the one who did it,’ but I think he came out for Barr because it was becoming clear that Barr was going to win,” Watson said.
As much as Trump loves winners, he disdains losers. Fairly or unfairly, it’s widely perceived that Trump didn’t like the fact that Cameron lost to Democratic Gov. Andy Beshear in 2023 despite Cameron getting his early endorsement in that race; he penned an acerbic post blaming the “stench of Mitch” at the time.
We also know that Trump has soured to Republican candidates who have been stubborn to support exceptions to abortion bans in cases of rape and incest. Cameron’s positions were the subject of brutal ads from Beshear in 2023, and they’ve carried through to 2026, where he got the full endorsement of anti-abortion rights group Kentucky Right to Life.
Trump reportedly passed on state Sen. Aaron Reed, R-Shelbyville, in the 4th Congressional District race for that very reason.
If you believe that Trump really did not want Cameron as the nominee, and if Cameron’s polling continued to look strong, Trump picking one horse in the race could be seen as a way to cut off Cameron.
The other aspect people mention: Barr is a reliable vote in Congress. The other two candidates are not in the U.S. House, where Republicans have passed Trump-backed legislation on razor-thin margins.
“I don’t think it has anything to do with who’s the ‘Trumpiest;’ it has to do with who does Trump need something from the most over the next few months,” Andrew Cooperrider, a conservative influencer who previously ran for state treasurer, said.
Is the race over? Can Cameron win?
J.R. Franklin, a 22-year-old hospital worker in Glasgow, was one of Morris’ biggest supporters. In his first major foray into politics as a young man, Franklin was Morris’ Barren County campaign captain, and frequently posted in support of Morris on X, formerly Twitter.
When Morris endorsed Barr, Franklin did not follow.
“There was a little surprise and a lot of disappointment,” Franklin said.
Now he calls himself “Never Barr,” listing off all the hits on Barr as an establishment squish, which were amplified the loudest by Morris over the past year. On the flip side, he’s drawn personally to Cameron, who has always been kind to him in-person.
“I was on Team Nate, but Cameron always said hi to me, pats me on the back, asks how I’m doing, so, I think he’s a good person. I agree with a lot of his policies, his politics,” Franklin said.
That contrasts with Barr, he said.
“I don’t know anybody that likes Andy Barr. I think Daniel is going to win over most, if not a strong majority, of Morris supporters like myself. I don’t think his supporters are going to just flip to Barr,” Franklin said.
For Cameron to have a shot, he better hope that’s true.
But most connected Kentucky Republicans don’t see it happening.
Cameron has continually lagged behind the field in terms of fundraising, and the endorsement from Trump will undoubtedly give Barr a boost; he and outside groups are already spending millions of dollars on ads touting it as of Monday.
From a political fundamentals standpoint, Cameron just doesn’t have the scratch to respond or pivot. He ended March with just $765,000 on hand. His campaign started running ads in late April, compared to Barr who has had his message up on TV for many months.
“If Daniel had even $1.5 million, $2 million in the bank, there’s at least the potential to pivot. Even if he wanted to pivot, he doesn’t have the resources to communicate it. At this point, it’s a numbers game,” Watson said.
One move possibly available to Cameron is to lean into Sen. Rand Paul, who recently signaled that he was supporting Cameron in an interview with WHAS. Cameron has already gotten endorsements from several top allies of Paul and Massie. A Paul endorsement is being talked about in political circles, but some question if it would actually help, given that Trump has sparred with Paul in recent months.
For now, it looks like Cameron is keeping his head down and hoping he can hold onto the somewhat odd coalition he’s been building: Liberty Republicans, evangelicals and low-information voters checking off the name on the ballot they know best.
That could possibly be a winning coalition, according to Rep. Josh Calloway, R-Irvington, a popular Liberty GOP figure who has not endorsed in the race. He also said he wasn’t sure if Trump’s endorsement was the knockout punch some think it is, given broad dissatisfaction over the war in Iran.
“I’ve been out knocking doors, and it’s been interesting to hear from people that have moved a little bit. It’s been more of a, ‘We appreciate what he’s been doing, but some of it’s not great.’ You didn’t hear that pre-election,” Calloway said.
For others, the calculation was simple: Trump equals winning in Kentucky.
The stories of GOP candidates beating Trump’s endorsement in a statewide election are rare. Governors Brian Kemp of Georgia and Brad Little of Idaho did it, but they had the advantage of incumbency. That’s not the case for Cameron.
Like Franklin, Republican election attorney Steven Megerle was a strong Morris supporter, helping host events for his campaign.
Megerle is all-in on Barr now.
“President Trump scratched my horse from the Senate race, and I want to be with the winner on election day,” Megerle told the Herald-Leader.
What’s next for Nate Morris?
Morris’ political ambitions have been clear from the jump, since he was a “maverick” fundraiser for President George W. Bush in his early 20s.
In the short term, Trump said he’ll appoint Morris as ambassador— to where, he didn’t say.
An early favorite among the chattering class in Kentucky is Colombia, a close ally of the U.S. in South America and the Caribbean Sea. It’s also the country of origin for many of the boats shot down by U.S. forces suspected of smuggling drugs like cocaine.
Being U.S. ambassador to Colombia would add to Morris’ political resume and also give him the chance to be “in the mix” when it comes to Trump’s efforts to reshape the region, having recently deposed former Venezuelan President Nicolas Maduro and weighing options for regime change in Cuba.
Some other factors working in Colombia’s favor: Sen. Bernie Moreno, a strong ally of Morris’, was born there and has ties to officials in that country; the country’s presidential election will be held at the end of this month, which could line up well with the naming of a new U.S. ambassador.
There are tons of other vacancies, according to the American Foreign Service. Ukraine, a country that Morris took a strong stance against early in his campaign, has a new opening. Other high-profile names include Egypt, Germany and Nigeria.
Megerle said he suspects this year won’t be the last Kentuckians see his name on the ballot.
“I have no doubt we will see soon-to-be ambassador Morris running for office, and he will certainly be a winner next time.”
A couple options for Morris: run alongside Rep. James Comer in his highly likely comeback bid for governor in 2027 or run for U.S. Senate in 2028.
Most of the talk in the immediate aftermath of Morris’ move centered on running in 2028, potentially against Paul.
Paul is considering running for reelection, president or both, like he did in 2016 when the state party switched to a caucus primary to accommodate him. Running for both again, some speculate, might open him up to a well-funded challenger like Morris.
But it was not so long ago that Morris was closely tied to Paul’s political career.
“Rand Paul Money Man Leverages Trash Contacts for Political Cash,” reads one headline from Paul’s first term as a U.S. Senator, beginning to angle for the 2016 nomination.
And this year, Morris tried to court the Paul-Massie wing of the party before endorsing Gallrein.
“It’s just weird. I met (Morris) at a Massie event with Massie supporters. I don’t know if he feels like he can do that and then turn around and go against that very dynamic that he started in,” Calloway said.
