Will Kentucky get snow for Christmas this year? Here’s what Farmers’ Almanac predicts
Christmas is less than a month away, and we’ve entered an El Niño pattern, which may bring drier-than-usual conditions to Kentucky.
But the weather pattern could last multiple years, and it doesn’t necessarily mean Central Kentucky residents will see an entirely dry winter.
Here’s what the Farmers’ Almanac predicts for weather in Kentucky this Christmas, along with a seasonal outlook from the National Weather Service.
Farmers’ Almanac prediction
The Farmers’ Almanac has released a Christmas forecast for 2023, including weather predictions for Dec. 24 to Dec. 27. Kentucky is in the almanac’s Zone 2, along with Ohio, Michigan, Indiana, Illinois and Wisconsin.
Here’s what the Farmers’ Almanac predicts for Christmas weather in Zone 2: “Looks like any wintry precipitation comes to an end bringing clear skies for holiday events.”
The almanac makes predictions based on a mysterious formula that considers factors such as planetary positioning, sunspot activity and tidal action of the moon.
“The only person who knows the exact formula is the Farmers’ Almanac weather prognosticator who goes by the pseudonym of Caleb Weatherbee,” the organization’s website says. “To protect this proprietary formula, the editors of the Farmers’ Almanac prefer to keep both Caleb’s true identity and the formula a closely guarded brand secret.”
The almanac has provided extended forecasts since 1818, according to its website.
National Weather Service forecast for snow
As for the traditional weather outlook, the National Weather Service reports Northern Kentucky has a 40% to 50% of seeing above-normal temperatures from December to February, while the southern half of the Bluegrass State has a 33% to 40% chance of warmer weather.
Most of the state has roughly equal chances of above- or below-normal precipitation for the three-month period, the NWS reports, but a small sliver of Northern Kentucky has a 33% to 40% probability of below-normal precipitation.
Kentucky has a 0% to 25% historical probability of a white Christmas, depending on the area, according to weather service data on snowfall from 1981 to 2010.
Some milestones for the first snow in the Lexington area have already passed. According to NWS data from 1893 to 2021, the average first trace of snow falls Nov. 13, while the average for the first measurable snowfall in the area is Nov. 29.
The first trace snow in Lexington this year was recorded Oct. 31, according to the NWS.
The NWS typically releases more detailed forecasts a week at a time.
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This story was originally published November 30, 2023 at 10:47 AM.
