Kentucky football predictions: Can Cats overpower Missouri in SEC opener?
It’s almost football time in the Bluegrass! Here are some final thoughts and predictions about how Kentucky’s matchup with Missouri might play out at Kroger Field on Saturday.
Trenches
Missouri whooped Kentucky on both sides of the line of scrimmage last year, evidenced by the Tigers’ ability to control the ball — they held it for 43 minutes and 10 seconds — and efficiency on third and fourth down (a combined 14-of-25; Kentucky was 2-for-9). It was unsettling to see the Cats get manhandled at the point of attack by a team of similar stature; ‘Bama doing it is one thing, but Mizzou?
The last year has hinted at a possible changing of the guard in terms of who’s “next best” in the SEC Eastern Division after Georgia and Florida. Kentucky suffered its first loss to the Tigers since 2014, handing first-year head coach Eli Drinkwitz an extra bill to sell on the recruiting trail a week after his squad upset LSU, the reigning 2019 national champion. He’s parlayed a 5-5 record in year one into what is, as of this week, a top-15 recruiting class in the 2022 cycle, per 247Sports; UK currently sits 35th in those same rankings.
Kentucky has scraped its way out of the basement and become a respectable football program. Drinkwitz showed up and has Mizzou threatening to steal the Cats’ thunder. For UK, overwhelming the Tigers with strength on the inside has far greater ramifications than it has previously. It needs to deliver a simple message: We’re not going anywhere.
That starts up front.
“We’ve got to do much better on (third) down and distance,” defensive coordinator Brad White said this week. “We didn’t get any turnovers on Saturday and we didn’t get any last year against Missouri, so that’s obviously an area that we need to be able to provide the offense a short field to operate and not have to make all these drives that are long and extensive.”
Central Michigan, a Mid-American Conference school, was able to convert on 44.4 percent of its third-down opportunities (8-for-18) while holding Missouri to a 1-of-11 clip last weekend in Columbia. The Chippewas were successful on third down 28.24 percent of the time in a six-game 2020 season while giving up about 45 percent of their opponents’ tries. A one-game sample isn’t much to go on, but Kentucky of course needs to force, and hold, Mizzou into as many third-down situations as possible while excelling in their own opportunities. The Cats, who converted 36.62 percent of the time last year, went 6-for-11 against Louisiana Monroe.
The Tigers did manage to come up with nine sacks against CMU, their most in a game since 2000. UK gave up four sacks, three with the first-team offense in, against ULM. Offensive coordinator Liam Coen and offensive line coach Eric Wolford didn’t seem too stressed about the Cats’ pass protection, though.
“Some sacks were on them and some weren’t,” Wolford said. “Every time there’s a sack, it’s not always on the o-line. You gotta remember that.”
The three B’s
Quarterback Connor Bazelak, running back Tyler Badie and linebacker Blaze Alldredge all came up big in Mizzou’s win over Central Michigan.
Bazelak, a one-time Kentucky recruit, was 21-of-32 for 257 yards and two touchdowns, but it was Badie’s breakout performance — 203 yards and a touchdown on 25 carries — that lifted Mizzou’s offense down the stretch. He rushed for more than 100 yards in the fourth quarter after the Chippewas pulled within 24-21 with 11:52 left. The Tigers mostly put the ball in his hands in two of their final three drives and were able to ice the visitors.
The 5-foot-8, 194-pound senior had never rushed for more than 79 yards in a game before last week. He had 52 yards on 13 carries against the Wildcats last year while playing behind Larry Rountree III, who became the first Tiger in three years to rush for more than 58 yards against Kentucky; he had 126.
My hunch is Bazelak will present more issues for Kentucky than their undersized running back, whose effectiveness will be tamed if the sophomore signal-caller is held in check. White said Bazelak’s ball-placement ability and efficiency make him an effective quarterback. This week will be his first time starting on the road in front of a legitimately sized crowd.
“The ball comes off his hand really easily, he doesn’t strain to throw the routes,” White said. “He doesn’t make a lot of bad decisions, so that’s hard. As a defense you think, ‘OK, maybe I can fluster a guy and we can fluster him into a bad decision.’ He doesn’t. He’s very poised in the pocket.”
Alldredge, a graduate transfer out of Rice, recorded 10 tackles (eight solo), six for losses, and 3.5 sacks. The two-time All-Conference USA First Team selection often benefited from being sent as an extra rusher when Mizzou’s front four couldn’t get enough pressure against CMU’s front. Drinkwitz on the SEC’s weekly teleconference suggested that might not be feasible against Kentucky.
“That always creates an issue on your back end, and creating one-on-one matchups, and it’s pick your poison versus Kentucky,” Drinkwitz said. “If you try to add on you’re gonna have three elite wide receivers that are in man-to-man matchup issues with a quarterback who’s able to find ‘em. If you play back, then you’re in zone coverage and they’re able to run their post, shoot concepts, their cross-country concepts. They do a good job of putting you in conflict.”
Coen singled out edge rusher Trajan Jeffcoat, a First Team All-SEC selection by The Associated Press and coaches last season, as one of several Mizzou defensive linemen with bothersome length and athleticism. He thinks UK has to be constantly mindful of extra rushers entering the fray, regardless of whether Mizzou actually sends them.
Final predictions
Kentucky 31, Missouri 14: This would very much buck the trend of where this series has been, score-wise. Outside of Mizzou’s last visit to Lexington, a lopsided 29-7 decision in UK’s favor played in the rain, no game over the last seven has been decided by more than two scores. Three were decided by a single possession, and one by a single point. During head coach Mark Stoops’ tenure the series tally is 177-177.
Expect Kentucky to come more aggressive with its run game early. Coen and Stoops frequently since the opener have brought up “yards left on the field” by their rushers, and while it didn’t matter against Louisiana Monroe, cleaning that up against Missouri is a must. It’ll pay dividends in the present and down the road.
“That comes with reps,” Coen said. “There’s a lot of things that we’re doing offensively, especially in the run game, that’s very new for these guys and I think they’re doing a great job picking it up, but I think you’ll see, hopefully, a step from game one to game two in that area.”
MVP: Yusuf Corker. Bazelak didn’t throw an interception last week, but Corker will not leave him unblemished in week two. He grabs one that leads to UK’s final back-breaking touchdown drive in the fourth quarter.
Good gamble: If, like me, you think Kentucky is going to be motivated to pour it on against Mizzou, betting it to get to 30 points before the Tigers do would return as much money as picking the Cats to cover the 5-point spread (-110). The same bet, but to 20 points, can be had at -190, which is slightly better than taking UK on the money line (-210).
The last word
UK nose guard Marquan McCall, speaking about his recently announced NIL partnership with Central Equipment, a Lexington-based business that specializes in lawn and farming equipment.
“I used to cut a lot of grass back in my day. Back at home I used to cut grass for 20 dollars a yard. Hey, you gotta make your money, man.”
