What to make of the shrinking point spread for Kentucky’s opener vs. Toledo
AI-generated summary reviewed by our newsroom.
- The spread for Kentucky's opener vs. Toledo has fallen from 12.5 to 7.5 points.
- Toledo returns standout players, including its quarterback and top receiver.
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Pessimism about Kentucky football’s 2025 outlook appears to have shown up among gamblers betting on the season opener versus Toledo.
Despite a disastrous 4-8 2024 season, Kentucky opened as a 12.5-point favorite in May. That spread had been bet down to 7.5 points at DraftKings with less than a week until the game.
An SEC team being only a single-digit favorite at home against a Mid-American Conference team is enough to turn heads, but there are plenty of reasons to expect a close game and even give serious credence to Toledo’s chances at pulling off the upset.
“I believe they’ve got votes in the AP poll and we don’t,” defensive coordinator Brad White said as the Wildcats shifted focus to Toledo prep last week. “… If you look at them historically, how well they’ve played under Coach (Jason) Candle offensively, they’ve moved the ball, they’ve given people a bunch of fits. And we know. We’ve seen them in 2019 and how well they played in that game.”
Kentucky defeated Toledo 38-24 in the teams’ last meeting in 2019, but that game was tied at 14 at halftime. Toledo has finished .500 or better in each of Candle’s nine seasons as head coach.
Here are three points to consider when picking a winner in the game.
Toledo upset two Power Four teams last season
Evaluating Toledo’s 2024 season is no easy task.
The Rockets moved to 3-0 with a 41-17 blowout of Mississippi State in Starkville but followed that performance with a loss at Western Kentucky the next week. Toledo went just 4-4 in MAC play but capped the season with a 48-46 upset of Pittsburgh in the GameAbove Sports Bowl.
League coaches picked Toledo as the preseason MAC favorite thanks in large part to a strong returning nucleus. Candle and company have something to prove in league play, but the returning Rockets will certainly not lack confidence in the opener. After winning at Mississippi State a year ago, Toledo will not be intimidated by traveling to play a Kentucky team picked to finish 14th in the SEC.
Toledo returns its quarterback and leading receiver
In an era when Group of Five conference rosters are raided by Power Four schools looking to fill holes each winter, Toledo boasts relatively strong continuity.
Leading the returners is fifth-year senior quarterback Tucker Gleason, who completed 60.5% of his passes for 2,793 yards, 24 touchdowns and eight interceptions last season. Gleason’s top target, senior wide receiver Junior Vandeross, is also back after catching 85 passes for 957 yards and five touchdowns in 2024. The Rockets also return five of their top seven defensive backs, led by nickel back Braden Awls.
There are holes — Toledo must replace its entire front six on defense — but Candle and his staff made several intriguing additions in the transfer portal, too. Kentucky coaches and players will be familiar with at least one of them as former UK running back Chip Trayanum, whose lone season as a Wildcat in 2024 was derailed by a preseason hand injury, is expected to start for Toledo.
Kentucky’s recent history in season openers
The early years of Mark Stoops’ tenure were characterized by lackluster showings in the first game of the season, but that record has improved in recent years.
Kentucky dominated Southern Miss last season 31-0 in a weather-shortened game. It has won its past four season openers by at least 24 points. Its last loss in a season opener was at Auburn in 2020 when the SEC moved to a conference-only schedule due to the COVID-19 pandemic.
But even some of Stoops’ best teams have not looked great in their openers.
The 2018 Wildcats, which went on to win 10 games, led Central Michigan just 21-20 at halftime in what ended up a 35-20 victory. The 2016 Wildcats, the first bowl team of Stoops’ tenure, started the season by blowing a 21-point lead in a 44-25 loss to Southern Miss at home.
On paper at least, Toledo appears to be a more difficult test for Kentucky than recent opening opponents. Southern Miss finished last season at 1-11. None of the past four UK opening opponents finished the season with a winning record.
This story was originally published August 25, 2025 at 7:00 AM.
