Kentucky vs. Auburn prediction: Is this Mark Stoops’ last chance to save season?

Kentucky football’s losing streak versus power-conference competition has reached 11 games. The pressure on Mark Stoops increases with every defeat.

But the schedule at least eases up slightly this week as Kentucky will face an unranked opponent for the first time in more than a month. Still, Kentucky is a double-digit underdog at Auburn, which snapped a four-game losing streak last week with a win over Arkansas last week.

Can Stoops mount one more rally to quiet some of the calls for his job? Here are some final thoughts and predictions about how the game will play out Saturday at 7:30 p.m.

The hot seat bowl

Fans rooting for further chaos in the college football coaching carousel will likely be watching this game closely.

On3Sports ranked Stoops first and Auburn coach Hugh Freeze second on its coaching hot seat list this week. A loss Saturday might not be enough for either school to immediately make a coaching change, but after three straight Sundays of high-profile jobs opening, fans of the losing team will certainly be on alert.

While both coaches are under pressure, the situations are not exactly the same.

Yes, Auburn looks like at least a slightly easier challenge than Kentucky’s past three games against Georgia, Texas and Tennessee, but the Tigers might still be substantially better than Kentucky. Auburn enters the game at 4-4, but all four of those losses came against teams currently ranked in the top 20. None were by more than 10 points, and three were one-score games.

The struggling Auburn offense scored 33 points in last week’s win at Arkansas while playing two quarterbacks. A win over Kentucky would all but guarantee a bowl trip for the Tigers with FCS Mercer still on the schedule.

The hope for Kentucky is Auburn presents a better matchup than Tennessee considering it ranks 90th nationally in points per game (24.8) and 107th in yards per game (340.6). Auburn ranks 119th nationally in passing yards per game (170), which could be particularly important for a Kentucky defense likely to be without two of its top three cornerbacks this weekend.

The next test for Cutter Boley

The final score of last week’s game against Tennessee certainly made it difficult to spin the performance as a positive for Kentucky, but scoring five touchdowns did at least offer evidence that the progress coaches and players have promised was happening behind the scenes could actually translate into more points.

But Tennessee’s defense was without multiple starters and had struggled at times this season even when at full strength. How much of the breakout offensive showing was a product of Tennessee’s limitations and the outcome being decided early in the third quarter?

Auburn should offer a good test of how much more prolific Kentucky’s offense actually is compared to a month ago.

The Tigers rank 21st nationally in points allowed per game (18.6) and 29th in yards allowed per game (318.5). If Kentucky can score more than two offensive touchdowns for the second straight week, the offensive progress will be legitimized.

“You want to see growth and continue to build on the good things we’re doing,” Stoops said. “Ultimately, it’s a bottom-line business. We want to get the win at all costs. Whatever it takes to win the game is what we’re hunting. But you’re not going to do that unless you make progress and make growth in all these areas and put it all together.”

Kentucky football injury report

Even though Auburn’s passing attack has been among the worst in the SEC this season, Kentucky could be in trouble this week with cornerbacks DJ Waller and Terhyon Nichols both out, according to Friday’s availability report. Waller opened the season as the starter but has not played since the season opener. Nichols has started the last six games in Waller’s place.

Now, only JQ Hardaway remains from the primary cornerback rotation. Juniors Nasir Addison and Kevis Thomas and freshman Grant Grayton will likely be in line for larger roles this week.

The news is better on offense, with running back Seth McGowan set to return after missing the Tennessee game with an upper-body injury. McGowan participated in warmups before that game but was not comfortable that he could hold the ball tightly enough to avoid fumbling. He was initially listed as probable this week, then removed from Friday’s update, signalling he is available.

Wide receiver Ja’Mori Maclin, whose role has decreased with the emergence of freshmen Cam Miller and DJ Miller, was listed as questionable Wednesday then downgraded to out Thursday. Reserve linebacker Landyn Watson was initially listed as questionable then upgraded to probable and removed from Friday’s update, indicating he is available.

Wide receivers Troy Stellato and David Washington, linebackers Jacob and Devin Smith, defensive back Jaden Smith, defensive lineman Nic Smith, tight end Elijah Brown and offensive guard Aba Selm are out this week.

Running back Jamarion Wilcox remains suspended after being accused of sexual assault.

Kentucky vs. Auburn prediction

The vibes around Kentucky could not be much worse after the Tennessee blowout, but I can’t help but feel like there’s at least one more twist to this season coming. At this point, that twist would have to come in the form of an unexpected victory. Going on the road might actually help this team escape some of the negativity in Lexington. Kendrick Law takes a couple short passes to the house, and the defense bounces back in a better matchup. Kentucky 24, Auburn 21.

The last word

“I think it motivates me. I think it motivates a lot of guys, the other coaches, the guys in that locker room, defensively, that we have an opportunity within seven days to try to wipe away that feeling in that (Tennessee) game. … There’s a lot of embarrassment and humility coming out of Saturday on all levels, starting with me.” — UK defensive coordinator Brad White

This story was originally published October 31, 2025 at 6:00 AM.

Jon Hale

Lexington Herald-Leader

(859) 414-6776

Jon Hale is the University of Kentucky football beat writer for the Lexington Herald-Leader. He joined the Herald-Leader in 2022 but has covered UK athletics for more than 10 years. Hale was named the 2021 Kentucky Sportswriter of the Year. Support my work with a digital subscription