Before UK football even has a vacancy, coaching carousel spins against the Cats
AI-generated summary reviewed by our newsroom.
- Betting markets list Jon Sumrall as LSU favorite though Kentucky has no vacancy
- Mark Stoops can still save his job, but recent SEC results weaken his case
- Multiple power conference vacancies and buyouts make Kentucky a weak draw
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After LSU announced Sunday it was parting ways with Brian Kelly as Tigers football coach, speculation over who is the leading candidate for that vacancy took an unwelcome turn for Kentucky fans.
According to BetOnline.ag, the 3/2 favorite to be the next head man of the Bayou Bengals is Jon Sumrall. The current Tulane head man, Sumrall is a former UK assistant and ex-Wildcats player who many in the Big Blue Nation covet as the next Cats head coach.
Kentucky does not even have a head football coaching vacancy (yet), but the spinning of the college football coaching carousel nevertheless seems not to be moving in the Wildcats’ favor.
With five games remaining in the 2025 season, it is still mathematically possible that incumbent UK head man Mark Stoops could lead the Wildcats (2-5, 0-5 SEC) to enough victories to remain the top Cat.
Based on the product that Stoops has had on the field over the past two seasons — when UK has gone a combined 6-13 overall, 1-12 in SEC contests — that does not seem the most likely outcome.
Yet even if the UK administration decides to move on, comes up with the $37.7 million to pay Stoops’ contract buyout or negotiates that cost of separation, this is not shaping up as a favorable environment for Kentucky to seek a football coach.
Already, there are eight power-conference head coaching positions open — Arkansas, Florida and LSU of the SEC; Penn State and UCLA from the Big Ten; Stanford and Virginia Tech of the ACC; and Oklahoma State from the Big 12.
In addition to Kentucky (SEC), it is thought that the head coaching jobs at Auburn (SEC), Florida State (ACC) and Wisconsin (Big Ten) could also open.
I am not one who subscribes to the belief held by even some UK backers that it is impossible to succeed in SEC football at Kentucky. Nevertheless, in terms of the attractiveness of a football head coaching job, UK would be a lot closer to the bottom of the above list of vacancies than it is to the top.
Adam Rittenberg of ESPN.com has been ranking the power-conference coaching vacancies as they come open based on a set of five criteria: history of on-field success; access to the College Football Playoff; inherent roster-building advantages/disadvantages; university leadership; and financial support.
Let’s evaluate the Kentucky job based on those factors:
Over the past 10 seasons (counting the ongoing one), Kentucky is 67-54 overall, 32-46 in SEC contests. That is not great, but — even with UK’s competitive downturn of the past two seasons — it is far better than the Wildcats have traditionally fared.
By virtue of being in the Southeastern Conference, Kentucky figures to have multiple access points to the CFP — especially if, as expected, the playoff expands above the current number of 12 teams.
But being in the SEC also means that for Kentucky to claim a CFP berth, the Wildcats would have to overcome multiple football programs which have inherent advantages UK does not enjoy.
Based in a relatively small state where the production of SEC-caliber football players is not consistently robust, Kentucky’s roster building depends significantly on the ability to woo players capable of winning in the Southeastern Conference from other states.
UK’s campus leadership has been unusually stable. Athletics director Mitch Barnhart, 66, has been in place since 2002. Kentucky president Eli Capilouto, 76, has been in office since 2011. However, simply due to their ages, it seems unlikely both will be in place for the entirety of the next UK football coach’s tenure.
As for financial support, the perception that the storied Kentucky men’s basketball program siphons off resources that at other SEC schools are invested in football is one that UK will have to address with coaching candidates should it choose to move its pigskin program in a new direction.
That there are so many high-profile coaching jobs already open or projected to soon become vacant means that the potential coaching candidates who seem to most animate the Big Blue Nation — such as Sumrall and Oregon offensive coordinator Will Stein, a former Louisville Cardinals quarterback — might have access to more attractive jobs than Kentucky.
Whether LSU goes all in with a pursuit of Sumrall will be fascinating.
LSU AD Scott Woodward has long been a notorious “big-name hunter” in his coaching hires. In his previous jobs, Woodward lured Boise State football coaching legend Chris Petersen to Washington and national championship-winning football coach Jimbo Fisher away from Florida State to Texas A&M.
At LSU, Woodward has wooed Kelly away from Notre Dame football as well as Kim Mulkey from Baylor to coach women’s hoops.
Hiring an up-and-coming head coach such as Sumrall, 43, would be a major departure from form for Woodward. Given that both Fisher ($77 million) and Kelly ($53.3 million) wound up being fired with enormous buyouts, maybe Woodward is ready to try a new approach.
As for Kentucky football, the Wildcats’ job is not even open, yet the coaching carousel already seems to be moving against the Cats.
This story was originally published October 28, 2025 at 6:15 AM.
