Kentucky basketball mailbag: When will the Cats start getting some 2021 commitments?
Earlier this week, we asked for your questions related to the Kentucky basketball program’s latest recruiting efforts, the outlook for John Calipari’s 2020-21 team, and anything else of interest related to the Wildcats.
The first round of responses was posted online Thursday morning. This is the second of two mailbags answering some other reader questions:
UK seems like the favorite for Jaden Hardy and Paolo Banchero. They say they don’t plan on announcing until next spring. Cam’Ron Fletcher and Brandon Boston said the same thing but announced earlier. Cal seems to now lock his guys up early, so do you see them announcing a bit earlier and signing in the early signing period?
If you asked this question two months ago, I definitely would have predicted that Banchero — arguably UK’s top 2021 target — would be an early signee. He’s already been on several official visits, cut his list down to six schools, and taken a generally proactive approach to his recruitment. I’m guessing the 6-foot-10 forward would have taken another round of official visits in the late summer and fall to his out-of-town finalists — UK, Arizona, Duke, Gonzaga and Tennessee — and spent some more time on the campus of hometown Washington before making an early decision and signing in November.
Obviously, the recruiting landscape — and the world at large — has changed in recent weeks. While it appears college basketball teams will be permitted to get back on campus in the near future, there has been talk that the NCAA might extend its ban on campus recruiting visits later into the year. The coronavirus pandemic has effectively put the recruiting world on hold, with coaches unable to get updated evaluations of players, and those players unable to meet with coaches in person and take visits to the schools on their lists. As of right now, only one player in the top 25 of the 2021 rankings has committed to a college (AJ Griffin, who picked Duke last fall). I wouldn’t be surprised if more of those five-star players than usual hold off a little longer and take their recruitments beyond the early signing period, especially if they’re unable to get on college campuses until later this year.
Hardy — who, along with Banchero, tops UK’s recruiting board for 2021 — might have been destined to be a late commitment anyway. He hasn’t really taken any recruiting visits, and he just recently “narrowed” his list to 12 schools. Kentucky appears to be in a good spot with the 6-4 shooting guard — a Michigan native now living in the Las Vegas area — but his recruitment has a ways to go, and he’s probably going to want to take a few visits before making a college decision.
So, while it’s certainly true that John Calipari has been landing a few early signees in every class recently — all six of his 2020 recruits committed early — I think this class might look a little different. I do expect UK to sign a player or two by November, but the 2021 cycle might be more of a waiting game than years past.
Do you think Banchero and Kennedy Chandler really team up? If Jeremy Roach returns to Duke, Tennessee gets Mac McClung and UNC returns RJ Davis, does that give Kentucky a good shot even if Devin Askew returns? Will Jaden Hardy, Devin Askew and Kennedy complement each other?
Some background on this question: Banchero (the No. 1 power forward in the 2021 class) and Chandler (the No. 1 point guard in the 2021 class) have talked openly about the possibility of playing together at the same college. Their games complement each other well, and three schools (UK, Duke and Tennessee) are on both of their lists.
Will they actually play together at the next level? Maybe, but my guess right now would be no. While there will continue to be “package deal” talk around Banchero and Chandler, what one does won’t necessarily dictate where the other one goes. They might take some campus visits together. They’ll surely be comparing notes on their recruitments. But, ultimately, they’ll be making independent decisions on the best situation for themselves as individuals.
Since this question was asked, McClung — the talented transfer guard from Georgetown — cut his list to seven schools, and he did not include Tennessee, so there could still be a major opening at the point guard spot there for Chandler, a Memphis native. Roach, the incoming point guard at Duke, isn’t projected as a one-and-done. While it’s worth noting that Chandler and his father have both said he can play with another point guard, he and Roach have pretty similar games. And I just don’t see Chandler ending up at North Carolina. (Memphis is the other school on his list, and I don’t think he goes there, either).
That would leave Kentucky and Tennessee.
Right now, Chandler is UK’s primary target at the point guard spot, but — if making a prediction right now — I’d have to go with the Volunteers, who have done a terrific job recruiting Chandler so far and could build a talented team to showcase his playing style.
As far as how Chandler might fit with incoming UK point guard Devin Askew and fellow five-star guard Jaden Hardy, that would probably be a bit of a stretch. Chandler is a pure point guard, and while Askew has said he wouldn’t mind playing off the ball some if it helps the team, he’ll also need some quality minutes at the point if he’s back for a second season. And while Hardy is often designated as a shooting guard, he’s a terrific passer who is also looking for some point guard minutes at the next level. Calipari has obviously made multiple-point guard situations work well in the past, and getting two of these guys on the same team could definitely pan out, but making it work with all three would be a lot to ask. I just don’t see Chandler and Hardy going to the same school if another talented point guard is already on that roster.
The point guard spot in 2021 isn’t strong. Chandler now being the No. 1 point guard (and outside the top 10 nationally) and has cut his list. Is UK in contact with any other point guards?
With Indiana commitment Khristian Lander’s recent decision to reclassify to 2020 and join the Hoosiers for next season, Chandler is the only point guard recruit in the top 15 of the 247Sports composite rankings for the 2021 class. He’s No. 13 on that list. So, yes, it doesn’t appear to be the greatest cycle for point guards.
A couple of things to keep in mind, though.
One, a lot can change. The players in the 2021 class have, so far, been denied a chance to show off their games this spring. The April evaluation periods have been wiped out, and it’s looking like recruits won’t be back to competitive basketball — with college coaches watching — until the fall. Coaches often don’t get a chance to see many juniors during the high school season, and it’s even difficult for the well-traveled recruiting analysts who come up with the rankings to watch every potential top player in the winter. It’s a safe bet that — when the kids are back in the gym in front of coaches and scouts — at least one point guard in the 2021 class will shoot up the rankings.
Two, there are still some talented playmakers in this group. This reader question specifically mentioned Jalen Warley as a possibility, and Kentucky has indeed touched base with him. Warley is a 6-4 prospect — 247Sports classifies him as a combo guard — who attends the same Philadelphia-area high school that produced former UK targets Mohamed Bamba and Cam Reddish. He has scholarship offers from all over the country, and he’s No. 28 overall in the composite rankings.
Another reader mentioned the possibility of Nebraska standout Hunter Sallis, a 6-3 prospect who 247Sports also classifies as a combo guard. He’s No. 20 in the composite rankings. I had the chance to watch Sallis some at USA Basketball camp in October, and he should be a terrific college player. I also asked around about any UK interest earlier this week and didn’t get an indication that he’s heard from the Cats. He’s a perfect example of a player who could rack up more offers once he’s able to get back in front of coaches and scouts.
The No. 2 point guard in the class behind Chandler is actually Alabama native JD Davison, who is ranked No. 19 overall and has also heard a little from Kentucky.
And then there’s Jaden Hardy, the No. 6 player in the class and the only guard in the top 10 of the 247Sports composite rankings. He’s classified as a combo guard, and I was told this week that he is looking to play some at the point in college.
Other than those players, you have to go all the way down to the No. 39 spot in the rankings — where 5-9 point guard Daeshun Ruffin is slotted — to find another uncommitted point or combo guard.
For the time being, UK seems content to build their relationships with Chandler and Hardy while keeping an eye on some other possibilities and (hopefully) scout some new playmakers this fall.
A couple of more wrinkles to this point guard search: incoming freshman Devin Askew is not projected as a one-and-done player, and UK has been very active with point/combo guards in the 2022 class. (Keep in mind that reclassification is all the rage right now).
Askew doesn’t turn 18 years old until late July, and he seems like a good candidate to play a couple of years in college. He and his family have taken a realistic approach to his development and future expectations. He doesn’t seem like the type to rush off to the NBA if he’s not a first-round pick and there’s further opportunity to improve his draft stock by spending more time in school, and he could very well be back to run the show as a sophomore (or share those point guard duties with someone like Chandler while also flashing his considerable off-the-ball skills).
While UK is in a holding pattern with 2021 point guards, the Wildcats’ coaching staff has been aggressive with 2022 playmakers. Jaden Bradley — the No. 1 available point guard and No. 9 player in the class — has already visited UK, and the Cats appear to be in good early shape with his recruitment. Skyy Clark — the No. 1 combo guard and No. 18 player in the class — has also visited UK, and the Cats should be classified as the early leader for his commitment.
Kentucky has also hosted or visited Georgia natives Scoot Henderson (No. 3 PG) and Bruce Thornton (No. 7 PG), as well as Cincinnati standout Paul McMillan (No. 10 PG).
Clark is considering a move to the 2021 class, and it wouldn’t be a surprise if other talented point guards currently in 2022 take a look at reclassification. Instant-impact guards have also been readily available in the NCAA transfer portal, and UK’s coaches would certainly consider that route if they need to add some experience to the backcourt for the 2021-22 season.
So, while things seem slow with point guard recruiting for the upcoming cycle, Kentucky actually has quite a few intriguing options beyond next season.
Who are UK’s main targets in the ’22 class? Cal usually offers incoming juniors in the spring, but that has changed with this pandemic. I’ve heard rumblings that they aren’t changing the one-and-done rule, and with the NCAA name, image and likeness changes, could we see a lot of kids go to college?
If Kentucky is having trouble sorting out its 2021 recruiting board, imagine just how difficult it is to get a feel for the 2022 class. Yes, in a normal year with multiple spring evaluation periods, Calipari probably would be getting close to sending out some UK scholarship offers to rising juniors. But in this not-at-all-normal year, Tennessee forward Brandon Huntley-Hatfield is the only 2022 recruit with a UK offer, and he’s widely expected to end up in the 2021 class.
On top of the uncertainty of not getting to see much of the ’22 class in person, Calipari and his assistants will have to navigate the new G League program and the possibility that the one-and-done rule is changed to allow players to go straight to the pros (more on that in a bit).
As for the top targets right now — and this will change considerably in the coming months — there are actually several that have been on UK’s radar for a while.
The most obvious is Michigan small forward Emoni Bates, the no-doubt No. 1 player in the class and a young talent that many recruiting analysts think is the best prospect in all of high school basketball, regardless of class. The unanimous No. 2 recruit in the class is Philadelphia big man Jalen Duren, who Rivals recently ranked as the No. 6 high school prospect, regardless of class. Kentucky has been connected to both players.
The No. 3 player in the 2022 class, Chris Livingston — a 6-5 shooting guard — plays his high school ball in Akron, Ohio, but he actually grew up in Kentucky and has already received some recruiting interest from the Wildcats.
Huntley-Hatfield — the No. 4 player in the class — and a talented group of five-star point guards, specifically Jaden Bradley and Skyy Clark, are also top Kentucky targets.
California standout Amari Bailey will definitely be a player to keep an eye on. The 6-4 shooting guard is ranked No. 6 in the 2022 class and played this past season alongside Brandon Boston, who will be UK’s top incoming freshman this season. UK is already familiar with Bailey’s game.
Kentucky has hosted Tennessee small forward Brandon Miller — the No. 11 player in the class — for a recruiting visit. Angola native Sadraque Nganga — a 6-9 forward who plays high school ball in Arizona — has called Kentucky his dream school and implied that he would commit on the spot if he received a UK scholarship offer. He’s No. 15 in the class.
New Jersey guard Zion Cruz, who will play next season at Oak Hill Academy (Va.), is among the other 2022 recruits who have been linked to Kentucky early on. He’s the No. 20 player in the class.
So, the scholarship offers haven’t come yet, but that’s already a pretty large (and very talented) group of potential targets with two more years of high school in front of them. Many other UK targets will emerge when recruits get back to competitive basketball.
As far as possible rule changes affecting the 2022 class, it certainly bears watching.
Not too long ago, it looked like this group might be the first that the NBA would allow to go straight to the draft out of high school. That’s looking less likely now. There doesn’t seem to be agreement among the league’s various decision-makers over the future of one-and-done, and some in NBA circles prefer to see these players play college ball before spending a valuable draft pick on them.
The G League’s revamped preps-to-pros program — offering six-figure salaries to select recruits — could be a short-term answer that keeps one-and-done in place for a few more years. That brings more uncertainty for college coaches, however, particularly those at the top like Calipari, who will continue to pursue the very best players in the country but could get burned by a late, lucrative offer from the G League, especially if the new program finds some early success.
If Jalen Green was able to land a reported $500,000 plus the opportunity for hundreds of thousands more in additional endorsements, how much could someone with potentially transcendent talent like Emoni Bates get?
Now, if the NCAA can come up with a reasonable compromise to its name, image and likeness policy that allows college athletes to make money while still in school, we could see freshmen in college basketball-crazed markets like Lexington earn considerable cash while playing on a national stage. That could be a much more attractive option than the G League’s program. That’s also going to require the NCAA to create an apparatus that genuinely allows top players to make what they’re worth. We’ll see about that.
However it all shakes out, this much is clear: most of the top high school recruits will still opt to play college basketball, and Kentucky appears to be in a great spot to land some highly ranked prospects in that 2022 class.
This story was originally published May 22, 2020 at 7:35 AM.
