High school basketball playoffs: Predictions for every region as the Boys’ Sweet 16 nears
The Kentucky high school boys’ basketball postseason is already underway as we begin to find out who will contend for this year’s UK Healthcare Boys’ Sweet 16 next month in Rupp Arena.
Here’s a look at the favorites, potential spoilers and teams with top players who could get hot and make a run to a regional title and, maybe, state tournament history. All of last week’s district finalists make their respective regional tournaments. Only region champions make the Boys’ Sweet 16.
We’ll start with Central Kentucky’s 11th Region and then make our way around the state. Some of my predictions will be accurate.
11th Region
Favorite: Madison Central (20-11) doesn’t rate as highly as some of the other contenders we could name here, according to the KHSAA’s RPI (18) and Dave Cantrall’s ratings (28). And, for the first time since 2017, the Indians lost the 44th District title to Madison Southern on Thursday night.
But that could make them even more dangerous in the regional.
The defending champs primarily rely on five players, rarely going deeper on the roster, but those include Mr. Basketball candidate Will Hardin (19.8 ppg, 9.4 rpg), sharp-shooting junior Jaylen Davis (18.2 ppg), and the steady presence of senior Robby Todd (12.8 ppg).
Don’t figure on Hardin going 2-for-15 from the field again like he did against the Eagles. If the Indians play at their pace and stay out of foul trouble, they’ll be needing some scissors at the end of the tournament.
Spoilers: Lexington Catholic (26-5) comes in as the region’s highest ranked team (RPI: 17/DC: 7) and it’s beaten everyone here but Madison Central. Consistent big-game plays from Reece Potter (16 ppg), Jack Gohmann (14.3 ppg) and John Reinart (10.5 ppg) could put the Knights in Rupp. Henry Clay (24-8) has the defense to contend with any team in the state but has had trouble finishing off close games despite the playmaking ability of Aziel Blackwell (17.2 ppg) and Kanye Henderson (12.6 ppg). Madison Southern (20-11) struck lightning this week and that could mean this young team led by sophomore Jay Rose (22.1 ppg) won’t have to wait its turn. Paul Laurence Dunbar (14-12) plays stouter than its record suggests and Frederick Douglass (17-14) seems to have hit its stride.
@HLpreps pick: Madison Central.
1st Region
Favorite: McCracken County (24-3), the defending champs, have region player of the year Brant Brower (15.1 ppg) and two more double-figure scorers, but will have to shake off their first loss within the region in the last 50 games after falling to Paducah Tilghman in the 2nd District finals on Tuesday. The Mustangs had won seven straight since an embarrassing 73-36 loss at Bowling Green on Jan. 29. RPI: 4/DC: 29.
Spoilers: Paducah Tilghman (19-8) shocked all of western Kentucky with its district title upset of the Mustangs with big games from Jayvion Powell (16.5 ppg) and Mian Shaw (14.7 ppg). Murray (22-6), led by junior Grant Whitaker (17.3 ppg), ranks 24th in the RPI, but Cantrall has the Tigers back at No. 55. Calloway County (17-13) beat Murray in their district finals.
@HLpreps pick: McCracken County.
2nd Region
Favorite: Lyon County (25-6) features sophomore phenom Travis Perry (26.5 ppg), the coach’s son who incredibly has already surpassed 3,000 points in his career. The Lyons staked their claim as favorite with an 82-56 win over Hopkinsville on Feb. 11. RPI: 37/DC: 33.
Spoilers: Hopkinsville (21-6) can’t be discounted, but can’t let Perry go for 30 points if they meet Lyon County again. The Tigers have four players averaging double figures, led by Daisjaun Mercer (12.8 ppg). Madisonville (22-8) played Lyon close last time out.
@HLpreps pick: Lyon County.
3rd Region
Favorite: Owensboro (21-7) gets the slight nod as favorite despite a tough road loss to Ohio County, 61-60 in double overtime, on Feb. 15. Kenyatta Carbon (20.4 ppg), who’s also a standout football player, and Amari Robinson-Wales (19.8 ppg) are a potent one-two punch. RPI: 50/DC: 37.
Spoiler: Muhlenberg County (15-11) is the defending region champion and beat Owensboro 68-55 last month. The Mustangs also have region player of the year Trey Lovell (12.5 ppg).
@HLpreps pick: Muhlenberg County.
4th Region
Favorite: Warren Central (23-3) has split a pair of games with both of its chief rivals, Bowling Green and Greenwood, and has the fortune of having to face only one of them as the Purples ousted the Gators in the district semifinals. Jaiden Lawrence (14 ppg) is one of four double-figure scorers for the Dragons. RPI: 6/DC 4.
Spoiler: Bowling Green (24-6) has experience as the defending region champ and region player of the year Turner Buttry (23.2 ppg), an Eastern Kentucky commit. It’s not fair to call the Purples a spoiler, really, since the RPI has them at No. 11 and Cantrall puts them at No. 9.
@HLpreps pick: Warren Central.
5th Region
Favorite: LaRue County (24-6) topped John Hardin by 18 on Jan. 10 and beat Campbellsville by 11 on Feb. 15. Carson Childress leads the Hawks in scoring with 15.5 points per game and their roster also boasts one of the top sophomore football quarterbacks in the state in 6-foot-6 Cutter Boley (13 ppg), the younger brother of 2016 Miss Basketball Erin Boley. RPI: 58/DC: 59.
Spoilers: John Hardin (22-9) rates as only a slight underdog at No. 58 in the RPI and No. 65, according to Cantrall, and the Bulldogs have four double-figure scorers led by Jalen Tyus (15.8 ppg). Campbellsville (22-9) features region player of the year Jay Milburn (16.7 ppg, 13.4 rpg).
@HLpreps pick: LaRue County.
6th Region
Favorite: Pleasure Ridge Park (22-6) gets a slight nod, but this region is tightly bunched with any outcome as likely as the next because Western just beat PRP 69-68 in overtime a week ago. The Panthers have a ton of firepower led by Zamareon McCown (18.4 ppg) and Keith Robinson (17.9 ppg). RPI: 22/DC: 8.
Spoilers: Butler (18-13) stunned No. 17 Western in the 22nd District semis. The Bears have come on strong since starting the season 3-5, led by senior forward Mershon Dickerson (16.7 ppg). Then Doss (22-7) handed Butler a 65-51 loss in the district finals. Jeffersontown (21-8) has taken down both Western and PRP this season. Evangel Christian (21-10) could get hot and plays with tremendous intensity.
@HLpreps pick: PRP.
7th Region
Favorite: Male (25-5) established itself as top ‘Dogs after winning the Louisville Invitational Tournament last month with victories over Manual, Ballard and Butler along the way. Louisville commit Kaleb Glenn, a 6-foot-6 junior forward, leads a talented roster with 21.1 points and 12.4 rebounds per game. RPI: 7/DC: 6
Spoilers: Ballard (26-6) was the last No. 1 not named Clark County and absolutely has the depth and skill to defend its region title. The Bruins are led by 6-5 junior forward Gabe Sisk (16.8 ppg) and 6-10 senior center Maker Bar (13.5 ppg). Manual (21-6) showed it’s a threat with a 78-67 upset of Male on Feb. 11. St. Xavier (20-10) will have to play its best games to survive but it has region player of the year Mekhi Smith (16.3 ppg).
@HLpreps pick: Male.
8th Region
Favorite: Woodford County (25-5) lost by a single point to Collins, 53-52, on the road on Jan. 28 and was set to face the Titans again in the 30th District finals. The Yellow Jackets racked up some solid wins this season, including victories over Madison Central, Pleasure Ridge Park and a split with Henry Clay. Jasper Johnson (13.3 ppg) and Jackson Twombly (13.2 pg) lead the way. RPI: 27/DC: 13.
Spoilers: Collins (22-6), with football/basketball standout Kenyon Goodin (19.1 ppg), outranks Woodford in the RPI at No. 15 thanks to its head-to-head win and slightly tougher schedule on average. Oldham County (19-10) will be keen to defend its title led by Samuel Powell (16.3 ppg). Walton-Verona (19-10) has region player of the year Brant Smithers (21.9 ppg).
@HLpreps pick: Woodford County.
9th Region
Favorite: Covington Catholic (25-4) looks like a stone-cold lock with Miami (Ohio) commit and region player of the year Mitchell Rylee (16 ppg) as the secondary option behind junior sensation Evan Ipsaro (22.3 ppg). Still, a loss last month to Ashland Blazer shows the Colonels are vulnerable. RPI: 5/DC: 3.
Spoilers: Cooper (22-6) rates the highest of the challengers with Cantrall putting the Jags at No. 21, and they’ve beaten the likes of Dixie Heights and Lloyd Memorial. Dixie Heights (20-6) is the only other top challenger that has played CovCath this season, but took a 20-point loss to the Colonels on Dec. 3.
@HLpreps pick: Covington Catholic.
10th Region
Favorite: Clark County (30-1) has been the No. 1 team in the state since December, leads the state in scoring at 83.7 points per game and has been crushing opponents by an average of 30.6 points per game. Four players average better than 12 points per game led by junior Jerone Morton (18.8 ppg). RPI: 2/DC: 1.
Spoilers: Of the other top contenders, only Bracken County (22-9) has faced Clark in the regular season, losing by 32 in Winchester on Feb. 14. Mason County (23-5) and Campbell County (19-10) pushed Clark to the brink in the region tournament a year ago.
@HLpreps pick: Clark County.
12th Region
Favorite: Pulaski County (28-2) had the state’s longest unbeaten run snapped by North Laurel on Feb. 8. Gavin Stevens (16.6 ppg), Zach Travis (15.4 ppg) and Cayden Lancaster (14.8 ppg) make a formidable trio of threats. RPI: 9/DC: 18.
Spoilers: Defending champion Boyle County (22-7), led by region player of the year Luke Imfeld (21.2 ppg), took down the Maroons 74-73 in overtime last week. Imfeld had 32 points in that game and the Rebels got 27 points from junior Kason Myers. Lincoln County (26-7) has played Pulaski tough and split a pair of games with Boyle.
@HLpreps pick: Boyle County.
13th Region
Favorite: North Laurel (25-5) has played a difficult schedule this season in hopes of helping avoid an upset loss in the regional like last year. Kentucky commit Reed Sheppard (25.1 ppg), Ryan Davidson (20.1 ppg) and Clay Sizemore (11.7 ppg) are the Jaguars’ top scorers. RPI: 3/DC: 5.
Spoiler: Knox Central (24-7) is the three-time defending region champ and played the Jaguars close last week despite being without leading rebounder Gavin Chadwell (13.3 ppg/8.7 rpg) due to a slight injury. The Panthers also have last year’s region player of the year, Jevonte Turner (18.7 ppg), as a fifth-year senior and senior guard Isaac Mills (16.1 ppg).
@HLpreps pick: Knox Central.
14th Region
Favorite: Perry County Central (26-4), led by region player of the year Landon Napier (15.8 ppg) and Rydge Beverly (11.9 ppg), is undefeated within the region and beat its closest challengers recently — Breathitt County, 67-58, on Feb. 15; Hazard, 42-39, on Feb. 17. But it could be a close call in a rematch with either. RPI: 8/DC: 42
Spoilers: Breathitt County (25-7) has some size with 6-4 Austin Sperry (15.5 ppg), and 6-6 Christian Collins (13.5 ppg) and made a run to the All “A” Classic finals. Hazard (18-10) will need everything to go right.
@HLpreps pick: Perry County Central.
15th Region
Favorite: Pikeville (28-2) was this year’s All “A” Classic champion and only had one loss (to 4th Region power Bowling Green) before getting a reality check last week in a 65-51 loss at Paintsville. The Panthers average four players in double figures led by Rylee Samons (15.6 ppg) and Nick Robinson (14.2 ppg). RPI: 1/DC: 36.
Spoilers: Paintsville (19-8), the defending region champ, proved it can’t be overlooked this year despite Pikeville’s success. Colby Fugate leads the team with 25.3 points per game. Lawrence County (24-7) rates a shot with three players averaging better than 15 points per game led by Cody Maynard (22.4 ppg)
@HLpreps pick: Pikeville.
16th Region
Favorite: Ashland Blazer (23-5) has almost everyone back from a team that made the state semis last year and is looking for its fourth straight region crown. A 64-60 overtime loss to Russell on Feb. 7 is the Tomcats’ only in-state loss to a team not in the top 10. Four players are averaging double figures led by Ethan Sellars (17.2 ppg) and Colin Porter (17.6 ppg) RPI: 12/DC: 16.
Spoilers: Boyd County (21-7) rates as the next toughest competitor, according to Cantrall at No. 41 in the state but fell to Ashland in the 64th District championship game 82-63 on Thursday. Russell (19-7) got 37 points from Brady Bell when they upset the Tomcats. They’ll need more of that.
@HLpreps pick: Ashland Blazer.
Boys’ Sweet Sixteen
What: High school basketball state tournament
When: March 16-19
Where: Rupp Arena
View the bracket: https://tinyurl.com/yp5xbjvm
This story was originally published February 27, 2022 at 6:00 AM.
