High school basketball playoffs: Predictions for every region as the Girls’ Sweet 16 nears
The Kentucky high school girls’ basketball postseason is already underway as we begin to find out who will contend for this year’s Mingua Beef Jerky Girls’ Sweet 16 next month in Rupp Arena.
Here’s a look at the favorites, potential spoilers and teams with top players who could get hot and make a run to a regional title and, maybe, state tournament history. All of last week’s district finalists make their respective regional tournaments. Only region champions make the Girls’ Sweet 16.
We’ll start with Central Kentucky’s 11th Region and then make our way around the state. Some of my predictions will be accurate.
11th Region
Favorite: Franklin County (24-7) looks poised for its third straight title after going 11-0 within the region with none of those games within single digits even against one its top challengers, Berea. The Flyers have size, speed and shoot the ball well enough (44.7% FG) to cause all their rivals problems. If Patience Laster (12.1 ppg, 8.9 rpg) and Nevaeh Carter (11.8 ppg) aren’t held down in some way, Coach Joey Thacker’s team will be headed back to Rupp Arena for the sixth time in eight years. KHSAA RPI: 23/Dave Cantrall rating: 25.
Spoilers: Lafayette (24-6) reached the region finals last year and has region player of the year Anaya Brown (18 ppg, 9.5 rpg) among a core group who learned from that experience. Berea (24-7) rallied from the recent loss of leading scorer Madison Howell to a season-ending knee injury. The Pirates won four straight before stumbling in the 44th District championship to a Madison Southern (21-11) team led by eighth-grader Hadley French (11.5 ppg). Surprising Henry Clay (17-12) and Bryan Station (12-13) play defense well enough to each make a run to the finals.
@HLpreps pick: Franklin County.
1st Region
Favorite: McCracken County (29-1) has not faced a serious challenge within the region and has topped defending champion Marshall County by double digits twice. Wins over Christian Academy-Louisville and Bowling Green put the Mustangs near the top of every state ranking. Destiny Thomas (17.9 ppg), a versatile 6-foot junior, leads the team in scoring in her first season back since an ACL tear. Sophomore Claire Johnson (13.8 ppg) is also a threat. RPI: 2/DC: 5.
Spoilers: Marshall County (22-5) has some experience back from the team that reached the Sweet 16 finals last year, including region player of the year Halle Langhi (15.6 ppg). Graves County (23-6) would need everything to go right to have a shot.
@HLpreps pick: McCracken County.
2nd Region
Favorite: Henderson County (21-4) seems to have a lock on the 2nd as only three teams have kept the Colonels from the Sweet 16 over the last 17 years. Coach Jeff Haile’s team has won 14 straight and is led by juniors Jarie Thomas (14.4 ppg) and Graci Risley (13.8 ppg). RPI:12/DC: 8.
Spoiler: Madisonville (24-5) is the region’s next highest rated team (Cantrall No. 40), and has four double-figure scorers, including region player of the year Camryn LaGrange (15.8 ppg). But they lost to Henderson County by 31 on Jan. 17. LaGrange scored 20 points in that loss and will need help if the Maroons are to avenge it.
@HLpreps pick: Henderson County.
3rd Region
Favorite: Meade County (25-6) lost an early-season battle with chief rival Owensboro Catholic 63-55 on Dec. 7, but has played a tough schedule to prepare for the postseason including taking 6th Region power Bullitt East to overtime on Feb. 7. The Waves are led by Peyton Bradley (20.5 ppg). RPI: 19/DC: 7.
Spoilers: Owensboro Catholic (25-9) has also played a difficult schedule and could also be considered the favorite. The Aces reached this year’s All “A” Classic finals and are led by Karmin Riley (12.9 ppg) and Hailee Johnson (12.4 ppg). Breckinridge County (24-6) has region player of the year Isabel Grimes (17.2 ppg).
@HLpreps pick: Owensboro Catholic.
4th Region
Favorite: Bowling Green (25-7) is the two-time defending region champion and looks to have Coach Calvin Head’s best team yet led by juniors Meadow Tisdale (15.9 ppg) and Tanaya Bailey (11.4 ppg). RPI: 26/DC: 12
Spoilers: Barren County (21-6) has region player of the year Raven Ennis (11.9 ppg) and sophomore standout Abigail Varney (11.7 ppg). The Trojanettes played a close game against the Purples on Feb. 7, a 40-34 loss. Franklin-Simpson (22-3) beat Barren County 50-47 on Feb. 8, but hasn’t faced the likes of Bowling Green this year.
@HLpreps pick: Bowling Green.
5th Region
Favorite: Bethlehem (20-7) gets the slight nod here as a program that has made it to the Sweet 16 two of the last three years. The Banshees are playing well despite graduating two key playmakers from that run. Junior Emma Filiatreau (13.3 ppg) and sophomore Carlie Thurmond (13.1 ppg) have stepped up. RPI: 32/DC: 35
Spoilers: Central Hardin (22-6) has region player of the year Monica Lindsey (19.6 ppg) and the Bruins are tightly bunched with the Banshees in the rankings coming in as RPI No. 36 and Cantrall No. 41. Nelson County (19-11) ousted preseason top 10 Bardstown from the postseason in the district semifinals.
@HLpreps pick: Bethlehem.
6th Region
Welcome to the 6th Region where both top contenders have beaten No. 1 Sacred Heart and each other this season and either could win it all.
Favorite: Bullitt East (27-4) is the defending champ and has consistently been ranked in the top 10. Gracie Merkle, a 6-foot-6 Bellarmine commit and region player of the year, averages 17.6 points and 9.6 rebounds per game. She’s a top candidate for Miss Basketball and leads the state with a field-goal percentage of 71.5. Fellow senior Emma Egan is the Chargers’ chief playmaker, averaging 13.1 points per game. RPI: 4/DC: 6.
Spoiler: Mercy (21-8) took a while to adjust to freshman phenom Leah Macy, who transferred in just before the season’s start. But the Jags have it humming now with four players averaging in double figures led by Macy (20.9 ppg, 12.5 rpg) and freshman guard Alyssa Murphy (14.6 ppg). Though Mercy lost to Bullitt East in Wednesday’s 24th District finals, it’s a sure bet they’ll meet again this week. RPI: 9/DC: 11.
@HLpreps pick: Mercy.
7th Region
Favorite: Sacred Heart (29-3) is the defending state champion and the only losses they’ve suffered this season have come in overtime (Bullitt East on Jan. 30) and double overtime (Mercy on Feb. 13). The Valkyries have their own freshman sensation, 6-foot forward ZaKiyah Johnson, who leads the team with 17.6 points and 7.9 rebounds per game. She joins a team that has every major player back from last season, including Sweet 16 MVP Josie Gilvin, a Western Kentucky commit who is also a co-region player of the year. RPI: 1/DC: 2.
Spoilers: This region has an incredible four top 25 teams, according to the RPI or five going by Cantrall. Christian Academy-Louisville (21-9), Male (20-5), Manual (20-6), and Central (18-12) would be favorites in almost any other region. CAL features co-region player of the year and Donna Murphy Award winner Jaya McClure (15.6 ppg).
@HLpreps pick: Sacred Heart.
8th Region
Favorite: Anderson County (27-4) is the two-time defending region champ who made the state semis last season. Led by Kentucky signee Amiya Jenkins (19.9 ppg), a leading Miss Basketball candidate and region player of the year, the Bearcats have gone unbeaten in region play. RPI: 8/DC: 4.
Spoiler: Owen County (23-9) won the All “A” Classic small-school state title this season, but has been twice beaten by Anderson, including a 71-54 defeat on Feb. 14. The Rebels have three players averaging double figures, led by senior guard Lexie Moore (16.3 ppg).
@HLpreps pick: Anderson County.
9th Region
Favorite: Notre Dame (23-3) has rarely been threatened within the region with wins over both top challengers, Ryle and Cooper. Senior Lacey Bradshaw (13.5) and junior Noelle Hubert (13.4 ppg) lead the way for a team that has only been defeated by Louisville-area powers Sacred Heart (twice) and Bullitt East. RPI: 2/DC: 1.
Spoilers: Cooper (20-9) took down perennial region power Ryle (19-9) in the 34th District finals Thursday and played Notre Dame as close as any rival, losing 55-44 on Jan. 14. Ryle’s Raiders could still be dangerous, however — three players average better than 12 points per game led by Abby Holtman (15 ppg). Dixie Heights (24-7) has co-region player of the year Madelyn Lawson (17.1 ppg).
@HLpreps pick: Notre Dame.
10th Region
Favorite: Clark County (27-2) has dominated most of its competition this year and gone unbeaten within the region led by the Byars sisters — freshman Ciara (17.7 ppg) and junior Brianna (15.7 ppg). The Cards beat their closest rival, Montgomery County, three times, all by double digits, including a 70-53 win in the 40th District finals Wednesday. RPI: 5/DC: 3.
Spoiler: Montgomery County (19-12) has a very good team led by freshman guard Hayden Barrier (18 ppg). If any team is going to knock off Clark, it’s going to have to be the Indians.
@HLpreps pick: Clark County.
12th Region
Favorite: Danville (26-4) unexpectedly got dumped from the All “A” Classic regional by emergent town rival Danville Christian, but avenged that setback with three wins over the Warriors since, including a 63-37 victory Thursday in the 45th District finals. The Admirals are led by Lara Akers (17 ppg), Desiree Tandy (13.3 ppg) and Love Mays (12.5 ppg). RPI: 11/DC: 19.
Spoilers: Southwestern (22-7) has played a wider variety of tougher opponents than Danville and should be battle-tested for a showdown. Ayden Smiddy (14.7 ppg) leads three double-figure scorers. Mercer County (22-7) got a 63-54 win over Southwestern last week and is riding a 12-game win streak.
@HLpreps pick: Danville.
13th Region
Favorite: North Laurel (23-5), led by region player of the year Hailee Valentine (19.3 ppg), has beaten all its chief rivals — South Laurel, Bell County and Corbin — this season and will be looking to avenge the region title loss it took from the Cardinals last year. RPI: 14/DC: 20.
Spoilers: South Laurel (22-8) has won back-to-back region championships under Coach Chris Souder, so it’s impossible to count the Cards out. Bell County (24-7) has won 10 straight since a loss to South Laurel on Jan. 27. Corbin is 22-6 after falling to South Laurel in the 50th District title game.
@HLpreps pick: North Laurel.
14th Region
Favorite: Letcher County Central (23-9) lost last year’s region championship in a heart-breaking four-overtime game that went down as the second longest in Kentucky high school postseason history to district rival Knott County Central. Region player of the year Kaylee Banks (13.5 ppg) is back from that squad. RPI: 63/DC: 73.
Spoilers: Knott County Central (19-10) has won four of the last five region titles and got a win against LCC on Feb. 2. Perry County Central (18-13) and Leslie County (19-12) have played well enough to be considered.
@HLpreps pick: Letcher County Central.
15th Region
Favorite: Pikeville (28-2) has won nine straight since falling to Owensboro Catholic in the All “A” Classic semifinals and is the three-time defending region champ. Trinity Rowe (16.2 ppg), a sophomore point guard, has been a part of that entire run and has standout Belfry transfer Kyera Thornsbury among her weapons. RPI: 7/DC: 15.
Spoilers: Lawrence County (25-7) will need to step it up if they’re to overturn a 67-53 loss to the Panthers suffered on Feb. 1. Shelby Valley (22-9) has region player of the year and Kentucky signee Cassidy Rowe (16.9 ppg), but has yet to solve Pikeville in four tries this season, including Thursday’s 59th District finals, a 49-39 loss.
@HLpreps pick: Pikeville.
16th Region
Favorite: Russell (25-5) is two-time defending champ and returns sensational sophomore Shaelyn Steele (21.8 ppg, 8 rpg), who has thrived as the Red Devils’ primary scoring threat. Russell’s 43-40 loss to Ashland Blazer on Jan. 24 means it’s not a lock for a three-peat, but it will be tough to take out. RPI: 6/DC: 21.
Spoilers: Ashland Blazer (20-5), led by a trio of players averaging 12 points per game in Ella Sellars, Kenleigh Woods and Mikayla Martin, earned a split of two games with Russell in the regular season. Rowan County (24-8) and West Carter (22-9), who has region player of the year Allie Stone (24.1 ppg), are in the conversation.
@HLpreps pick: Russell.
Girls’ Sweet Sixteen
What: High school basketball state tournament
When: March 9-12
Where: Rupp Arena
View the bracket: https://tinyurl.com/ba5j3cva
This story was originally published February 27, 2022 at 6:15 AM.
