Preakness field is shaping up. Will Derby winner Medina Spirit even be the favorite?
The expected starters for the Preakness Stakes on May 15 are coming into focus, and the second leg of the Triple Crown has the makings of a star-studded race.
For the first time in nearly a decade, the Kentucky Derby winner might not be the favorite.
Trainer Bob Baffert — fresh off his record seventh Derby victory — has confirmed that Derby champ Medina Spirit and stablemate Concert Tour will be at Pimlico in two weeks. That duo will apparently be joined by a host of others, including some top finishers from Saturday’s Kentucky Derby.
Trainer Brad Cox was optimistic coming out of the weekend that both of his Derby starters — runner-up Mandaloun and fourth-place finisher Essential Quality — would return to the track for a run at the Preakness.
If Essential Quality shows up, he might be the favorite.
UPDATE: Brad Cox said Tuesday that Essential Quality will not be running in the Preakness.
The online sportsbook BetOnline.ag released odds Monday afternoon showing Essential Quality — the 5-2 Kentucky Derby favorite — as a 5-2 favorite among 12 possible Preakness starters. Medina Spirit, who won the Derby at 12-1 odds, was the 4-1 second choice on that line.
If Essential Quality and Medina Spirit do make it to the Preakness starting gate and the Cox-trained colt does indeed go off as the favorite, it would be the first time since 2012 that the Derby winner ran in the Preakness but was not the top betting choice.
In that 2012 race, Derby winner I’ll Have Another went off as the 3-1 second choice behind Derby runner-up Bodemeister, who had been the favorite at Churchill Downs and was the 8-5 favorite at Pimlico two weeks later. I’ll Have Another ultimately defeated the Baffert-trained Bodemeister in the Preakness.
Cox, while giving credit to the trio that finished ahead of Essential Quality on Saturday, said after the race that his previously undefeated Derby favorite was still “the best horse” that day.
Essential Quality endured a rocky break and a wide trip in the 1 ¼-mile race. As a result, he ran 68 feet farther than Medina Spirit — an estimated 7-8 lengths — and lost by just 1 length.
“Not to take anything away from the top three horses,” Cox told Horse Racing Nation on Sunday, “but he was the best horse yesterday.”
Mandaloun was third in the BetOnline odds at 13-2 after his runner-up finish in the Derby at 26-1 odds. Mandaloun had been a top Derby contender going into the final round of prep races before finishing sixth as the favorite in the Louisiana Derby, a result for which Cox never found a valid excuse. The son of Into Mischief returned to form with Saturday’s run, and it looks like both of Cox’s colts are on track for the Preakness, barring any unforeseen setbacks.
Baffert and Cox also have the co-fourth choices in the BetOnline early odds.
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Concert Tour was viewed as a possible threat to Essential Quality’s Derby favoritism before his disappointing third-place finish in the Arkansas Derby, a result that led Baffert to pull him from the Kentucky Derby altogether. The trainer confirmed to the Daily Racing Form on Monday that Concert Tour would run in the Preakness, and he’s 10-1 on the BetOnline board.
The son of Street Sense breezed 5 furlongs in 1:00.60 on Sunday at Churchill Downs and is expected to have one final workout in Louisville this weekend before moving on to Baltimore.
Also at 10-1 in the early odds is the Cox-trained Caddo River, who finished fifth behind Concert Tour as the favorite in the Rebel Stakes before bouncing back to finish second, just ahead of Concert Tour, in the Arkansas Derby.
Caddo River was removed from Kentucky Derby consideration after spiking a fever, and he worked 4 furlongs in :48.80 on Monday at Churchill Downs. Cox said Monday that he would talk to owner John Ed Anthony — a two-time Preakness winner — about running Caddo River in the race.
King Fury out
Crowded Trade, King Fury, Midnight Bourbon and Ram were all 16-1 in the BetOnline early odds.
Trained by Chad Brown, Crowded Trade nearly won the Gotham Stakes in just his second career start before finishing third in the Wood Memorial and is on track for the Preakness.
King Fury won the Lexington Stakes and was a popular long shot at 20-1 on the Kentucky Derby morning line before he was scratched from the race Friday after spiking a fever. Trainer Kenny McPeek said Tuesday that the fever had flared up again and his colt would not run in the Preakness Stakes.
Trainer Steve Asmussen said Midnight Bourbon, who was sixth in the Derby after missing the break and having to come from further back in the field, was still under consideration for the Preakness. He walked over the Churchill Downs track Monday and was scheduled to do the same Tuesday.
Ram — trained by six-time Preakness winner D. Wayne Lukas — took eight tries to break his maiden but has now won two races in a row following a win on the Derby undercard Saturday. Ram is a son of Triple Crown winner American Pharoah and might run next in the Preakness.
“There is an outside chance,” said the 85-year-old Lukas. “We’ve talked about it, and I don’t know how strong the owner is about it. We’ll take a look at the field and see who is going.”
Kentucky Derby third-place finisher Hot Rod Charlie is expected to train up to the Belmont Stakes, and fifth-place finisher O Besos will also skip the Preakness.
Todd Pletcher is not planning to send any of his four Derby starters to the Preakness, though he could have Lexington Stakes runner-up Unbridled Honor in the race. That colt is 18-1 in the early odds.
The other two contenders on the BetOnline board are Japan-based France Go de Ina and Blue Grass Stakes third-place finisher Rombauer, both at 20-1 odds. Trainer Michael McCarthy confirmed Monday that Rombauer is being pointed toward the Preakness and should ship to Pimlico early next week.
Preakness Stakes
What: 146th running of the second leg of Thoroughbred racing’s Triple Crown
When: May 15, 6:45 p.m.
Where: Pimlico Race Course in Baltimore, Md.
TV: NBC-18
Purse: $1 million
Distance: 1 3/16 miles
For: 3-year-old Thoroughbreds
This story was originally published May 4, 2021 at 7:59 AM.
