Who should you bet on in the 2025 Kentucky Derby? Here’s what the experts say
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Kentucky Derby 151 preview
Click below to view more coverage from the Lexington Herald-Leader and Kentucky.com previewing the 151st Kentucky Derby to be held May 3, 2025, at Churchill Downs in Louisville.
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The 2025 Kentucky Derby is Saturday at Churchill Downs in Louisville, and the Herald-Leader has asked horse racing experts around the country for their top handicapping picks going into the big race.
Santa Anita Derby winner Journalism is the favorite, with Florida Derby runner-up Sovereignty and Arkansas Derby winner Sandman next on the morning line, and Blue Grass Stakes winner Burnham Square, Wood Memorial winner Rodriguez and Japanese star Luxor Cafe were among the other top contenders in the early betting.
Rodriguez, however, was scratched from the race Thursday, and that means Santa Anita Derby runner-up Baeza will get in off the also-eligible list. A few of our experts mentioned Baeza among their picks this week, even when it looked like he wouldn’t get into the race. On Friday morning, Wood Memorial runner-up Grande was also scratched.
Here’s a look at the predictions from our panel, which included some long-shot bets.
John Clay
Herald-Leader
Win: Journalism
Place: Sovereignty
Show: Sandman
Comment: We need outstanding Journalism now more than ever.
Ben Roberts
Herald-Leader
Win: Sovereignty
Place: Journalism
Show: Publisher
Comment: Like the running style, like the progression, like the connections and think Sovereignty is sitting on the biggest race of his career this weekend.
Cameron Drummond
Herald-Leader
Win: East Avenue
Place: Sandman
Show: Tiztastic
Comment: East Avenue is part of a hot early pace, and the long-shot bet finally shows some consistency with a big effort to hold off late-running Sandman and Tiztastic, with the top-three finishers all coming from the outside of the 20-horse field.
Caroline Makauskas
Herald-Leader
Win: Sandman
Place: Journalism
Show: Luxor Cafe
Comment: No stranger to Churchill Downs, Sandman raced three times at the track as a 2-year-old and finished third in the Grade 3 Street Sense back in October. The closer is hitting his stride, most recently winning the Arkansas Derby by 2 1⁄2 lengths over fellow Run for the Roses contender Publisher on March 29.
Frank Angst
BloodHorse
Win: Journalism
Place: Sovereignty
Show: Grande (SCRATCHED)
Comment: Journalism is undefeated in two-turn races and has improved in each of his career efforts. In winning the Grade 1 Santa Anita Derby last out, he overcame some trouble in the backstretch. That toughness should come in handy in the Kentucky Derby. His breeding, Curlin—Mopotism, by Uncle Mo, suggests 1 ¼ miles will be in his wheelhouse, and I look for him to take another step forward Saturday.
Rick Bozich
WDRB
Win: Sovereignty
Place: Burnham Square
Show: Sandman
Comment: There is a reason Bill Mott has been in a fantastic mood. He’s got a thunderous colt.
Steve Byk
At the Races
Win: Journalism
Place: Burnham Square
Show: Baeza
Comment: Journalism arrives for Derby as the most imposing favorite in several years, possessing a heady combination of speed and power with a style that fits the anticipated race flow. Barring unforeseen trouble, he’ll win handily.
John Cherwa
Los Angeles Times
Win: Journalism
Place: Rodriguez (SCRATCHED)
Show: Sandman
Comment: Journalism proves he’s the real deal by biding his time to the quarter pole, where Umberto Rispoli starts to take aim at the front-running Rodriguez. He gets him a few strides from the wire to win and start the Triple Crown talk.
Ed DeRosa
Horse Racing Nation
Win: Journalism
Place: Chunk of Gold
Show: Baeza
Comment: There are two kinds of favorites in the Kentucky Derby: Default favorites, in that someone has to be favored, and deserving favorites, in that this horse has demonstrated a legit claim to the best of his generation. Journalism is in the latter camp, which is why I’m so bullish on his chances on Saturday at Churchill Downs. His San Felipe Stakes victory was the best prep performance of the year, and he overcame trouble to win the Santa Anita Derby. Because I’m so heavy on the favorite here, I’m using long shot Chunk of Gold liberally in my trifecta wagers.
Joe Drape
New York Times
Win: Journalism
Place: Sovereignty
Show: Luxor Cafe
Comment: What a great name?
Bill Finley
National turf writer
Win: Sandman
Place: Burnham Square
Show: Journalism
Comment: He took a step backward in the Rebel but rebounded with an impressive score in the Arkansas Derby. Has the right running style to win.
Jason Frakes
Courier Journal
Win: Journalism
Place: Rodriguez (SCRATCHED)
Show: Baeza
Comment: I hate picking the favorite, but it’s hard to go against Journalism when you’ve worked in the newspaper business for 30 years.
Kaitlin Free
Churchill Downs
Win: Journalism
Place: Luxor Cafe
Show: Sovereignty
Comment: Seems peerless in this race, standing alone numbers and figures wise. Ability to stop and start will be key.
Neil Greenberg
Washington Post
Win: Rodriguez (SCRATCHED)
Place: Luxor Cafe
Show: Tiztastic
Comment: Rodriguez’s early speed and pedigree, which includes Kentucky Derby winner Authentic and versatile sire Into Mischief, gives him the rare blend of speed, stamina and toughness needed to prevail in the Run for the Roses.
David Grening
Daily Racing Form
Win: Journalism
Place: Sovereignty
Show: Burnham Square
Comment: Despite racing in short fields, Journalism can be placed where he needs to be and showed in the Santa Anita Derby he is athletic enough to get out of trouble. Has looked sensational in the mornings at Churchill.
Steve Haskin
National turf writer
Win: Sovereignty
Place: Journalism
Show: Grande (SCRATCHED)
Comment: I can’t separate the top two so going for the bigger price, but watch out for Grande — my price horse. Luxor Cafe, Chunk of Gold, Final Gambit, and American Promise the bombs.
Brooks Holton
Courier Journal
Win: Journalism
Place: Sandman
Show: Rodriguez (SCRATCHED)
Comment: Bob Baffert is back, and my gut tells me he’ll at least get on the board. Rodriguez sets the pace, then Journalism and Sandman duel down the stretch.
Byron King
BloodHorse
Win: Sovereignty
Place: Journalism
Show: Luxor Cafe
Comment: Sovereignty is a powerful late finisher who should relish the mile and a quarter distance of the Kentucky Derby.
Tim Layden
NBC Sports
Win: Journalism
Place: Sandman
Show: Sovereignty
Comment: Journalism is proven and professional, and should like both his post position and the pace up front. Also: You gotta love the name.
Tom Leach
Keeneland
Win: Journalism
Place: Citizen Bull
Show: Burnham Square
Comment: I was all set to pick against Journalism until he worked his way out of a traffic jam on the final turn of the Santa Anita Derby and ran down a very good horse who was loose on an easy lead. I love horses who have Derby winner-caliber talent but also show the ability to handle adversity.
Ray Paulick
The Paulick Report
Win: Publisher
Place: Journalism
Show: Sovereignty
Comment: The last time a maiden (a horse that has never won a race) won the Kentucky Derby was Brokers Tip in 1933, but Arkansas Derby runner-up Publisher has improved with every start and is sitting on a big effort to give Steve Asmussen his first victory in the Run for the Roses.
Mike Penna
Horse Racing Radio Network
Win: Journalism
Place: Sovereignty
Show: Burnham Square
Comment: Journalism has proven himself to be the best of his crop. A clean trip and he is probably the winner, but late-running Sovereignty and Burnham Square could make things interesting in the late stages.
Jennie Rees
Kentucky HBPA
Win: Journalism
Place: Sovereignty
Show: Tiztastic
Comment: This is not a hunch bet; I’m just tired of unsuccessfully trying to beat California horses that are favored. Journalism is the fastest horse, has a good post and running style to stay out of trouble and is bred to go long. Comparative long shot (besides Tiztastic at 20-1) would be Burnham Square (12-1) getting another rail-skimming ride from Brian Hernandez Jr.
Kenny Rice
NBC Sports
Win: Journalism
Place: Sandman
Show: Tiztastic
Comment: Trainer Michael McCarthy shines in his biggest moment.
Nicole Russo
Daily Racing Form
Win: Burnham Square
Place: Journalism
Show: Sandman
Comment: Blue Grass winner Burnham Square appears to be absolutely thriving in his training and peaking at the right time, a key part of the Kentucky Derby alchemy.
Tim Wilkin
National turf writer
Win: Sovereignty
Place: Journalism
Show: Rodriguez (SCRATCHED)
Comment: Expect to see Sovereignty’s long stride to eat up ground quickly in the Churchill Downs stretch and overtake Journalism, who had taken the lead after disposing of pace survivor Rodriguez. Should be another nail biter in America’s most famous horse race.
This story was originally published April 30, 2025 at 1:30 PM.
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