Which horse should you bet on at the Kentucky Derby? We asked AI
The Kentucky Derby is nearly 24 hours away, and it’s time to lay down your bets.
Kentucky.com has a bevy of resources to get you ready for the 151st Run for the Roses — you can get a breakdown of every horse in the race, live updated odds, myriad behind-the-scenes stories about contenders and jockeys, and, of course, expert picks.
But you can never have too much information before placing bets. So we asked Perplexity, an AI bot, to share its prediction for the Derby using stories and videos from 13 other outlets. Sources included ESPN, CBS Sports, The Athletic and various Kentucky Derby experts.
Here is what Perplexity had to say:
The rest of this story was compiled by AI and edited by Herald-Leader journalists.
Most likely winner of the 2025 Kentucky Derby
Journalism is the consensus favorite and most likely winner of the 2025 Kentucky Derby based on expert analysis, betting odds, and recent performance. Key reasons for the prediction are:
Strongest favorite in betting markets: Journalism is the clear betting favorite across major outlets, with odds ranging from +225 to +250 (approximately 3-1). This indicates significant confidence from both bookmakers and bettors.
Impressive recent form: Journalism enters the Derby on a four-race winning streak, including a victory in the Santa Anita Derby, and remains undefeated (4-0). Experts note he is “the best horse in the field” and “bred for this distance,” according to ESPN.
Ideal post position: Journalism drew the No. 8 post, which has produced nine winners since 1930, a historically favorable slot that gives him tactical options in a large field.
Expert endorsements: Multiple analysts and handicappers highlight Journalism as the top pick. ESPN’s betting preview calls him the best in the field, as do Sports Betting Dime and CBS Sports, pointing to his winning streak and pedigree.
Other Contenders
While Journalism is the top choice, a few other horses are drawing attention:
Sovereignty: Second favorite in most books (odds around 4.5-1 to 5-1), winner of the Fountain of Youth Stakes.
Sandman: Arkansas Derby winner, third favorite at 5-1 to 6-1, but some experts are fading him due to concerns about his form against this field.
Burnham Square: Mentioned as a value play or horse to include in exotic bets, especially considering Burnham Square is peaking at the right time.
Long shots
Several experts and analysts have identified key long shot contenders for the 2025 Kentucky Derby. Here are the most widely cited long shots, their odds, and the reasons they are considered live outsiders:
- Burnham Square (12-1): Proven closer with wins in the Fountain of Youth Stakes and Blue Grass Stakes. Ridden by Brian Hernandez Jr., who piloted last year’s long shot winner Mystik Dan. Has strong connections and is bred for the Derby distance.
- Luxor Cafe (15-1): Son of American Pharoah, with four wins in six starts, including a major prep race in Japan. Experts praise his stamina and tactical speed, noting his ability to adapt and finish strongly. Japanese horses have been increasingly competitive in recent Derbies.
- Tiztastic (20-1): Winner of the Louisiana Derby, demonstrating the ability to handle longer distances. His running style positions him just behind the early speed, giving him a chance to capitalize if the favorites falter. AI and human analysts both highlight his value at current odds.
- Chunk of Gold (31-1): Showed versatility by adjusting running style in the Louisiana Derby and finishing strongly. Experts believe his adaptability could be an asset in a crowded Derby field.
- Citizen Bull (16-1 to 17-1): Trained by Bob Baffert, making a return after a suspension. Though not a top favorite, his connections and recent performances suggest he could surprise at a price.
Other honorable mentions include Final Gambit (30-1) and Flying Mohawk (35-1), but the five above are most consistently highlighted by experts and analysts as the best long shot bets for the 2025 Kentucky Derby.
Key factors
There are several factors to consider when making Derby predictions. Perplexity’s top factors are:
- Speed: The Kentucky Derby is a race, and raw speed is essential. Horses with consistently high speed figures and the ability to accelerate at key moments are strong contenders.
- Stamina: The Derby distance of 1¼ miles is longer than most horses have ever raced. Horses that have demonstrated stamina in prep races or have pedigrees suggesting endurance are favored.
- Winning prep races: Success in major prep races is a strong indicator of Derby readiness. Horses that have won or performed well in these races tend to be better prepared for the Derby’s unique challenges.
- Post position: Where a horse starts can significantly affect its chances, especially in a crowded field. Some post positions have historically been more favorable than others.
- Running style: Adaptable horses — whether they are front-runners, stalkers, or closers — often fare better. The Derby’s pace and large field can disadvantage one-dimensional runners.
- Connections: Experienced jockeys and trainers with a history of Derby success can make a difference, especially in navigating the chaos of a large field.
- Current form and health: Horses in peak physical condition and good recent form are more likely to perform well. Look for those showing improvement and soundness leading up to the race.
- Odds and value: Assess the odds to find value. Favorites win more often, but long shots frequently hit the board in the Derby. Consider mixing favorites and value picks in exotic bets.
- Budget and bet types: Set a budget and choose bet types that fit your risk tolerance. Win, place, and show bets are straightforward, while exacta, trifecta, and superfecta bets offer bigger payouts but are harder to hit.
- Track conditions: Weather and track surface can influence performance. Some horses excel on a wet track, while others may struggle.
Conclusion
Journalism is the most likely winner of the 2025 Kentucky Derby, backed by the strongest odds, undefeated record, favorable draw, and widespread expert support. Sovereignty and Sandman are the main challengers, but Journalism stands out as the consensus pick to claim the Run for the Roses.
This story was originally published May 2, 2025 at 3:42 PM.
