How Kentucky and Mississippi State match up — with a game prediction
How Kentucky (3-0, 1-0) and No. 14 Mississippi State (3-0, 0-0) match up at each position — with a game prediction:
Quarterbacks
Kentucky’s Terry Wilson faces his sternest test yet against a Mississippi State defensive front that is one of the nation’s best. The 6-foot-3, 200-pound Wilson, a redshirt sophomore junior-college transfer, has made dynamic plays with both his legs (223 yards rushing, two TDs) and his arm (69.5 percent completion percentage, 392 yards, two TDs). At 6-5, 230 pounds, Mississippi State’s Nick Fitzgerald is a power-running, dual threat. In his two prior starts vs. UK, the senior from Richmond Hill, Ga., ran for 115 (2017) and 107 (2016) yards and four total TDs. Fitzgerald is not as polished as a passer (52.1 percent completions this season) but threw the ball well (14-of-21 for 243 yards and two TDs) in last week’s 56-10 rout of Louisiana.
Advantage: Mississippi State
Running backs
Kentucky star Benny Snell (375 yards rushing, three TDs, 6 yards per carry) had one of the least productive games of his career (seven carries, 18 yards) last season in UK’s 45-7 loss at MSU. Two years ago, when the Cats beat the Bulldogs 40-38 in Lexington, Snell fared better, running for 128 yards and a touchdown on 19 carries. Mississippi State’s Aeris Williams, a 6-1, 215-pound senior, ran for 1,107 yards last season, but 5-11, 215-pound sophomore Kylin Hill (293 yards, 9.3 yards per carry) has been State’s featured back this season.
Advantage: Kentucky
Wide receivers
Kentucky sophomore slot receiver Lynn Bowden is emerging as UK’s go-to threat. The 6-1, 195-pound Youngstown, Ohio, product caught eight passes last week in the 48-10 win over Murray State and leads the Cats with 17 receptions. UK tried to get Dorian Baker going last week (four catches). The physicality of the 6-3, 205-pound senior should be valuable as a blocker this week. Mississippi State’s Stephen Guidry was a lavishly hyped junior-college recruit. The 6-4, 190-pound junior is tied with Keith Mixon with a team-high six receptions and has 138 receiving yards with a TD.
Advantage: Even
Tight ends
Kentucky senior C.J. Conrad caught three passes for 24 yards vs. Murray State. The 6-5, 252-pound product of LaGrange, Ohio, is UK’s second-leading receiver (eight catches) on the season. Mississippi State senior Justin Johnson has a catch in seven of his last nine games. Junior Farrod Green has 22 career receptions.
Advantage: Kentucky
Offensive line
Kentucky’s inexperienced left tackles, redshirt sophomore E.J. Price and redshirt freshman Naasir Watkins, will face the biggest challenges of their brief UK careers against a formidable MSU defensive line. Center Drake Jackson will also be tested by State’s All-America nose guard candidate Jeffery Simmons. Mississippi State senior center Elgton Jenkins is the reigning SEC Offensive Lineman of the Week after not allowing a single QB hurry last week. Senior right guard Deion Calhoun has made 26 career starts and did not surrender a quarterback sack all last season.
Advantage: Even
Defensive line
Kentucky Coach Mark Stoops said Monday he expected 6-4, 340-pound sophomore nose guard Quinton Bohanna to play this week. The Cordova, Tenn., product missed last week’s game against Murray State and most of UK’s win at Florida because of an ankle injury. The Cats need Bohanna against a powerful MSU rushing attack. In Montez Sweat and Jeffery Simmons, Mississippi State has two of the best defensive linemen in the country. Sweat, a 6-6, 245-pound end, has 12 tackles for loss in his past six games. Simmons, a 6-4, 300-pound junior, had 3.5 TFL in MSU’s season-opening victory over Stephen F. Austin.
Advantage: Mississippi State
Linebackers
UK OLB/rush end Josh Allen (19 tackles, 4.5 TFL, two sacks, one forced fumble, one pass break-up) has played like a first-team All-America candidate. WLB Jordan Jones had only two tackles last week, but broke up four Murray State passes. Mississippi State WLB Leo Lewis has made 28 career starts. MLB Erroll Thompson was a 2017 SEC All-Freshman selection.
Advantage: Kentucky
Defensive backs
Kentucky senior FS Darius West is second on the team in tackles (19) and has the only UK interception by a secondary player. Senior CB Derrick Baity leads Wildcats DBs with two pass break-ups. Mississippi State FS Mark McLaurin has been a problem for UK. Two seasons ago, he returned a fumble 81 yards for a TD vs. the Cats. Last year, he had 11 tackles vs. UK. State Coach Joe Moorhead said Monday that starting CB Jamal Peters will miss the game due to injury. Redshirt freshman Tyler Williams is his listed backup.
Advantage: Even
Special teams
Kentucky senior place-kicker Miles Butler hit on his first two field-goal tries of the year last week, from 38 and 40 yards. Thanks to Australian punter Max Duffy, UK is second in the SEC in net yards punting (42.8 yards a kick). MSU place-kicker Jace Christmann booted 13 of 17 field goals in 2017, but is 1-of-3 with misses on both his kicks from 40 yards or out. Punter Tucker Day has only kicked five times in three games and has a 40 yards average. The Bulldogs’ return game with Keith Mixon (8.6 yards average on eight punt returns) and Brian Cole (28.4 on five kickoff returns) is strong.
Advantage: Mississippi State
Prediction
Kentucky 35, Mississippi State 34
Mark Story: (859) 231-3230; Twitter: @markcstory