How Kentucky and Mississippi State match up — with a game prediction
How Kentucky (0-2 SEC) and Mississippi State (1-1 SEC) match up at each position — with a game prediction:
Quarterbacks
Kentucky senior Terry Wilson played his best all-around game as a Wildcat in last Saturday’s 42-41 overtime loss to Mississippi. The 6-foot-3, 202-pound Oklahoma City product completed 14 of 18 passes (with two clear drops) for 151 yards. On the ground, Wilson ran for 129 yards and three touchdowns. After committing two costly turnovers at Auburn, Wilson played a clean game vs. Ole Miss. In his first game in Mike Leach’s Air Raid offense, K.J. Costello torched LSU for 623 passing yards and five TDs in the Bulldogs’ 44-34 upset. The 6-5, 225-pound graduate transfer from Stanford came back to Earth in last week’s 21-14 upset loss to Arkansas, however, throwing for “only” 323 yards with three interceptions and one touchdown.
Advantage: Mississippi State
Running backs
Kentucky lost sophomore Kavosiey Smoke to a broken rib vs. Ole Miss, but the Cats still had two RBs join Terry Wilson in rushing for over 100 yards. Sophomore power back Christopher Rodriguez rumbled for 133 yards and two TDs. Senior A.J. Rose had 117 yards and a TD. With Smoke out, speedy redshirt freshman Travis Tisdale could get some touches. Mississippi State star Kylin Hill (1,350 rushing yards and 10 TDs last season) is expected to play vs. UK. He missed most of the Arkansas loss after leaving the field groggy after taking a hit early in the game. Against LSU in the opener, the 5-11, 210-pound senior fully embraced the life of an Air Raid RB, catching eight passes for 158 yards and a TD. With Hill out vs. Arkansas, true freshmen Jo’quavious Marks (10 catches, 50 yards) and Dillon Johnson (eight, 35) did not have much success generating yards after catches.
Advantage: Even.
Wide receivers
Kentucky senior Josh Ali is third in the SEC in receptions with 16 for 186 yards. Redshirt sophomore slot Akeem Hayes (four catches, 54 yards, one TD) has shown promise. At 6-5, 210 pounds, Mississippi State senior Osirus Mitchell (team-highs of 12 catches, 244 yards, two TDs) is the type of big receiver that gives UK fits.
Advantage: Mississippi State.
Tight ends
Kentucky got its tight ends somewhat involved in its passing attack vs. Ole Miss, with Justin Rigg catching two passes for 20 yards and Keaton Upshaw one for 5 yards. As an Air Raid offense, Mississippi State uses four wide receivers as its base formation. Of its “H” receivers, 6-5, 240-pound Geor’quarius Spivey is built most like a tight end.
Advantage: Kentucky
Offensive line
Kentucky redshirt sophomore Kenneth Horsey has started the first two games at left guard in place of the graduated Logan Stenberg. The 6-3, 300-pound Sanford, Fla., product helped “The Big Blue Wall” open holes for three 100-yards-plus rushers vs. Ole Miss. Mississippi State’s new coaching staff shuffled the Bulldogs’ offensive line. Starting right tackle in 2019, Greg Eiland, has moved to left guard; last year’s left guard, Dareuan Parker, shifted to right guard. Both tackles, redshirt freshman Charles Cross (left) and sophomore Kwatrivous Johnson (right), are new starters.
Advantage: Kentucky.
Defensive line
Mark Stoops continues to rave about the play of end Josh Paschal. The 6-3, 278-pound redshirt junior has 11 tackles and a team-high two tackles for loss. Mississippi State defensive tackle Marquiss Spencer has been filling his stat line in 2020. The 6-4, 300-pound senior had two QB sacks in the win over LSU and five tackles, a TFL, a QB hurry and a forced fumble vs. Arkansas.
Advantage: Mississippi State.
Linebackers
Kentucky needs more disruption off the edges from SLB Boogie Watson (1.5 TFL, one sack) and OLB/rush end Jordan Wright (one QB hurry). Will promising redshirt freshman J.J. Weaver (1.5 TFL, 0.5 sacks) start to get more snaps at OLB/rush end? Mississippi State MLB Erroll Thompson (team-high 23 tackles) is an All-SEC candidate. WLB Aaron Brule had a sack and fumble recovery vs. Arkansas.
Advantage: Even
Defensive backs
Through two games, the Kentucky secondary has already allowed seven touchdown passes after giving up only nine in 13 games in 2019. On the plus side, nickelback Davonte Robinson — who missed all of last season due to a quadriceps injury — looked like his old self (five tackles) vs. Ole Miss. Mississippi State strong safety/nickelback Shawn Preston is second on the team with 16 tackles. CB Esaias Furdge and his backup Emmanuel Forbes (one each) have MSU’s only interceptions of 2020.
Advantage: Mississippi State.
Special teams
Kentucky place-kicker Matt Ruffolo — who kicked well at the end of 2019 — had a rough go vs. Ole Miss. The senior misfired on a 49-yard field goal that would have given UK a 10-point lead and missed an overtime extra point that opened the door for Mississippi to win the game. Punter Max Duffy, the 2019 Ray Guy Award winner, continues to excel (51.7 yards a punt average). Mississippi State returned veteran place-kicker Jace Christmann (32-of-40 career field goals) but he has been beaten out by Brandon Ruiz. A transfer from Arizona State, Ruiz is 3-of-3 on field goals this season (long of 43) and 40-of-52 for his career. MSU has punted eight times, evenly divided between two punters: Texas Tech transfer Reed Bowman is averaging 44.2 yards a punt, returnee Tucker Day 42.5.
Advantage: Even.
Prediction
Mississippi State 31, Kentucky 30.
