How Kentucky men’s basketball matches up against Louisville — with a game prediction

How the No. 5 Kentucky Wildcats (9-1) and the Louisville Cardinals (6-4) match up at each position for Saturday’s men’s college basketball rivalry contest — with a game prediction:

Small forward

▪ Due to injuries, Kentucky’s Jaxson Robinson (12.5 ppg, 3.8 rpg, 19 assists, eight turnovers; 42% FGs, 29.4% treys) had to assume the point guard duties down the stretch of UK’s stirring 90-89 overtime win over Gonzaga in Seattle last Saturday and then again for most of the game during Wednesday’s lackluster 78-67 win over 2-9 Colgate. The 6-foot-6, 192-pound super-senior from Ada, Oklahoma, has eight assists vs. only two turnovers in the past two games, but has made only 11 of 29 shots.

▪ Louisville’s J’Vonne Hadley (9.8 ppg, 8 rpg, 18 assists vs. 21 turnovers; 50% FGs, 25% treys) had a double-double, 13 points and 12 rebounds, as U of L snapped a three-game losing skid with a 77-74 home win over UTEP on Wednesday night. A 6-6, 215-pound super-senior who transferred to The Ville from Colorado, Hadley now has three points-rebounds double-doubles on the season.

Advantage: Kentucky.

Power forward

▪ Kentucky super-senior Andrew Carr (11 ppg, 6.2 rpg, 26 assists vs. 9 turnovers; 57.1% FGs, 35.7% treys) had 11 points and a team-high 10 rebounds in the win over Colgate. A transfer from Wake Forest, the 6-11, 235-pound Carr has played big for UK in its most consequential games. Carr had 17 points and six boards in UK’s 77-72 win over Duke in the Champions Classic and had 19 points, seven rebounds and three assists in the “Battle in Seattle” win over Gonzaga. In two wins over U of L while at Wake Forest, Carr averaged 11.5 points and 2.5 rebounds and made 8 of 19 shots and 4 of 13 3-pointers.

▪ Louisville’s James Scott (7 ppg, 5.8 rpg, 11 assists vs. eight turnovers, team-high 10 blocked shots) has made 29 of 34 field goal attempts this season, a robust 85.3 percent. A transfer who came with Pat Kelsey from the College of Charleston, the 6-11, 220-pound Scott has not fared especially well against power conference competition. In U of L’s five such games to date, Scott, a Fayetteville, North Carolina, product, is averaging 3.8 points and 3.8 rebounds.

Advantage: Kentucky.

Center

▪ Kentucky super-senior Amari Williams (10.6 ppg, 9.2 rpg, 22 assists vs. 24 turnovers, team-high 18 blocked shots) has scored in double figures in six of UK’s 10 games. The transfer from Drexel has been in twin digits in rebounds five times. A 7-foot, 265-pound super-senior from Nottingham, England, Williams had 15 points, eight rebounds, two assists and a blocked shot in the win over Colgate.

▪ Louisville center Noah Waterman (6.2 ppg, 4.1 rpg, 32.9% FGs, 22% treys, 31.3% FTs) will be familiar to Kentucky coach Mark Pope. Waterman, a 6-11, 230-pound super-senior from Savannah, New York, played for Pope at BYU in the two seasons prior to this. Last year, Waterman averaged 9.5 points and 5.4 rebounds for BYU; in 2022-23, he contributed 4.6 ppg and 2.8 rpg for Pope’s Cougars.

Advantage: Kentucky.

Shooting guard

▪ A transfer from Oklahoma, Kentucky junior Otega Oweh (team-high 15.6 ppg, 4.3 rpg, 17 assists vs. eight turnovers; team-high 13 steals) has been UK’s “Mr. Dependable.” Oweh has scored in double figures in all 10 Kentucky games to date. A 6-4, 215-pound junior from Newark, New Jersey, Oweh has played big in the big games. The transfer from Oklahoma had 15 points, six rebounds and three assists in the win over Duke. Oweh had 17 points and seven boards in the Wildcats’ 70-66 loss at Clemson in the SEC/ACC Challenge. He went for 13 points, six rebounds and three assists in the victory against Gonzaga.

▪ Louisville’s Reyne Smith (12.1 ppg, 3.1 rpg, 37.1% treys) is another player who came to U of L with Pat Kelsey from the College of Charleston. A 6-2, 190-pound senior from Ulverstone, Australia, Smith is a career 37.1 percent 3-point shooter and has averaged in double figures in scoring in all four of his college seasons. This season, Smith has played well against power conference foes, averaging 12.8 points, 3.2 rebounds and making 36.1 percent of his 3-point tries.

Advantage: Kentucky.

Point guard

▪ Kentucky super-senior Lamont Butler (12.9 ppg, 3.1 rpg, 31 assists vs. 10 turnovers, 12 steals) has missed UK’s past two games after suffering an ankle injury in the loss at Clemson. In the five most recent games in which Butler has played, he has averaged 14.8 points and has 21 assists vs. only five turnovers. A 6-2, 208-pound transfer from San Diego State, Butler’s value to UK has been heightened by the foot injury suffered in the Gonzaga win that has sidelined backup point guard Kerr Kriisa indefinitely. Mark Pope said Wednesday night that Butler is slowly ramping up his practice participation. “It’s kind of a throw it out there today and see what we end up with when he wakes up,” the UK coach said of Butler’s injury recovery.

▪ Louisville’s Chucky Hepburn (14.3 ppg, 3.3 rpg, 48 assists vs. 30 turnovers, 32 steals) has been the Cardinals’ best player in 2024-25. A 6-2, 190-pound senior who transferred from Wisconsin, Hepburn exploded for 32 points in U of L’s 79-70 overtime win over West Virginia in the semifinals of the Battle 4 Atlantis. Hepburn’s ball-hawking — he entered play Wednesday night fifth in the nation in steals — figures to be a major challenge for UK if the Cats again have to play without a natural point guard.

Advantage: Louisville.

Bench

▪ Kentucky’s substantial depth has been thinned by the injuries to Lamont Butler and Kerr Kriisa (4.4 ppg, team-high 34 assists vs. nine turnovers). ... Super-senior wing Koby Brea (12.4 ppg, 4.1 rpg, 56.1% treys) got the start vs. Colgate. The 6-7, 215-pound transfer from Dayton had been in a 7-of-22 slump from behind the arc over UK’s prior four games. However, he snapped out of it by making 5 of 8 3-pointers vs. Colgate. ... Sophomore center Brandon Garrison (6 ppg, 5.2 rpg, 21 assists vs. 10 turnovers) is another who has shown a penchant for coming through against the brand-name teams. The 6-10, 250-pound Oklahoma State transfer had eight points and four rebounds in the win over Duke and contributed 10 points and nine boards in the victory against Gonzaga. ... Senior forward Ansley Almonor (6 ppg, 1.8 rpg, 37% treys) is in a mini-shooting slump. The 6-7, 244-pound senior transfer from Fairleigh Dickinson has made only 1 of 6 3-point shots in UK’s past three games.

▪ Louisville’s depth has also been depleted due to injuries. The Cardinals are without starting forwards Aboubacar Traore (broken left arm) and Kasean Pryor (torn left ACL) and backup point guard Koren Johnson (shoulder surgery). With two other players sitting out this season on medical redshirts, U of L has only eight available scholarship players. ... Formerly a star at James Madison, Terrence Edwards Jr. (12.9 ppg, 3.2 rpg, 42.1% FGs, 26.1% treys) seems to be finding his footing at Louisville. The 6-6, 205-pound super-senior has gone over 20 points (21 vs. Duke, 22 against UTEP) in U of L’s past two games. ... A 6-8, 205-pound freshman Khani Rooths (4.1 ppg, 3.3 rpg, 36.8% FGs) has promise. The Washington, D.C., product showed that with 10 points and six rebounds vs. Duke. ... A transfer from Georgia, 6-10, 220-pound super-senior Frank Anselem-Ibe (0.3 ppg, 1 rpg, 20% FGs) has played against UK three previous times. While Georgia went 1-2 vs. UK in 2022-23 and 2023-24, Anselem-Ibe played a combined 33 minutes vs. the Cats in those three games and scored one point and grabbed six rebounds.

Advantage: Kentucky.

Trends and history

▪ Kentucky leads the all-time series with Louisville 39-17.

▪ UK leads the modern series (since 1982-83) with U of L 30-14.

▪ The Wildcats have won 16 of the past 21 men’s basketball meetings with the Cardinals.

▪ Starting with the 1983 NCAA Tournament “Dream Game” between the Cats and the Cards (won 80-68 in overtime by Louisville), Kentucky head coaches are 2-4 in their first games vs. U of L.

▪ In the same time frame, Louisville head coaches are 1-4 in their first games vs. UK.

Advantage: Kentucky.

Prediction

Kentucky 83, Louisville 74.

This story was originally published December 12, 2024 at 11:32 AM.

Mark Story

Lexington Herald-Leader

859-444-4731

Mark Story has worked in the Lexington Herald-Leader sports department since Aug. 27, 1990, and has been a Herald-Leader sports columnist since 2001. I have covered every Kentucky-Louisville football game since 1994, every UK-U of L basketball game but three since 1996-97 and every Kentucky Derby since 1994. Support my work with a digital subscription