Three things I’ll be watching for when Kentucky football plays Mississippi State
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Preview: No 22 Kentucky vs. No. 16 Mississippi State
Click below to read more of the Herald-Leader’s and Kentucky.com’s preview coverage ahead of Saturday’s Kentucky-Mississippi State football game scheduled for 7:30 p.m. at Kroger Field in Lexington.
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Three things I’ll be watching for when No. 22 Kentucky welcomes Mike Leach and his No. 16 Mississippi State Bulldogs to Kroger Field on Saturday night.
1. Can Kentucky get off to a fast start?
Mississippi State comes out swinging. The Bulldogs have been bullish on the first quarter, pounding flat-footed opponents by a 66-7 count over the first 15 minutes. Leach’s club ambushed Arkansas 14-0 the first 10 minutes of the first quarter. It led Texas A&M 14-0 at the half. It was up 17-0 on Bowling Green after one quarter; 31-7 at intermission.
The Cats have been slow-starters. At least over the last two games. Kentucky spotted Ole Miss a quick 14-0 lead. In Oxford. Then last week brought that infamous first offensive snap against South Carolina. An attempted reverse on UK’s first play with a first-time starter at quarterback turned into a recovered Gamecocks’ fumble at the home team’s 2-yard line. Four seconds and one snap later, the visitors owned a 7-0 lead and by night’s end Shane Beamer was wearing sunglasses while dancing in the South Carolina locker room.
Another stat: Mississippi State is 12-3 under Leach when it scores first.
2. How will Kentucky defend Leach’s new Air Raid?
Two years ago, Leach suffered a horrendous homecoming. Back for the first time to the site where he served as Hal Mumme’s assistant, Leach’s Bulldogs lost 24-2. Mainly rushing three and dropping eight players into coverage, Kentucky intercepted six MSU passes. It’s the only time in Leach’s head coaching career his team did not score an offensive point.
Last year in Starkville, a similar UK defensive strategy failed miserably. Mississippi State quarterback Will Rogers completed 36 of 39 passes. That’s ridiculous. State possessed the football for 41 minutes and 10 seconds of the 60-minute game. That’s even more ridiculous. With the cowbells clanging, Mississippi State rolled 31-17.
Last week, Arkansas defensive coordinator Barry Odom tried the rush-three/drop-eight approach. It didn’t work. State won 40-17. It did so zigging where Leach normally zags. The Bulldogs rushed for 173 yards, their highest total under their pass-happy coach. In fact, State is averaging 106.7 rushing yards per game, the most by a Leach team since his 2016 Washington State edition averaged 120.0.
No matter what defensive scheme UK deploys Saturday, it must tackle. Defensive coordinator Brad White was displeased with the number of missed tackles. This week, “We can’t let a 2-yard pass become a 7-yard gain,” said linebacker DeAndre Square.
3. Can Kentucky avoid mistakes that mushroom?
Mississippi State is tied for the SEC lead in forced turnovers with 12. Defensive coordinator Zach Arnett’s aggressive style has produced eight interceptions and four fumble recoveries. In the 2020 matchup, UK won the turnover battle 6-1. Last year, State won the turnover battle 4-0. Kentucky triumphed in 2020. Mississippi State triumphed in 2021.
Aside from turning the ball over, the Cats must avoid the unforced errors they’ve committed the last two weeks. There was the missed field goal and missed/botched extra points at Ole Miss. There was the missed field goal, blocked punt and five false start penalties last week against South Carolina.
A fumbled punt figured prominently in Mississippi State’s only loss this season. The Bulldogs led LSU 16-10 in Baton Rouge when the normally reliable Austin Williams muffed a punt at his own 9-yard line. LSU recovered and scored three plays later for a 17-16 lead. The Tigers went on to a 31-16 victory.
The team that avoids those kinds of mistakes Saturday will exit smiling.
This story was originally published October 15, 2022 at 6:00 AM.
