Halfway through 2022 season, Kentucky football’s bowl projections are growing more cloudy
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Preview: No 22 Kentucky vs. No. 16 Mississippi State
Click below to read more of the Herald-Leader’s and Kentucky.com’s preview coverage ahead of Saturday’s Kentucky-Mississippi State football game scheduled for 7:30 p.m. at Kroger Field in Lexington.
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What a difference two weeks have made for Kentucky football’s postseason outlook.
After a 4-0 start to the 2022 season, the Wildcats had reached their high-water mark in the Associated Press Top 25 since the end of the 1977 season. Dreams of the College Football Playoff were still on the table. A New Year’s Six bowl berth looked realistic.
Now, after back-to-back losses to Ole Miss and South Carolina and a foot injury to star quarterback Will Levis, even reaching six wins and bowl eligibility cannot be considered a foregone conclusion.
Kentucky is a 7-point underdog against No. 16 Mississippi State at home this week. An off week follows before a trip to No. 6 Tennessee. Kentucky still has to host No. 1 Georgia in November.
If Levis is back and healthy, the Wildcats should still be favored in games against Missouri, Vanderbilt and Louisville, but Mark Stoops classified Levis as day to day even after he participated in at least part of practice Monday. Given Kentucky’s failures in protecting the quarterback this season, there is also reason to worry about future injuries to Levis when he does return.
If Levis is back in time for Mississippi State, there is still a path to a high-profile bowl game. If Levis misses any significant portion of the second half of the season, though, it is difficult to imagine the offense on display versus South Carolina scoring enough points to keep Kentucky in contention for anything but a bottom-tier bowl.
At the halfway point of the 2022 season, it’s time to look at Kentucky’s postseason possibilities again.
COLLEGE FOOTBALL PLAYOFF
The top four teams in the final College Football Playoff Committee rankings will play in the Fiesta Bowl and Peach Bowl as semifinals to the national championship this year. Given Kentucky’s current form, there is little reason to think of the Wildcats as a playoff contender, but technically they could still win out and reach the SEC championship game if the winner of Tennessee-Georgia drops another game along the way. The winner of the SEC championship game is by definition a playoff contender.
SUGAR BOWL
Dec. 31 in New Orleans: The top-ranked SEC team outside the playoff in the final CFP committee ranking goes to the Sugar Bowl to face a team from the Big 12. If two SEC teams are in the playoff (likely Georgia and Alabama), the chances of the SEC’s spot in the Sugar Bowl going to a two or three-loss team increase. The SEC is guaranteed a spot in the Sugar Bowl, so a team outside the top 12 could still claim this bid if there are two SEC teams in the playoff. For now, Tennessee, Ole Miss and Mississippi State all stand between UK and a Sugar Bowl bid.
ORANGE BOWL
Dec. 30 in Miami: After the playoff semifinals, the Sugar Bowl and Rose Bowl, are filled, the highest-ranked remaining team from the SEC, Big Ten and Notre Dame goes to the Orange Bowl opposite the ACC’s representative. Kentucky would almost certainly need to be in the top 10 to have a shot at the Orange Bowl.
COTTON BOWL
Jan. 2 in Arlington, Texas: The final New Year’s Six bowl berth goes to an at-large team in the Cotton Bowl. The highest-ranked Group of Five conference team will be the opponent here. The at-large slot in the Cotton Bowl goes to the highest-ranked team remaining after the other New Year’s Six bowls are filled. At worst, that team would be ranked 12th in the final CFP committee poll.
CITRUS BOWL
Jan. 2 in Orlando: The Citrus Bowl has first pick of the remaining SEC teams after the playoff committee fills the New Year’s Six games. The Citrus Bowl’s primary goal is to pick the best available teams for its matchup of the SEC and Big Ten, but the fact that Kentucky played in this game last year and in 2018 could factor in the decision. Even if UK is the highest-ranked SEC team available, if there are other SEC teams near the Wildcats in the rankings, it is likely the Citrus Bowl would pass on Kentucky to avoid a repeat trip. The Citrus Bowl has only picked the same SEC team in back-to-back years once since 1997.
RELIAQUEST BOWL
Jan. 2 in Tampa: After the Citrus Bowl makes its selection, the SEC works with schools and bowls to assign teams to its “Pool of Six” bowl games. While those six games (ReliaQuest, Gator, Music City, Texas, Liberty and Las Vegas) have the same weight in the SEC’s bowl selection process, the ReliaQuest Bowl, formerly known as the Outback Bowl, has the highest profile of the group as a Florida bowl historically played on New Year’s Day. (Typical New Year’s Day bowl games will be played on Dec. 30, 31 or Jan. 2 this year to avoid conflict with the Sunday NFL schedule.)
Kentucky last played in the Tampa-based bowl in the 1998 season. UK would almost certainly have the ReliaQuest Bowl first on its list of preferences if it falls to the “Pool of Six,” but other teams will share that preference. To feel safe about its chances of going to Tampa, Kentucky will need to have the best ranking of the available SEC teams.
GATOR BOWL
Dec. 30 in Jacksonville: The other Florida-based bowl game in the Pool of Six last hosted Kentucky at the end of the 2020 season, making the Wildcats an unlikely pick for this game. The league makes an effort to avoid recent matchups and trips when assigning teams to the “Pool of Six” games.
MUSIC CITY BOWL
Dec. 31 in Nashville: Kentucky will always be a popular pick among bowl projections for the Music City Bowl due to its close proximity to Nashville, but there are factors working against a match this year. While UK has not played in this game since 2017, the fact that the game kicks off at the same time as the Kentucky-Louisville basketball rivalry game makes it likely both UK and the Music City Bowl would prefer a different SEC school to be placed here.
LAS VEGAS BOWL
Dec. 17 in Las Vegas: A new bowl to the SEC, the Las Vegas Bowl represents a chance for a new trip for whichever SEC team is assigned to it. The guess here is Kentucky would prefer a trip to Las Vegas to face a Pac-12 team over playing in either of the Tennessee bowl games in the Pool of Six. The biggest negative to the game is it is played first among the SEC’s bowl games, making for a hectic December for whichever coaching staff has to juggle preparing for this game with the December signing period.
TEXAS BOWL
Dec. 28 in Houston: Since becoming affiliated with the SEC in 2014, the Texas Bowl has featured a team from the West division in six of eight years. The exceptions were Missouri in 2017 and Vanderbilt in 2018. Kentucky has never played in this game, so a trip to Houston cannot be ruled out, but there are likely to be West teams available that have not played in the game recently.
LIBERTY BOWL
Dec. 28 in Memphis: Since Kentucky has not played in the Liberty Bowl since the 2008 season, a trip to Memphis might be in store if the Wildcats stumble down the stretch to a 6-6 or 7-5 record. The Liberty Bowl has not received an SEC team in three of the last five years when there were not enough bowl-eligible teams from the league to fill all its “Pool of Six” games.
BIRMINGHAM BOWL
Dec. 27 in Birmingham: If the SEC still has bowl-eligible teams available after the “Pool of Six” games are filled, the Birmingham Bowl has next pick. That game, which features an opponent from the American Athletic Conference, has included an SEC team just once since 2016, last year when Auburn lost to Houston. UK last played here in the 2010 season.
GASPARILLA BOWL
Dec. 23 in Tampa: If there is still a bowl-eligible SEC team after the Birmingham Bowl makes its selection, the Gasparilla Bowl has next pick. This game has only selected an SEC team twice in its history, and one of those times was canceled due to COVID-19 issues in 2020.
KENTUCKY FOOTBALL BOWL PROJECTIONS
247Sports (Brad Crawford): ReliaQuest Bowl vs. Wake Forest.
ActionNetwork.com (Brett McMurphy): ReliaQuest Bowl vs. Illinois.
Athlon (Steve Lassan): Music City Bowl vs. Illinois.
CBSSports.com (Jerry Palm): ReliaQuest Bowl vs. Wake Forest.
ESPN (Mark Schlabach): Las Vegas Bowl vs. Washington State.
ESPN (Kyle Bonaguara): Gator Bowl vs. N.C. State.
The Sporting News (Bill Bender): Gator Bowl vs. North Carolina.
Next game
No. 16 Mississippi State at No. 22 Kentucky
When: 7:30 p.m. Saturday
TV: SEC Network
Records: Mississippi State 5-1 (2-1 SEC), UK 4-2 (1-2)
This story was originally published October 11, 2022 at 7:00 AM.
