Kentucky vs. Mississippi State predictions: Can Wildcats slow Mike Leach’s Air Raid?
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Preview: No 22 Kentucky vs. No. 16 Mississippi State
Click below to read more of the Herald-Leader’s and Kentucky.com’s preview coverage ahead of Saturday’s Kentucky-Mississippi State football game scheduled for 7:30 p.m. at Kroger Field in Lexington.
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It’s almost football time in the Bluegrass! Here are some final thoughts and predictions about how No. 22 Kentucky’s game against No. 16 Mississippi State might play out on Saturday evening.
A CHALLENGE FOR THE DEFENSE
It would be difficult to find two more disparate performances than the way the Kentucky defense played in its last two matchups against Mississippi State.
In 2020, Mike Leach’s first season as Mississippi State’s coach, Kentucky prevented a Leach-led offense from scoring for the first time in his 19 years as a coach. The Wildcats intercepted six passes in the 24-2 victory, holding Mississippi State to 295 yards.
A year later, Leach and quarterback Will Rogers had their way with Kentucky in a 31-17 victory. Rogers completed 36 of 39 passes, breaking an SEC record for completion percentage in a game with at least 30 passing attempts. Mississippi State also rushed 35 times, most in the Leach era to that point.
“If you played well, you try not to get too high because you know it’s another game,” defensive coordinator Brad White said this week when asked about the last two meetings with Mississippi State. “If you didn’t play well, usually you’re just disgusted you have to watch it over and over, but at the same time it can help spur motivation. We’ve got to clean up those things that we didn’t do well. No. 1 thing that we can’t carry over from last week to this week was missed tackles.”
It would be an oversimplification to say the cause of the widely differing performances was only tackling, but open-field tackling was a key contributor to Kentucky’s poor defensive performance a year ago.
Adding worry for the Wildcats this week is that tackling problems popped up again in the second half of last week’s loss to South Carolina.
“I’m the type of person when I mess up I like to look at the bad things,” UK linebacker DeAndre Square said. “I watch the game and say, ah, we could have done this. But the year before we did that already. I just try to take both of them out there in practice and harp on it. Make sure everybody is running to the ball, feet set and making plays on the ball. There are plays to be made. The ball is in the air, go get it.”
Mississippi State appears to be clicking on all cylinders entering the matchup, having combined for 1,041 yards in the last two weeks in wins over Texas A&M and Arkansas. The Bulldogs are also running the ball more than ever for a Leach-coached “Air Raid” team with 37 carries for 173 yards against Arkansas.
KEEP AN EYE ON TURNOVERS
Of course, the other obvious difference between the 2020 and 2021 performances for Kentucky versus Mississippi State was the turnover margin.
In 2020, the Wildcats were plus-5 thanks to the six interceptions and just one turnover of their own. Last year, Kentucky quarterback Will Levis threw three interceptions and running back Chris Rodriguez lost a fumble at the Wildcats’ own 22-yard line.
White pointed to a 14-play, 66-yard drive to open the second half for Mississippi State as an example of the type of mistake Kentucky cannot make again.
“It ended up being a field goal, but there were multiple opportunities in that drive to get off the field,” White said. “… We had a dropped pick, we had opportunities. But when you miss those opportunities, drives extend, you have to do more plays, they continue to gain confidence. It also limits the number of possessions our offense can have the ball. So, those turnovers are a huge piece to get the ball back to our offense.”
Of course, the turnover burden does not fall on the defense alone.
Levis in particular needs to do better in taking care of the ball, assuming he returns from a foot injury. Levis’ last two drives ended in red-zone fumbles at Ole Miss. He has thrown four interceptions.
“They’ve been overwhelming offenses,” offensive coordinator Rich Scangarello said. “If you let them, they can jump on you. You’ve got to match that intensity, you’ve got to be sharp and you’ve got to have a great week of practice to prepare for something like this so you can go out there and play fast and meet them. They are definitely going to bring it. They are one of the best defenses we’ll face for sure this year.”
KENTUCKY FOOTBALL INJURY REPORT
All indications point toward Levis returning from a one-game absence due to a foot injury. With quarterbacks held from contact during practice, there is no way to know how he will respond to his first hit in the game until it happens, though.
Protecting Levis has been a problem all season, but the offensive line could be boosted by the return of right tackle Jeremy Flax, who missed the South Carolina game with a hamstring injury. Levis’ receiving options could be limited after wide receivers Tayvion Robinson and Dane Key picked up injuries in the second half against South Carolina.
There was no update on Robinson’s status this week, and he was not available for interviews Tuesday. Key did talk to reporters but was wearing a hard cast on his left hand after Tuesday’s practice. He told reporters he expected the cast to be removed before the game.
Senior linebacker Jacquez Jones is set to miss his second consecutive game with a foot injury.
FINAL PREDICTIONS
Kentucky 35, Mississippi State 27: There are plenty of reasons to pick against Kentucky this week. How will Levis’ foot hold up to more hits? After back-to-back sloppy performances, can the team actually be expected to show up for a must-win game if UK has any hopes of remaining relevant in the SEC East race? I just think the second game with Levis and Rodriguez playing together will translate to more offensive success. Mississippi State has scored at least 39 points in five of six games, but the Kentucky defense has yet to surrender more than 24 points in a game. The guess here is Mississippi State is ripe for a letdown with a huge game at Alabama next week.
MVP: Barion Brown. Kentucky’s star freshman receiver is coming off the worst performance of his young career against South Carolina, but he remains key to the Wildcats’ offensive success. Levis and Brown were just inches off for a couple of deep completions at Ole Miss. Add one of those to his ability to make plays in space on screens, and it could be a big night for the freshman. Mississippi State has recorded touchbacks on 62% of its kickoffs this year, so there might be a chance for a kickoff return, too. If Robinson can’t play, Brown would be the punt returner.
The spread: Mississippi State opened as a seven-point favorite, but the spread dropped to four points after news broke that Levis was likely to play. Keep in mind that the home team has won every game in this series since 2014.
Will Levis passing yards: 275.
Turnover margin: Kentucky, plus-1.
Will Rogers completions: 30.
Plays for backup QB Kaiya Sheron: 4.
FINAL WORD
“Did I like the way we played (against South Carolina) in the first half? Sure. But then to play a terrible second half leaves no good taste in my mouth. I don’t know. What’s better, to come out slow and play great in the second half or come out fast and play terrible in the second? They’re both bad. What we need is come out fast and then stay strong throughout. That’s what we have to do.”
— Defensive coordinator Brad White on defense’s failure to post a complete-game performance so far.
This story was originally published October 14, 2022 at 7:00 AM.
