How Kentucky and Southern Miss match up — with a game prediction

How Kentucky and Southern Mississippi match up — with a game prediction:

Quarterbacks

After he replaced an injured Drew Barker, Stephen Johnson (54.7 completion percentage, 13 TD passes vs. six interceptions) led Kentucky to wins in seven of the 11 games in 2016 in which he took the preponderance of snaps. In 2017, Johnson will seek to cut back on fumbling (lost three that were returned for TDs last season) and become more accurate throwing short and intermediate passes. Kentucky Coach Mark Stoops says he would like to get Barker, returning after November back surgery, some snaps Saturday, too.

Southern Mississippi Coach Jay Hopson and offensive coordinator Shannon Dawson made a late QB call, choosing sophomore Keon Howard over redshirt junior Kwadra Griggs to start. A 6-1, 205-pound sophomore, Howard started two games last season as a true freshman in place of an injured Nick Mullens. A junior-college transfer who redshirted last year, Griggs has battled a finger injury in preseason camp but has been the more consistent passer when healthy.

Advantage: Kentucky

Running backs

Benny Snell was a freshman sensation for Kentucky in 2016, running for 1,091 yards and 13 TDs in spite of not carrying the ball in the season’s first two games. Little-used junior Sihiem King (208 career rushing yards) enters the season as UK’s No. 2 back. Southern Mississippi star Ito Smith is one of the most versatile backs (1,459 rushing yards; 43 receptions last year) in college football. A 5-9, 195-pound product of Mobile, Ala., Smith gashed UK for 173 yards and a TD last year. The Golden Eagles believe backups Tez Parks and T’Rod Daniels, a speedy junior-college transfer, are both capable.

Advantage: Southern Mississippi

Wide receivers

With the losses of Jeff Badet (transfer) and Dorian Baker (injury), senior Garrett Johnson (39 catches, 585 yards, five TDs) enters 2017 as Kentucky’s sole proven wideout. True freshmen Clevan Thomas, Lynn Bowden, Josh Ali and Isaiah Epps are all on the UK two-deep. A 6-2, 169-pound senior, Southern Mississippi’s Allenzae Staggers (63 catches, 1,165 yards, seven TDs) is one of the most talented WRs Kentucky will face. The Golden Eagles also return Korey Robertson (37 catches, three TDs) and Isaiah Jones (20 catches, two TDs, one of which was a 71-yard TD reception vs. UK).

Advantage: Southern Mississippi

Tight ends

Kentucky quarterback Stephen Johnson worked throughout the summer with veteran tight ends C.J. Conrad (19 catches, four TDs) and Greg Hart (six catches) trying to dial in a connection that was often errant in 2016. Southern Mississippi’s Julian Allen caught 19 passes last year, one of which went for an 18-yard touchdown vs. UK.

Advantage: Kentucky

Offensive line

Expected to be the strength of the UK team, Kentucky’s OL enters 2017 with far more uncertainty than expected. On Kentucky’s week-one depth chart, every position but one — LG Logan Stenberg — has an “OR” indicating the starter is up in the air. Starting LT Cole Mosier is out for the season with a torn ACL. Starting guard Nick Haynes has had substantial weight loss as he manages Type 1 diabetes and may move to center. Southern Mississippi has uncertainty up front, too, with three new starters plus a fourth, Devin Farrior, shifting from right guard to center. Right tackle Ty Pollard, a 6-7, 314-pound redshirt sophomore, was named to the 2016 C-USA All-Freshman Team.

Advantage: Kentucky

Defensive line

The Kentucky interior defensive front struggled on the field in 2016, then came in for harsh criticism over the summer in 2017. In camp, Mark Stoops says he has seen an improved work ethic from the UK DL. Junior tackle Adrian Middleton (35 tackles, 5.5 TFL in 2016) is UK’s most proven commodity. Southern Mississippi, like Kentucky, uses a multiple-front with three down linemen. The return to health of 6-4, 305-pound DT Draper Riley, who battled injuries a season ago, and the addition of 6-3, 308-pound juco transfer NG Delmond Landry is expected to enhance the USM run defense.

Advantage: Southern Mississippi

Linebackers

Kentucky’s linebacking corps should be stout. Junior WLB Jordan Jones had 109 tackles in 2016. Senior MLB Courtney Love, a Nebraska transfer, had 76 tackles and improved as the year progressed. OLBs Denzil Ware (5.5 sacks and 12 tackles for loss) and Josh Allen (team-best seven sacks) will give UK disruptive edge rushing. Southern Miss is less certain about the quality of its linebacking. Senior MLB Sherrod Ruff had 37 tackles in 2016, eight of which were TFL. Redshirt freshman Racheem Boothe has won the SLB position.

Advantage: Kentucky

Defensive backs

Kentucky junior strong safety Mike Edwards (100 tackles; five pass breakups; three interceptions) is one of the best DBs in the SEC. UK might shift him to nickel back to get him closer to the line of scrimmage. Junior cornerbacks Chris Westry (25 career starts) and Derrick Baity (17 career starts) are seasoned vets. Redshirt freshman Davonte Robinson, the former Henry Clay star, is pushing Darius West at free safety. Southern Mississippi’s secondary is also an expected strength. Nickel back Picasso Nelson Jr. (48 tackles, two interceptions) and field corner Cornell Armstrong (47 tackles, eight pass breakups) lead the way.

Advantage: Kentucky

Special teams

Australian Matt Panton, a graduate transfer from Columbia University, appears to have wrested the Kentucky punting job from incumbent Grant McKinniss. Senior place-kicker Austin MacGinnis (16-of-19 field goals in 2016) needs 49 points to become Kentucky’s all-time leading scorer. Southern Mississippi place-kicker Parker Shaunfield had a strong 2016, cashing in 12 of 14 field goals (including three vs. UK) and all 40 of his PATs. The punting job is up in the air between redshirt freshman Zac Everett and true freshman Briggs Bourgeois. Allenzae Staggers had a 75-yard punt-return TD last year vs. Savannah State.

Advantage: Even

Prediction

Kentucky 33, Southern Mississippi 26

This story was originally published September 1, 2017 at 11:22 AM with the headline "How Kentucky and Southern Miss match up — with a game prediction."