How No. 12 Kentucky matches up against Arkansas — with a game prediction

How the No. 12 Kentucky Wildcats (15-5, 4-3 SEC) and the Arkansas Razorbacks (12-8, 1-6 SEC) match up at each position for Saturday’s men’s college basketball game at Rupp Arena — with a game prediction:

Small forward

▪ Due to injuries, Kentucky super-senior Koby Brea (11.2 ppg, 3.1 rpg, 47.8% treys) made his second start of the season Tuesday night at Tennessee. A 6-foot-7, 215-pound product of Washington Heights, New York, Brea played well in UK’s 78-73 upset of the No. 8 Volunteers. Brea scored 18 points on 5-of-5 shooting, 3-of-3 on 3-point attempts, and also chipped in three rebounds, three assists, a block and a steal. Brea’s perfect shooting from behind the arc at UT came after he had gone a combined 7-of-26 on 3-point shots over Kentucky’s five prior games.

▪ Arkansas freshman Karter Knox (6.7 ppg, 3 rpg, 38.7% FGS, 27.9% 3-pointers) has played well since moving into the starting lineup two games ago after the season-ending hand injury suffered by guard Boogie Fland, the ex-UK recruit. A 6-6, 220-pound product of Tampa, Florida, Knox has averaged 10.5 ppg and 5 rpg in those two games. Knox had 13 points— fueled by 11-of-13 foul shooting — and six rebounds In the Razorbacks’ 68-65 win over Georgia on Jan. 22. The younger brother of former Kentucky standout Kevin Knox, Karter Knox was a Wildcats signee when John Calipari was with the Big Blue.

Advantage: Kentucky.

Power forward

▪ Kentucky senior Ansley Almonor (6 ppg, 1.9 rpg, 50% FGs, 43.3% treys) made his second straight start at Tennessee in place of the injured Andrew Carr. For the second straight game, Almonor, a 6-7, 245-pound product of Spring Valley, New York, played well. After hitting 4 of 5 treys and scoring 12 points in UK’s 74-69 loss at Vanderbilt last Saturday, Almonor drilled 4 of 7 3-pointers and again scored 12 points in the win at UT. A transfer from Fairleigh Dickinson, Almonor is 15-of-25 on 3-point shots over Kentucky’s past six games.

▪ A former Kentucky Wildcat, Arkansas junior Adou Thiero (now pronounced “theee-roh” instead of “th-ERR-oh”) has played more games at Rupp Arena (22) than any player who will be in Saturday night’s game. Thiero (16.1 ppg, 6.2 rpg, 57.2% FGs, 27.6% treys) has been the Razorbacks’ breakout player in 2024-25. The 6-8, 220-pound Pittsburgh product has scored in double figures 16 times and has had 20 points or more six times. With Thiero’s combination of strength and athleticism, the ex-Cat will be a tough matchup for the current Wildcats.

Advantage: Arkansas.

Center

▪ On his 23rd birthday, Kentucky super-senior Amari Williams (9.8 ppg, 8.9 rpg, 54 assists vs. 45 turnovers, team-high 30 blocked shots) threw himself quite a party in Knoxville. The 7-foot, 262-pound product of Nottingham, England, had 10 points, a game-high 15 rebounds and four assists and was a major factor in UK’s upset of UT. According to basketball statistics maven Evan Miyakawa’s “on-off splits” — which tell you how much better/worse a team plays when a player is on or off the court — Williams is Kentucky’s most valuable player.

▪ Arkansas senior Jonas Aidoo (5.9 ppg, 4.5 rpg, 55.3% FGs, 58.6% FTs) had a rough go in the Razorbacks’ 65-62 loss to Oklahoma last Saturday. The 6-11, 240-pound product of Durham, North Carolina, failed to score and grabbed only one rebound in nine minutes of action. Afterward, John Calipari said defensive issues were the reason Aidoo played so little. A transfer from Tennessee, Aidoo has played six previous times vs. Kentucky. Last season, as UK and UT split two games, Aidoo averaged 11 points, 9.5 rebounds and four blocked shots vs. the Wildcats.

Advantage: Kentucky.

Shooting guard

▪ Kentucky junior Otega Oweh (15.8 ppg, 4.6 rpg, team-high 33 steals, 50% FGs, 31.9% treys) hit four free throws in the final 25 seconds of the game to seal UK’s five-point win at Tennessee. A 6-4, 215-pound junior from Newark, New Jersey, Oweh finished with 14 points and six rebounds vs. UT. Oweh has now scored in double figures in all 20 Kentucky games to date.

▪ Arkansas super-senior Johnell Davis has been an enigma in 2024-25. A season ago, in his fourth year playing for Dusty May at Florida Atlantic, Davis averaged 18.2 ppg, 6.3 rpg and 2.9 apg. This season, Davis is averaging 8.9 ppg, 3.6 rpg and 1.4 assists. A 6-4, 210-pound product of Gary, Indiana, Davis was a standout on the FAU team that was beaten in the 2023 NCAA Tournament Final Four by San Diego State on a last-second shot by now-Kentucky guard Lamont Butler.

Advantage: Kentucky.

Point guard

▪ Kentucky super-senior Jaxson Robinson (13.1 ppg, 3.7 rpg, 32 assists vs. 19 turnovers, 42.7% FGs, 36% treys) shifted from the wing to lead guard at Tennessee in place of the injured Lamont Butler. A 6-6, 192-pound super-senior from Ada, Oklahoma, Robinson responded by turning the ball over only twice in 34 minutes and scoring 17 points. Since being held to five points in UK’s 82-69 loss at Georgia on Jan. 7, Robinson has averaged 17.6 ppg in the five contests since.

▪ Since Arkansas freshman star Boogie Fland’s season ended on Jan. 15 due to a hand injury, former Kentucky guard D.J. Wagner has assumed the lead guard role for the Razorbacks. In the two games subsequent to the loss of Fland, Wagner, a 6-4, 195-pound native of Camden, New Jersey, has averaged 10.5 ppg, 3.5 rpg and four assists. For the season, Wagner’s numbers are very close to the ones he produced last season as a freshman at UK. This year, Wagner is averaging 10.2 points, 3.2 rebounds and 2.8 assists. Last year, he put up 9.9 ppg, 1.9 rpg and 3.3 assists. Saturday night will be Wagner’s 16th game in Rupp Arena.

Advantage: Kentucky.

Bench

▪ Injuries to Kentucky rotation regulars Andrew Carr (back), Kerr Kriisa (foot) and Lamont Butler (shoulder) have vastly depleted UK’s experienced depth. ... The 6-11, 235-pound Carr (10.4 ppg, 5.3 rpg) tried to go at Tennessee but lasted only two minutes. ... With Carr mostly sidelined the past two games, former Harlan County High School forward Trent Noah is getting his first significant run as a collegian. The 6-5, 220-pound freshman (2.1 ppg, 0.9 rpg, 50% treys) made a contribution to the victory at Tennessee, scoring five second-half points. ... Freshman guard Collin Chandler (1.4 ppg) has not scored in a game since Nov. 29, but provided 15 minutes of hustling, physical defense at Tennessee. ... Freshman guard Travis Perry (1.5 ppg, 31.6% treys) is the only UK scholarship player with a tie to the John Calipari coaching era. The former Lyon County star signed with the Wildcats in the class of 2024 when Calipari was still the UK head man. ... Sophomore center Brandon Garrison (5.7 ppg, 4.5 rpg, 43 assists vs. 24 turnovers) had two points and two rebounds in 16 minutes at Tennessee.

▪ From Dec. 30 through Jan. 14, Arkansas sophomore Zvonimir Ivisic (7.4 ppg, 3.7 rpg, 40.6% treys, team-high 34 blocks) played only 34 combined minutes over five games. In the past three contests, however, the 7-2, 245-pound product of Vodice, Croatia, has seen his role expand dramatically. “Big Z” is averaging 26 minutes, 10.3 points, 6.7 rebounds and two blocks a game in those three games. The former Kentucky center — who did not gain NCAA eligibility last season until Jan. 20 — has played in six games in Rupp Arena. ... Junior forward Trevon Brazile (6.3 ppg, 4.7 rpg) has played against UK twice before, once for Missouri and once for Arkansas. The 6-10, 230-pound Brazile has averaged six points and 3.5 rebounds vs. the Cats. ... Freshman forward Billy Richmond III, a former UK signee, is averaging 4.5 ppg and 2.5 rpg but has not scored more than four points in a game since Dec. 30 (eight vs. Oakland).

Advantage: Arkansas.

Trends and history

▪ Kentucky leads the all-time series with Arkansas 36-14.

▪ Arkansas coach John Calipari is 2-4 in his career vs. UK — 1-4 as Massachusetts head man and 1-0 as Memphis coach.

▪ Kentucky head man Mark Pope has yet to face Arkansas as a head coach.

▪ UK is 11-1 this season in home games; Arkansas is 1-3 in road contests.

▪ Which team better handles the emotions that will surround the first game where John Calipari returns to Lexington to go against the team he coached for the prior 15 seasons could decide the outcome.

Advantage: Kentucky.

Prediction

Kentucky 73, Arkansas 67.

This story was originally published January 30, 2025 at 7:15 AM.

Mark Story

Lexington Herald-Leader

859-444-4731

Mark Story has worked in the Lexington Herald-Leader sports department since Aug. 27, 1990, and has been a Herald-Leader sports columnist since 2001. I have covered every Kentucky-Louisville football game since 1994, every UK-U of L basketball game but three since 1996-97 and every Kentucky Derby since 1994. Support my work with a digital subscription