How far will Kentucky go in the NCAA Tournament? We asked the experts to handicap the Cats
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Men’s NCAA Tournament preview: Kentucky vs. Troy
Click below to read more coverage from the Lexington Herald-Leader and Kentucky.com ahead of Kentucky’s men’s NCAA Tournament opener against Troy University in Milwaukee on Friday night.
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A year after Jack Gohlke shot Oakland past Kentucky in the first round of the NCAA Tournament — stunning the college basketball world and ultimately sending John Calipari packing to Arkansas — the Wildcats finally get their chance to make right on the sport’s biggest stage.
UK plays Troy at 7:10 EDT Friday in Milwaukee, the first game in what the Cats hope will be a winning March that carries them into April with the dream of a national championship still intact.
Calipari is gone, of course, and Mark Pope is the new leader of Kentucky, the program he helped lead to the 1996 national championship as a player. Every scholarship player from last year’s team is also gone. A new bunch of UK basketball newcomers has taken their place, and this group has taken fans on quite a ride over the past few months.
All of it — the record-tying eight victories over AP top 15 teams, the heartbreaking losses, and the ongoing injury struggles that have dominated the narrative in recent weeks — has led the Wildcats to this moment.
How far will they go in the NCAA Tournament? We asked more than a dozen college basketball reporters from outside Kentucky — some national experts, and some who cover teams that played UK in the regular season — for their opinions on the outlook for these Wildcats.
Kentucky vs. Troy, then Illinois?
It starts Friday night against Troy, another game between a 3-seeded Kentucky team and a 14-seeded underdog (the same matchup in which UK lost in the first round last year).
Then, it was Gohlke hitting 10 3-pointers to lift Oakland over the Cats. None of the experts we asked had Kentucky getting upset in this one, though the memory of the Golden Grizzlies’ sharpshooter is still obviously fresh in some minds.
“I don’t expect the Wildcats to have any trouble against the Trojans,” said News & Observer columnist Luke DeCock. “Unless Jack Gohlke transferred there and I wasn’t paying attention.”
Luckily for the Cats, Gohlke is no longer in college basketball.
“I know a lot of people have earmarked Kentucky as a potentially vulnerable 3 seed in the first round, but I just don’t see it,” said ESPN’s Jeff Borzello. “Sure, you can make the argument that Kentucky’s point guard issues don’t bode well, but I don’t think Kentucky’s major weaknesses — primarily defensively — can be consistently taken advantage of by Troy.
“In the second round, it’s a different story — depending on which version of Illinois shows up, of course. It’s going to be a high-scoring affair, and I just think Illinois has more firepower at full-strength. They’re going to get 3-point opportunities against Kentucky, and I have confidence they’ll make their fair share, enough to knock off the Wildcats, at least.”
If UK wins Friday night, its most likely second-round opponent would be six-seeded Illinois, which is 21-12 and 12-8 in the Big Ten. Several others from our panel, including DeCock, have the Illini beating the Wildcats on Sunday.
“I wouldn’t be surprised to see Mark Pope get the Wildcats out of the first weekend for the first time since 2019,” said Rodd Baxley of the Fayetteville (N.C.) Observer. “But with injuries and inconsistent defense, I have Kentucky losing to Illinois and just missing out on a Sweet 16 berth.”
The Cats haven’t advanced past the second round of the tournament since their Elite Eight run in 2019, and they have just one victory in an NCAA Tournament game since then.
“It would absolutely not surprise me if Kentucky made the Sweet 16, especially given Illinois’ volatility, but I find it hard to see the Wildcats going any further in their current state,” said The Athletic’s Brendan Marks. “The truth is, for as impressive and enjoyable as Mark Pope’s first team has been to watch, there’s no understating the loss of Jaxson Robinson and Lamont Butler’s suboptimal shoulder situation.
“Personally, I’ve got the Illini knocking off the Cats in the round of 32, but that would still mean Pope won his first NCAA Tournament game as a head coach — with more surely to come in the years ahead. Probably not what UK fans hoped for this postseason, but the future’s bright in Lexington.”
This was a common sentiment from folks around the country.
Pope, who has never won an NCAA Tournament game in nine previous seasons at Utah Valley and BYU, certainly appears to have Kentucky in a good spot moving forward, but the injuries to his first team — Robinson and Kerr Kriisa are out for the season, Butler will finish out his college career hampered by a shoulder ailment — have had an obvious effect on the court.
“Mark Pope has done a fantastic job at Kentucky, from everything I’ve seen, heard and read, but I’m not quite ready to say the Wildcats are going to make a lengthy run in the Big Dance,” said Jay Drew, who covered Pope for the previous five seasons as a BYU writer for the Deseret News. “After all, Pope has never won an NCAA Tournament game, and last year he didn’t have the BYU Cougars prepared for the kind of physicality they saw in that first-round game, a loss to Duquesne. His 2020-21 BYU team was also upset in the first round, by UCLA.
“I’ve also got some concerns about Kentucky’s depth and injury situation, so I’m predicting the Big Blue train gets derailed in the second round by Illinois.”
Few have seen the Cats play in person as much as the SEC Network’s Tom Hart, and he also praised the job Pope has done in season one with the Wildcats.
He also expects it to end Sunday, noting that Tomislav Ivisic — the brother of ex-Cat Zvonimir Ivisic — could play a role in UK’s ouster.
“Mark Pope has gotten blood out of a turnip this season,” Hart said. “Given the volume and severity of injuries this team had to deal with, I consider year one under Pope a rousing success. That being said, I don’t have them advancing past a star-studded Illinois team. Big Z’s little brother (by four minutes) is the more polished Ivisic. The Illini have already had to deal with injuries and illnesses that robbed them of the chance to build a better résumé, and as such they are more talented than your average 6 seed.
“Restoring the confidence and pride from the fan base was Pope’s biggest win of the year.”
Hart, it should be noted, did predict Illinois would make the Final Four, so he obviously thinks highly of the Illini. Others do, too.
“I have UK going out in the second round to Illinois, but that was more about respect for Illinois than doubts about Kentucky,” said Gentry Estes, columnist for The Tennessean in Nashville. “If the Cats can get past that one, it could open up nicely for them, since they seem to have Tennessee’s number.”
Kentucky-Tennessee, Part 3?
If the Cats can advance out of the first week of the NCAA Tournament for the first time in six years, their most likely opponent in the Sweet 16 would be Tennessee, a team they beat twice in the regular season.
While Alabama blew out a shorthanded Kentucky squad in the SEC Tournament last week — Bama’s third win over the Cats this year — beating a team three times in one season is tough.
NBC Sports’ Nicole Auerbach said she had the Vols eliminating the Cats in Indianapolis next week. USA Today’s Dan Wolken also has UK’s season ending in the Sweet 16. And several others see the same result.
“I have Kentucky losing to Tennessee in the Sweet 16,” said Adam Zagoria of ZagsBlog. “Terrific first year for Mark Pope, and the future is bright in Lexington!”
Jim Meehan — Gonzaga beat writer for the Spokesman-Review and someone who has watched the past three Kentucky teams play in person — played the what-if game with the Cats’ injury situation.
“I’ve got Kentucky going 2-1, falling to Tennessee in the Sweet 16,” he said. “They’d be a really tough out with a healthy roster and Jaxson Robinson in the NCAA Tournament.”
Chris Dortch, the editor and publisher for the Blue Ribbon College Basketball Yearbook, has a UK-Tennessee rematch in his bracket.
“Wouldn’t it be interesting if Kentucky, the one SEC team that really had Tennessee’s number this season, makes its way to a Sweet 16 matchup against the Vols? That’s what I’m calling,” he said. “I like Tennessee in that game, because surely by now the Vols will realize they have to guard Noah and Perry.”
Trent Noah and Travis Perry, the two Kentucky natives on this roster, have hit some big shots against the Vols in previous games this season.
The Kansas City Star’s Blair Kerkhoff also predicts a UK-Tennessee rematch, and he’s leaving the door open for a three-game sweep.
“I see Kentucky picking up a nice second-round victory over Illinois before falling to Tennessee in the Sweet 16, although the Wildcats would have to feel confident in that one after beating Vols twice this season,” he said.
And Mike DeCourcy of the Sporting News has the same result in his bracket. Tennessee over Kentucky next Friday in Indianapolis, with another what-if attached.
“Wouldn’t we all feel so much better about the Wildcats’ chances if their entire rotation were intact?” DeCourcy said. “I’m happy to hear Lamont Butler is expected to be available, but he’s not been able to function as the cohesive force he was for the season’s first three months. And of course Jaxson Robinson would make the team better, as well.
“Still, who in BBN would not take a Sweet 16 run with a chance to beat a rival for a spot in the Elite Eight?”
A Final Four run for UK?
Kentucky hasn’t been to a Final Four since 2015, which is now the second-longest such drought in program history. The Cats went to the Elite Eight in 2019 and 2017.
“I believe Kentucky will get past the first weekend, because I don’t fully trust Illinois in that second-round matchup,” said Steve Wiseman of the News & Observer, based in Raleigh, North Carolina. “I was fortunate to see both UK and Illinois play in person, against Duke, this season. So I think Kentucky’s experience will get it to the Sweet 16 to face Tennessee for a third time. Toss up, but let’s go with UK again before the Cats lose to Houston in the Elite Eight.”
The Houston Cougars are the 1 seed in UK’s Midwest Regional, and they would be the most likely opponent in an Elite Eight matchup.
“I’ve got Kentucky going to the Elite Eight under the expectation Butler is going to be largely productive and not held back,” said Matt Norlander of CBS Sports. “Trusting Kentucky’s performances vs. high-end teams to pay, with maybe one bracket break playing a lesser team.”
Norlander has Houston winning the national title.
The Herald-Leader surveyed more than 30 college basketball experts for their Final Four predictions this year, a group that included more than a dozen reporters who cover the sport from inside the state of Kentucky. None of the locals had UK making the Final Four, and only one person we asked had the Wildcats advancing that far.
That was The Athletic’s Lindsay Schnell.
“It sort of happened by accident,” she said.
Schnell filled out a bracket for The Athletic in the dizzying aftermath of Selection Sunday, explaining her picks in greater detail on that website.
“Am I second-guessing my decision upon remembering that Jaxson Robinson is out for the season? Yes,” she acknowledged. “But I remembered this after I’d picked my bracket — using pen, not pencil — and sent it to my editor. So here we are.”
Yes, here we are, the first NCAA Tournament of the Pope era, and that bracket — with the Cats beating Troy, Illinois, Tennessee and Houston to reach the Final Four for the first time in a decade — is a reminder that anything is possible this time of year.
And, almost always, the four teams still dancing on the final weekend of the college basketball season will need a little luck to get there.
This story was originally published March 19, 2025 at 11:45 AM.
