How No. 3 seed Kentucky matches up against No. 14 seed Troy — with a game prediction
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Men’s NCAA Tournament preview: Kentucky vs. Troy
Click below to read more coverage from the Lexington Herald-Leader and Kentucky.com ahead of Kentucky’s men’s NCAA Tournament opener against Troy University in Milwaukee on Friday night.
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How the men’s NCAA Tournament Midwest Regional No. 3 seed Kentucky Wildcats (22-11) and the No. 14 seed Troy Trojans (23-10) match up at each position for Friday’s game — with my game prediction:
Small forward
▪ Kentucky super-senior Koby Brea (11.5 points, 3.2 rebounds, 46.6% FGs, 43.9% treys) averaged 15.0 points and 3.5 rebounds and made 11 of 22 shots and six of 14 3-pointers in UK’s two SEC Tournament games. The 6-foot-7, 215-pound product of Washington Heights, New York, played well for Dayton in last season’s NCAA Tournament. In the Flyers’ win against Nevada and loss to Arizona, Brea combined to hit nine of 18 3-pointers and averaged 14.5 points.
▪ Troy sophomore Myles Rigsby (12.0 points, 4.0 rebounds, 1.5 steals, 45.4% FGs) had 20 points and made nine of 10 free throws in the Trojans’ 94-81 win against Arkansas State in the Sun Belt Conference Tournament championship game. A 6-6, 190-pound sophomore from Fort Worth, Texas, Rigsby has scored 15 or more points in five of the past six games. Overall, Rigsby has scored in double figures in 21 of Troy’s 33 games this season.
Advantage: Kentucky.
Power forward
▪ Kentucky super-senior Andrew Carr (10.5 points, 4.8 rebounds, 55.4% FGs, 32.8% treys) was a bright spot for UK in Alabama’s 99-70 shellacking of the Wildcats in the SEC Tournament quarterfinals. The 6-11, 235-pound Carr hit eight of 10 shots and scored 18 points in 19 minutes against the Crimson Tide. The product of West Chester, Pennsylvania, enters the NCAA Tournament having scored in double figures in six of UK’s past eight games. Carr has played in one prior NCAA Tournament, in 2021-22, while at Delaware. In an 80-60 loss to Villanova, Carr pitched a perfect game, making all five of his shots, including a 3-pointer, and both his free throws en route to 13 points.
▪ Troy sophomore Thomas Dowd (9.9 points, 6.8 rebounds, 1.0 steals, 43.1% FGs, 30.7% treys) is playing his best basketball at the end of the season. The 6-8, 225-pound product of Dothan, Alabama, has scored in double figures in nine of the Trojans’ past 10 games. As Troy rolled through the Sun Belt Tournament with three double-digits wins, Dowd averaged 14.0 points and 8.0 rebounds. Dowd has three points-rebounds double-doubles this season, and all have come in the season’s last nine games.
Advantage: Kentucky.
Center
▪ Kentucky’s Amari Williams (11.0 points, 8.5 rebounds, 3.1 assists, 1.2 blocks, 57.8% FGs) had 16 points, seven rebounds and four assists in the SEC Tournament loss to Alabama. With 102 assists, the 7-foot, 262-pound Williams is the 11th UK frontcourt player to record at least 100 dimes in a season. Immediately ahead of him on that list are Antoine Walker (104 assists in 1995-96), Heshimu Evans (112 in 1998-99) and Larry Conley (112 in 1963-64). As a freshman at Drexel in 2020-21, Williams played four minutes in the Dragons’ 78-49 loss to Illinois in the NCAA Tournament and had two rebounds and three assists.
▪ Troy junior Jackson Fields (7.9 points, 4.7 rebounds, 49.5% FGs, 33.3% treys) missed his first 12 3-pointers of the season and started the year 3-for-28 from behind the arc. However, beginning with a 5-for-7 performance on 3-pointers in a 71-70 win at Arkansas State on Feb. 15, the 6-8, 220-pound product of Missouri City, Texas, closed out the year on a 16-for-29 stretch of 3-point shooting. In Troy’s 79-60 win against James Madison in the Sun Belt Tournament semifinals, Fields hit five of seven treys and scored 21 points.
Advantage: Kentucky.
Shooting guard
▪ Kentucky leading scorer Otega Oweh (16.2 points, 4.6 rebounds, team-high 1.6 steals, 48.9% FGs, 36.1% treys) had eight points, four rebounds and a bloody lip to show for UK’s loss to Alabama in the SEC Tournament. Of course, in Kentucky’s 85-84 win over Oweh’s former team, Oklahoma, in the SEC Tournament second round, the 6-4, 215-pound product of Newark, New Jersey, had 27 points and the game-winning bucket. Oweh enters NCAA Tournament play having scored 20 or more points in six of UK’s past nine games.
▪ Troy’s Marcus Rigsby Jr. (6.9 points, 2.8 rebounds, 36.6% FGs, 29.2% treys) averaged 8.0 points and 3.7 rebounds in the Sun Belt Conference Tournament. A 6-3, 203-pound product of Fort Worth, Texas, Rigsby is the older brother of Troy forward Myles Rigsby (see above). Marcus Rigsby had eight points in Troy’s 65-49 loss at Arkansas on Nov. 13 and had nine points in the Trojans’ 82-61 loss at Oregon four days later.
Advantage: Kentucky.
Point guard
▪ Kentucky’s Lamont Butler (11.5 points, 2.8 rebounds, 4.3 assists, 1.6 steals, 49.2% FGs, 36.2% treys) reaggravated the injured left shoulder that has plagued him throughout the second half of the season during UK’s win over Oklahoma in the SEC Tournament. The 6-2, 208-pound super-senior then sat out the loss to Alabama in the quarterfinals. A transfer from San Diego State, Butler brings immense NCAA Tournament experience to Friday night’s game. The Moreno Valley, California, product has played in 11 games in The Dance, averaging 8.9 points, and hit the game-winning shot in SDSU’s 72-71 win against Florida Atlantic in the 2023 Final Four.
▪ Troy star Tayton Conerway (14.3 points, 4.6 rebounds, 4.8 assists, 47.2% FGs, 27.7% treys) is one of the nation’s premier ball hawks. A 6-3, 186-pound senior from Burleson, Texas, Conerway is third in NCAA Division I men’s hoops with 97 steals (2.6 per game). Conerway was terrific in the Sun Belt Tournament, averaging 20.3 points, 4.0 rebounds and 3.0 assists to earn Most Outstanding Player honors. In Troy’s three games against power conference foes — road losses at Arkansas, Oregon and Houston — Conerway shot a combined 7-for-33.
Advantage: Even.
Bench
▪ Kentucky senior forward Ansley Almonor (5.6 points, 1.7 rebounds, 52.2% FGs, 43.7% treys) averaged 10.3 points and 6.0 rebounds in three NCAA Tournament games for Fairleigh Dickinson in 2022-23. … Sophomore center Brandon Garrison (5.8 points, 3.9 rebounds, 1.9 assists, 51.3% FGs, 31.4% treys) had five points, three rebounds and two steals in the SEC Tournament win against Oklahoma. … To put together any kind of significant NCAA Tournament run, Kentucky will likely need meaningful contributions from its three freshmen — guard Travis Perry (2.8 points, 32.1% FGs, 33.3% treys), forward Trent Noah (2.7 points, 2.1 rebounds, 43.8% FGs, 32.4% treys) and guard Collin Chandler (2.4 points, 33.3% FGs, 29.3% treys).
▪ Troy freshman Cooper Campbell (5.2 points, 40.8% FGs, 36.4% treys) had six points, four rebounds, and two assists and a steal in 20 minutes in the Sun Belt Tournament finals win over Arkansas State. … The height of 6-9, 210-pound redshirt junior Jerrell Bellamy (4.6 points, 2.2 rebounds, 53.5% FGs) could have value against Kentucky. … A 6-7, 233-pound sophomore, Victor Valdes (4.2 points, 2.2 rebounds, 32.5% FGs, 29.2% treys) had eight points in Troy’s 75-59 win over Old Dominion in the Sun Belt Tournament quarterfinals. … At 6-7, 235 pounds, Randarius Jones (2.9 points, 1.8 rebounds, 62.5% FGs) gives Troy some bulk off its bench.
Advantage: Kentucky.
Intangibles and history
▪ Kentucky is playing in its record 62nd NCAA Tournament, where the Wildcats are 130-55 all-time. Only North Carolina (131) has more wins in The Dance.
▪ Troy will be making its third appearance in the men’s NCAA Tournament. The Trojans lost 71-59 to Xavier in 2003 and fell 87-65 to Duke in 2017.
▪ First-year UK coach Mark Pope is 0-2 in NCAA Tournament contests. Last year at BYU, Pope’s No. 6 seed Cougars were upset by No. 11 Duquesne 71-67. In the 2021 NCAA Tournament, No. 6 BYU lost to No. 11 seed UCLA 73-62.
▪ Troy coach Scott Cross is leading his second team to the NCAA Tournament. In 2008, Cross coached UT Arlington to the tournament. A No. 16 seed, the Mavericks were beaten 87-63 in the round of 64 by No. 1 seed Memphis.
▪ Troy is 0-3 this season versus power conference foes. The Trojans lost on the road at Arkansas (65-49 on Nov. 13), at Oregon (62-42 on Nov. 17) and at Houston (82-61 on Nov. 17).
▪ With Kentucky having lost in recent NCAA tournaments to a No. 15 seed (Saint Peter’s in 2022) and a No. 14 seed (Oakland last season), it would behoove the Wildcats to take control of this game early. The longer it stays close, the more pressure will build on the Wildcats.
Advantage: Kentucky.
Prediction
Kentucky 89, Troy 80.
This story was originally published March 18, 2025 at 12:02 PM.
