Can Kentucky football upset No. 1 Georgia? Reporters see a path, but few are picking it.
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Preview: No. 20 Kentucky at No. 1 Georgia
Click below to read more of the Herald-Leader’s and Kentucky.com’s preview coverage ahead of Saturday’s Kentucky-Georgia football game at 7 p.m. in Athens, Ga.
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It is unlikely Mark Stoops’ Kentucky football team needed any outside motivation to bring its best effort against No. 1 Georgia, but the Wildcats should have no problem playing the us-against-the-world strategy regardless.
The Herald-Leader solicited score predictions for the game from more than 30 reporters who cover Kentucky, Georgia and national college football. Of the reporters who answered the call, only one picked UK to pull off the upset.
It should come as no surprise that the picks were lopsided in Georgia’s favor considering the two-time defending national champions have won 22 consecutive games at home, but most of the reporters still saw a possible path to a Kentucky victory. To better gauge the chances of the upset, the Herald-Leader also asked reporters to outline how Kentucky could shock the college football world.
Here are the responses.
Herald-Leader staff picks
John Clay: I think Kentucky has its best chance in years to finally knock off Georgia. Beating the Bulldogs at Sanford Stadium, under the lights, is a tough ask, however. Georgia 21, Kentucky 17.
Cameron Drummond: A path to victory exists for UK, whether through a breakout game as a Wildcat for Devin Leary, another strong day on the ground from Ray Davis or another X-factor play on special teams from Barion Brown (assuming he plays). That being said, Georgia losing at home (and simply losing in general) is something I’ll have to see first before calling for it to occur. Kentucky does have a puncher’s chance, though. Georgia 27, Kentucky 17.
Mat Graf: UK will have to be meticulous in every facet to produce an upset, but this is not the unthinkable task it’s been during many of the Wildcats’ visits to Athens. Expect the game to be up for grabs in the fourth quarter, but I’ll never pick against a team on a 22-game winning streak. Georgia 26, Kentucky 17.
Jon Hale: This feels like Kentucky’s best chance to beat Georgia in more than a decade, but I just can’t predict the week the Wildcat offense finally clicks on all cylinders will be when Kentucky plays the best opponent on its schedule. Georgia 24, Kentucky 19.
Mark Story: If Kirby is smart (see what I did there?), he will stack the box to take away Davis and force UK’s inconsistent passing attack to make plays against a very skilled Georgia secondary. For UK to win, the Cats will have to find some explosive plays to create touchdowns and not give Georgia anything cheap. Georgia 21, Kentucky 16.
Other media picks
Ralph Russo (Associated Press): The two-time defending national champions have yet to have a statement game this season. Here’s their chance. Georgia 31, Kentucky 14.
Marc Weiszer (Athens Banner-Herald): If Brock Bowers looks more human than superman and if Davis gets half the rushing yards he put up against Florida, watch out. Georgia has lived dangerously in SEC games and look vulnerable to an upset. Georgia 27, Kentucky 17.
Seth Emerson (The Athletic): Kentucky could easily keep this close the way it usually does against Georgia, by shortening the game with long possessions, and it’s possible with Georgia’s run defense looking vulnerable. Kentucky’s defense is also capable of keeping Carson Beck and company in check for enough of the game. I’m not picking the upset, but it wouldn’t shock me if it happened. Georgia 31, Kentucky 13.
Dick Gabriel (Big Blue Insider): Not impossible for the Wildcats to win; they’ll have to play their cleanest game (few penalties, zero drops) and score at least once via defense or special teams. Georgia 27, Kentucky 23.
Jeff Drummond (Cats Illustrated): For the first time under Stoops, I think UK has a legitimate chance to beat the Bulldogs without a long list of improbable criteria lining up. I give UGA the benefit of the doubt at home, but if the Cats play their A game, they could be in this one until the final minutes. Georgia 26, Kentucky 23.
Justin Rowland (Cats Illustrated): If you’re ever going to allow yourself to believe, this is the time. Georgia may be better than the team that barely beat two bottom half of the SEC teams in the first month of the season, but that’s what we know so far. Kentucky’s defense comes up with a couple of second half turnovers. Kentucky 23, Georgia 20.
Aaron Gershon (The Cats’ Pause): If Kentucky can jump out to an early lead, it has the defense to put the Bulldogs away and escape Athens with a historic victory. However, it is hard to predict a win over a Georgia team that has not lost a football game since 2021, will have a rare home night game atmosphere behind them and is still immensely talented. Georgia 27, Kentucky 17.
Ryan Black (The Courier Journal): Leary has to play like the QB who upset Clemson in 2021 and avoid adding to his interception total against a Georgia defense that already has snagged eight picks this season. A game-changing play by the UK defense or special teams unit wouldn’t hurt the upset bid, either. Georgia 34, Kentucky 17.
Dean Legge (Dawg Post): Kentucky would benefit from getting turnovers, and UGA might be happy to help the Cats. Georgia has turned it over five times in the last two games resulting in 21 points. UK winning this game is hardly out of the question, particularly if the Dawgs continue turning it over. That said, the Sanford Stadium crowd will be tough to tame for the Cats. Kirby’s Dawgs are 10-1 against ranked teams at home all time. Georgia 34, Kentucky 17.
Samantha Money (Kentucky Kernel): I think Brad White’s defense will hold Georgia to a respectable measure just as it did last year against the Dawgs, but I think Leary is going to need to have his best performance of the season if Kentucky is going to put up more numbers than Georgia. A terrific rushing game alone (aka Ray Davis) won’t be enough unfortunately for the upset. Georgia 24, Kentucky 14.
Cole Parke (Kentucky Kernel): I think White and the defense will match up well with Georgia. They have in years prior, so this one comes down to the defense. Davis was electric against the Gators, but Kentucky won’t be able to beat Georgia if it continues to be so one-dimensional. If Kentucky wants to win it needs to have both the rushing and passing game going for all four quarters. (South Carolina already found out what happens when you take your foot off the gas.) Georgia 27, Kentucky 17.
Adam Luckett (Kentucky Sports Radio): Kentucky will need a strong performance from Leary and his top three receivers. If the Wildcats make some competitive catches and create explosive plays on offense then the upset becomes a real possibility. Georgia 23, Kentucky 17.
Nick Roush (Kentucky Sports Radio): For the first time in a long time, I believe there’s a real path to an upset. Georgia hasn’t outscored its opponents in the first quarter this season, while Kentucky opened SEC play with 24-0 and 23-0 advantages. If the Cats create early explosives on offense to play with a lead, the defense is good enough to keep it. However, I’m not bold enough to predict a win over No. 1 on the road, something that’s never been done in the playoff era. Georgia 20, Kentucky 13.
Keith Taylor (Kentucky Today): Georgia is beatable, and Kentucky will need to duplicate last week’s performance against Florida with better numbers in the passing game to be successful and have a chance to win. Georgia has the home field advantage, and that’s why I gave them the nod. Again, Georgia is beatable. Georgia 21, Kentucky 17.
Anthony Dasher (UGASports.com): The biggest reason I’m picking Georgia to win is because the game is in Athens. But Kentucky has a chance. Davis will be a handful. But the key to the Wildcats’ success will depend on Leary, who will need a good day throwing the football. As good as Kentucky’s running game is, and even with Georgia’s defense not on the level of the last two years, the Wildcats will not win the game being one-dimensional. Georgia 28, Kentucky 21.
Larry Vaught (Vaught’s Views): Part of me really wants to pick Kentucky but then part of me remembers Georgia is the two-time defending national champion and the game is in Athens. Could UK win? Absolutely. However, my pick is Georgia 20, Kentucky 14 and hoping Vince Marrow can remind me for years I was wrong.
Chuck Culpepper (The Washington Post): Based on what Kentucky did to Florida, what Georgia didn’t do to Auburn and the idea that Kentucky can win if it winds up with the edge in the unpredictable area of quarterback, the upset pick gets tempting even if the prognosticator gets gutless. Georgia 23, Kentucky 22.
Kendrick Haskins (WAVE): I think the Cats will keep it close and the Bulldogs will add a late score. For UK to pull off the upset, they have to control the clock, stay out of third-and-long, and dominate with the run game. Georgia 30, Kentucky 20.
Michael Epps (WDKY): Can’t pick UK to beat the defending champs, but I feel a whole lot more confident than I did each of the past two years. Getting 280 rushing yards again is obviously unrealistic, but 100-150 and a TD from Davis is necessary. This will be Leary’s moment. The Cats will be in some third-and-longs and he will have to make some clutch throws if they want a shot at winning in Athens. Georgia 27, Kentucky 17.
Tyler Greever (WDRB): I think Kentucky will have to find better consistency in the passing game. Receivers have to step up and Leary won’t be able to miss much at all. Georgia 24, Kentucky 20.
Kent Spencer (WHAS): Sounds like a thin Kentucky receiving unit is going to be banged up. You have to be at full strength to have a chance between the hedges. Georgia 24, Kentucky 10.
Kinsey Lee (WLEX): Both teams have had slow starts to the season. If Kentucky has a good first quarter like they have been the past few weeks then I think it’ll be a good game. It will be a physical defensive battle no doubt. Two stout defenses going head to head. We saw what Kentucky’s run game can do against Florida and Georgia doesn’t have a running back like Davis, but you have to have a passing game and be willing to spread the ball out if you want to beat a team like Georgia, especially at night in Athens. Leary and the receivers are the key to this game. No crucial dropped balls and a solid performance in the pass game that can keep the chains moving. The Cats have to have tempo on offense. Georgia hasn’t lost a home game since 2019, so I think the Dawgs win by a field goal. Georgia 24, Kentucky 21.
Dominique Yates (WLKY): In order for Kentucky to upset Georgia, it comes down to three things for me.
▪ Establish the run game. Get Davis going.
▪ Leary has to connect with the receivers. No drops.
▪ For the defense, contain Brock Bowers.
Georgia 28, Kentucky 17.
Lyndsay Gough (WKYT): Kentucky usually plays Georgia well, and this UGA team isn’t as stacked as their national championship squads, but Saturday nights in Sanford Stadium are a tough place to play. UK hasn’t been able to effectively establish the pass game so far. To win, UK has to play a nearly perfect game — a balanced attack on offense with aggressive play calling and cause disruption on defense. I think Dawgs win it, but I’d love to be proved wrong. Georgia 21, Kentucky 14.
Lee K. Howard (WKYT): I believe Kentucky has what it takes to pull off an upset at Georgia, but a lot has to go right for the Wildcats to make it happen. Kentucky will need to establish the run and hit on a few explosive passes to keep the Georgia defense honest. I still think Georgia prevails at home, but an upset isn’t out of the question. Georgia 27, Kentucky 17.
Hallie DeVore (WTVQ): Georgia wins. But I hope I’m wrong! Georgia, in my mind, is one of the strongest programs in college football and is hard to beat down in Athens. If Kentucky wants a win, like Stoops said on Monday, they need a healthy balance of the run game and pass game; it can’t be one or the other like it has been this season. If that’s the case, I think Kentucky could get the upset. If Kentucky upsets, score prediction would be 35-31 Kentucky. Georgia 49, Kentucky 27.
Forrest Tucker (WTVQ): Cats and dogs (or Dawgs if you like to bark at people for fun) is a rivalry as old as time. This one goes to the canines. The Wildcats need to pass just as well as they can run to win, which I think is a tall order given their recent receiving struggles. It’ll be a narrow loss for UK in Athens. Georgia 24, Kentucky 20.
This story was originally published October 6, 2023 at 7:50 AM.
