Three things Kentucky football must do to upset No. 1-ranked Georgia on Saturday

If Kentucky is going to beat the No. 1 team in the nation, the two-time defending national champions, the team that has won 22 straight games, the Wildcats must do a lot of things right Saturday night against the Georgia Bulldogs at Sanford Stadium.

Here are three:

1. Rush for at least 100 yards

UK coach Mark Stoops said it in his Monday press conference, telling the media, “There was a stat I was looking at — I know it’s ridiculous — it was something that you have to have some yards rushing or you don’t have a good chance of beating Georgia.”

It’s true. The last team to beat the Dawgs was Alabama in the 2021 SEC championship game. Bama rushed for 115 yards on 26 carries on the way to a 41-24 victory in Atlanta that day. A month later, the two knocked heads again in the CFP national title game. Same teams, different story. Alabama managed just 30 yards rushing on 28 carries. Georgia took home the trophy 33-18.

Two teams played Georgia within single digits last season. Missouri was one. Eli Drinkwitz’s Tigers rushed for 102 yards on 21 carries in a 26-22 loss to the Bulldogs at Mizzou. Ohio State was the other. Ryan Day’s Buckeyes rushed for 119 yards on 32 attempts in a gut-wrenching 42-41 loss to Georgia in the CFP semifinal.

Compare those numbers to the 2022 national title game in which Georgia limited TCU to 36 rushing yards on 28 carries. And rolled 65-7.

Last Saturday, Auburn led visiting Georgia 20-17 in the fourth quarter before falling 27-20. Hugh Freeze’s Tigers rushed for 219 yards on 43 carries, the most rushing yards allowed by a Georgia defense since 2016. It wasn’t enough for Auburn to claim the victory, but as a two-touchdown favorite, Georgia needed a 40-yard Carson Beck-to-Brock Bowers TD pass with 2:52 left to win it.

Kentucky’s Ray Davis rushed for 280 yards all by himself in UK’s convincing 33-14 win over Florida last Saturday. Of course, after giving up 200-plus in the ground game, Georgia will focus all week on stopping Davis and friends.

2. Play a clean game

Kentucky is 7-8 in SEC games under Stoops when the Wildcats did not commit a turnover. That includes the entire Stoops era, however. Better stat: Kentucky is 5-1 in the last six conference games in which the Cats did not commit a turnover, including last week’s romp over the Gators.

Meanwhile, Ohio State did not commit a turnover in that CFP semifinal game. Neither did Missouri in that close-call in Columbia. In the 2021 SEC title tilt, Alabama played a clean game in its victory. In the rematch, Alabama turned it over twice, compared to Georgia’s one turnover. And Georgia won.

Protecting the football against Kirby Smart’s team is easier said than done, of course. Georgia has forced at least one turnover in each of its first five games this season. Meanwhile, UK quarterback Devin Leary has thrown five interceptions, including a pair in the Cats’ lone road game, the 45-28 victory at Vanderbilt on Sept. 23.

3. Avoid a second-half onslaught

Already this season, Georgia has survived a pair of slow starts. The Bulldogs trailed South Carolina 14-3 at the half before winning 24-14 in Athens on Sept. 16. Last week, Georgia trailed Auburn 10-0 after one quarter. Tied 10-10 at the half, the Bulldogs outscored the host Tigers 17-10 in the second half.

That’s nothing new. Last season, Ohio State led Georgia 28-24 at the half, only to be outscored 18-13 over the final 30 minutes. Up 16-6 on the Dawgs at the half, Missouri was outscored 20-6 in the second half, including 14-3 in the fourth quarter.

In that 2021 national title game, Georgia trailed Alabama 9-6 at intermission, then blitzed the Tide 27-9 in the second half, including 20-9 in the fourth quarter. As Bama coach Nick Saban was congratulating Smart, he told his former assistant, “You guys kicked our (butts) in the fourth quarter.”

If Kentucky is to pull off the upset, that’s just one of the things the Cats must avoid.

This story was originally published October 4, 2023 at 10:51 AM.

John Clay

Lexington Herald-Leader

859-472-4218

John Clay is a sports columnist for the Lexington Herald-Leader. A native of Central Kentucky, he covered UK football from 1987 until being named sports columnist in 2000. He has covered 20 Final Fours and 42 consecutive Kentucky Derbys. Support my work with a digital subscription