Kentucky vs. Vanderbilt prediction: Can Wildcats reach bowl eligibility with upset?

Bowl eligibility is on the line when Kentucky football plays at No. 12 Vanderbilt on Saturday.

The Wildcats must upset either Vanderbilt or Louisville in the regular season to reach six wins and prove the positive momentum built with three straight wins can lead to a win over an FBS team with something still to play for. A win Saturday would also spoil any lingering hopes for Vanderbilt making the College Football Playoff.

The game will kickoff at 3:30 p.m. and be televised on ESPN. Here’s what you need to know about the matchup.

All eyes on Diego Pavia

Kentucky got an early look at Pavia last season when the Vanderbilt quarterback completed 15 of 18 passes for 143 yards, two touchdowns and one interception while rushing for 53 yards on 14 carries in a 20-13 Vanderbilt win. Since then, his star has continued to soar to the point he might earn an invitation to New York as a Heisman Trophy finalist.

“Can’t say enough good things about that young man,” UK coach Mark Stoops said. “He is one heck of a ballplayer, is tough as nails and makes plays when he has to. It will be a great challenge.”

Pavia’s biggest improvements this season have come as a passer.

He has already thrown for more yards (2,440) and touchdowns (21) than last season despite playing three fewer games. His completion percentage has jumped from 59.4% last season to 70% through 10 games this year.

Pavia remains a threat to make plays with his legs too, averaging 5.2 yards per carry with seven rushing touchdowns.

“The difference this year from when we played them last year is just that they’ve really expanded the pass game,” defensive coordinator Brad White said. “The route concepts and the pass game is at a completely different level than it was last year. And so now they have the ability to run and run the ball well, but then also when they want to throw, they can throw the ball really well.”

Kentucky football bowl watch

The SEC’s bowl outlook became a little clearer last week when Florida and South Carolina dropped out of contention for postseason play with their seventh losses. Playing with an interim coach, LSU reached bowl eligibility with its sixth win.

The SEC has 10 bowl-eligible teams with Kentucky (5-5), Mississippi State (5-6) and Auburn (4-6) still capable of reaching six wins. All three of those teams would need to pull off upsets to reach bowl eligibility.

If Kentucky does get to six wins, its bowl destination could be affected by how many SEC teams make the playoff. The most likely outcome remains the Duke’s Mayo Bowl or Liberty Bowl, but Kentucky could be pushed up to a more prestigious bowl if the SEC gets five (or even six) teams in the playoff. In that scenario, there might be only three or four bowl-eligible teams remaining to fill out the SEC’s “Pool of Six” bowls (ReliaQuest, Gator, Texas, Music City, Duke’s Mayo and Liberty).

More wins are always better in the bowl selection process, but it does not appear Kentucky’s outlook would be significantly altered by finishing the regular season at six or seven wins since the two Florida bowls in the “Pool of Six” (ReliaQuest and Gator) are likely to be filled by eight-win teams even if the SEC gets five or six teams in the playoff.

Kentucky football injury report

Kentucky’s secondary will be short-handed again this week.

Cornerbacks DJ Waller, Nasir Addison and Terhyon Nichols are all listed as out on the final SEC-mandated availability report. That means three of UK’s top four players at the position are unavailable, leaving freshman Grant Grayton in line for his second straight start. UK will also be without safety Jordan Lovett and nickel backs Jantzen Dunn and Jaden Smith.

Linebacker Alex Afari and defensive linemen Kahlil Saunders were listed as game-time decisions. Afari missed the Tennessee Tech game with an injury. Saunders was sidelined by an injury in that game.

Backup offensive tackle Malachi Wood is out this week. Wide receiver Troy Stellato, outside linebacker Sam Greene, inside linebacker Devin Smith, offensive guard Aba Selm, wide receiver David Washington and tight end Elijah Brown are out with long-term injuries. Running back Jamarion Wilcox remains suspended following a sexual assault allegation.

Kentucky vs. Vanderbilt prediction

The road team has won the past four games in the series. Vanderbilt is coming off a game in which it surrendered 38 points to an Auburn team that scored just three points against Kentucky. The Wildcats have plenty of positive momentum with three straight wins. All those factors support the chances of a UK upset Saturday, but I can’t pick the Wildcats to win given the growing defensive injury list. UK’s defense has been stellar for three of the past four games, but this feels like it might be a shootout. Vanderbilt 31, Kentucky 28.

The final word

“We’re worried about trying to go 1-0 here this week, so there’s no point in talking about (bowl eligibility). We acknowledge the importance of it, but what does it matter if we don’t take care of business this week? It’s about us just handling our business here this week.” — Stoops on if he will talk about bowl eligibility with his team

This story was originally published November 21, 2025 at 6:00 AM.

Jon Hale

Lexington Herald-Leader

(859) 414-6776

Jon Hale is the University of Kentucky football beat writer for the Lexington Herald-Leader. He joined the Herald-Leader in 2022 but has covered UK athletics for more than 10 years. Hale was named the 2021 Kentucky Sportswriter of the Year. Support my work with a digital subscription