What Vanderbilt’s breakout says about potential for Kentucky football in new era

No single opponent may have had more to do with the increased pressure on Kentucky football coach Mark Stoops this season than Saturday’s foe.

It was the home loss to Vanderbilt in 2022 — one day after Kentucky signed Stoops to a contract extension — that began the downward spiral in results for the Wildcats. Two years later, Vanderbilt defeated Kentucky again in Lexington, sending a message that the perennial SEC cellar dwellers had flipped spots in the league’s pecking order again.

Then this season, as Kentucky struggled to a 2-5 start, Vanderbilt remained a prominent piece of the argument some fans were making for a coaching change.

The Commodores had won seven of their first eight games to vault into the playoff conversation. With the Wildcats left for dead it was easy to wonder, if Vanderbilt can do this why not Kentucky?

The answer might be Kentucky and Mark Stoops have already done what Vanderbilt is doing this season.

“I know how hard it is to get 10 (wins) at a place like that,” Stoops said Monday when asked about parallels between the two programs. “When you come into the league, whatever rung you’re in, whatever spot you’re in, gaining on teams is quite challenging because nobody is interested in this league in going backwards.”

Vanderbilt coach Clark Lea’s breakout season has come during his fifth season leading his alma mater.

The Commodores were 9-27 in Lea’s first three seasons as head coach, then reached his first bowl game with a 7-6 season in Year 4. Kentucky was 12-24 in Stoops’ first three seasons as coach, then also recorded its first bowl appearance with a 7-6 season in Year 4.

Kentucky’s national breakout came in Stoops’ sixth season as coach instead of the fifth.

In 2018, Stoops’ Wildcats won seven of their first eight games, just like Vanderbilt did this season. Kentucky finished the year at 10-3, reaching double digits in wins for the first time in 31 years.

The expanded playoff did not exist in 2018, so Kentucky never quite captured national attention the way Vanderbilt has this season, but it did play Georgia in a winner-take-all game for the SEC East Division in early November.

There are at least a couple of significant differences between the 2018 Kentucky season and 2025 Vanderbilt one that add credence to the idea that Vanderbilt’s current success should be a point in favor of a UK coaching change.

Stoops’ 2018 breakout came in an era when players were not able to transfer without sitting out a season and were not allowed to be paid by schools or NIL collectives. The key to Stoops’ success was identifying overlooked high school talents — such as running back Benny Snell and outside linebacker Josh Allen — and developing them into all-time program greats. Both Snell and Allen played starring roles as seniors on the 2018 Citrus Bowl champion team.

Lea’s Vanderbilt breakout came as a direct result of college football’s recent rule changes.

Following his second 2-10 season in three years on the job in 2023 — a record that might have gotten him fired at almost any other power-conference program — Lea made a shrewd change on his coaching staff that revitalized the Vanderbilt program. Lea hired former New Mexico State offensive coordinator Tim Beck in the same role, then added former New Mexico State head coach Jerry Kill as a consultant.

Five New Mexico State players followed Beck and Kill to Vanderbilt through the transfer portal, including quarterback Diego Pavia and tight end Eli Stowers.

“You have to give credit to Jerry Kill, Tim Beck and Pavia,” Stoops said. “They’ve been together for about four years, so they know the system. They know what they’re doing. They can add and tweak to it all the time.”

The other difference between 2021 Vanderbilt and 2018 Kentucky is the Commodores have thus far avoided the letdown Kentucky experienced in 2018 when it followed the loss to Georgia with a listless showing in a loss to a Tennessee team that finished the year with a losing record. The Tennessee loss ultimately kept Kentucky out of a top-12 spot in the final playoff committee ranking it would have needed to reach a New Year’s Six bowl (the equivalent of reaching the 12-team playoff now).

If Vanderbilt can take care of business against Kentucky and Tennessee in its final two games, it would have a strong argument to be ranked in the top 10 (the last two playoff spots are likely to go to the fourth- and fifth-highest ranked conference champions outside the top 12). Even if Vanderbilt misses the playoff at 10-2, that extra victory would be a major difference from the 2018 Wildcats.

Of course, Kentucky could still say something about how Vanderbilt’s 2025 season is ultimately remembered.

If the Wildcats can pull off the upset in Nashville this weekend, the Commodores would need to win at Tennessee in the regular-season finale to match Kentucky’s 9-3 regular-season record in 2018.

Even in that scenario, Stoops would need to still prove he can coach Kentucky to a similar level of success under the current roster-building format. Lee and Vanderbilt will face questions about whether their success can be sustained without Pavia and Stowers next season, but the Commodores are in the running for a five-star high school quarterback from Nashville.

Stoops appeared to be making an argument he can find similar success in the new era of college football when he closed his Monday news conference by signalling his embrace of the challenges that have come with players being paid. Stoops had previously gained much attention with comments about being exhausted by the constant fundraising needed to win at a program like Kentucky.

“We have good momentum, and we’re really doing things, and we’re working the best we can,” Stoops said. “It’s very complicated on how you can spread that (revenue sharing) money around. I mentioned it before, I’m on the record that I thought it helped us in recruiting with the guys we have locked in. We need to retain, and then we have to have some money to get some free agents. So, we’re working through that as hard as we can.”

This story was originally published November 19, 2025 at 6:30 AM.

Jon Hale

Lexington Herald-Leader

(859) 414-6776

Jon Hale is the University of Kentucky football beat writer for the Lexington Herald-Leader. He joined the Herald-Leader in 2022 but has covered UK athletics for more than 10 years. Hale was named the 2021 Kentucky Sportswriter of the Year. Support my work with a digital subscription