How Kentucky football and No. 12 Vanderbilt match up — with a game prediction

How the Kentucky Wildcats (5-5, 2-5 SEC) and the No. 12 Vanderbilt Commodores (8-2, 4-2 SEC) match up at each position for Saturday’s college football contest — with a game prediction:

Quarterbacks

• It is not surprising for a young QB, but Kentucky redshirt freshman Cutter Boley has been much more effective in home games in 2025 than on the road. At Kroger Field, the 6-foot-5, 220-pound Lexington Christian Academy product has completed 74.6% of his throws for 1,270 yards with 10 touchdowns versus three interceptions. On the road, Boley has completed 59.5% of his throws for 510 yards with three TDs versus five picks. Against a Vanderbilt pass defense that has struggled, UK will need “home field” Boley to have a chance at the upset.

• According to BetOnline.ag, Vanderbilt quarterback Diego Pavia enters play this week as the fourth choice to win the Heisman Trophy at 20-1 odds. The 6-foot, 207-pound super-senior is completing 70% of his passes (191 of 273) and has thrown for 2,440 yards with 21 touchdown throws versus five interceptions. Also a threat with his legs, Pavia has run 117 times for 613 yards and seven TDs. In Vandy’s 20-13 win over Kentucky last season at Kroger Field, Pavia completed 15 of 18 passes for 143 yards and two touchdowns and ran for 53 yards on 14 carries

Advantage: Vanderbilt.

Running backs

• Kentucky senior Seth McGowan (team-high 693 rushing yards, 4.5 yards per carry) ran for 72 yards and three touchdowns in UK’s 42-10 win over previously unbeaten Tennessee Tech last week. The 6-1, 215-pound product of Mesquite, Texas, is tied for 13th in the FBS in rushing touchdowns with 12. Junior Dante Dowdell (528 rushing yards, 3 touchdowns, 5.2 yards per carry) has come on late in the season. The 6-2, 227-pound product of Picayune, Mississippi, has run for 191 yards and two TDs in the past two games combined.

• Vanderbilt’s Sedrick Alexander (438 rushing yards, 8 touchdowns, 5.0 yards per carry; 12 receptions, 119 yards, 4 TDs) had a 65-yard touchdown run in Vandy’s 30-14 loss at Alabama on Oct. 4. The 5-9, 200-pound junior from Austin, Texas, ran for 58 yards on 11 carries last season vs. UK. Senior Makhilyn Young (396 rushing yards, 5 TDs, 9.9 yards per carry) is a home run threat. The 5-10, 195-pound transfer from New Mexico State has three runs of 60 yards or more this season.

Advantage: Kentucky.

Wide receivers

• Kentucky senior slot receiver Kendrick Law (47 receptions, 519 yards, 3 touchdowns) was targeted 11 times vs. Tennessee Tech — and made 11 receptions for 124 yards. During UK’s current three-game win streak, the 6-foot, 205-pound product of Shreveport, Louisiana, has averaged 7.7 catches a game. Sophomore Hardley Gilmore IV (21 catches, 232 yards, 1 TD) had a 45 yard TD catch vs. Tennessee Tech. The 6-1, 183-pound product of Belle Glade, Florida, has had at least two catches in eight of UK’s 10 games.

• Vanderbilt’s Junior Sherrill (35 receptions, 470 yards, 6 touchdowns) leads a balanced wide receiving corps. The 5-11, 188-pound Nashville, Tennessee, product caught a 20-yard TD pass in Vandy’s 45-38 overtime win over Auburn on Nov. 8. Tre Richardson (28 catches, 445 yards, 2 TDs) burned Auburn with big plays, catching three passes for 124 yards and a touchdown. Senior Richie Hoskins (24 catches, 268 yards, 2 TDs) was the leading Vandy receiver in last year’s win over UK with three catches for 44 yards.

Advantage: Vanderbilt.

Tight ends

• Kentucky sophomore Willie Rodriguez (16 catches, 217 yards, 1 TD) did not have a catch vs. Tennessee Tech, the first game this season in which the 6-4, 252-pound Covington Catholic alumnus did not make at least one grab. Senior Josh Kattus ( 16 catches, 190 yards, 2 TDs) also went without a reception vs. Tennessee Tech.

• Vanderbilt’s Eli Stowers leads the Commodores in receptions (51) and receiving yards (669), and has caught four touchdowns. Kentucky coach Mark Stoops says the 6-4, 235-pound senior is “arguably, the best tight end in (college football).” Stowers did not catch a pass vs. UK last season. Senior Cole Spence (10 catches, 154 yards, two TDs) caught the game-winning TD in OT to beat Auburn. Against Kentucky last season, the 6-7, 255-pound Spence caught two passes for 18 yards.

Advantage: Vanderbilt.

Offensive line

• Kentucky backup offensive tackle Malachi Wood logged a season-high 16 snaps vs. Tennessee Tech. The 6-8, 328-pound redshirt sophomore has played a combined 26 snaps over the past two games after playing only 14 snaps total in the first eight games. “He’s definitely on track, definitely getting better,” Stoops said of the Madison Central High School alum. “Even if he’s not getting all the game reps, we’re coaching the heck out of him, and getting a ton of (practice) reps ... and he’s getting better.”

• Vanderbilt used the transfer portal to build an offensive line that has been named a semifinalist for the Joe Moore Award, an honor that signifies the nation’s best offensive front. Center Jordan White and “strong guard” Chase Mitchell played together last season at Liberty.

Advantage: Vanderbilt.

Defensive line

• Kentucky junior end Mi’Quise Humphrey-Grace made a tackle for loss against Tennessee Tech. On the season, the 6-4, 255-pound transfer from South Dakota has two sacks, five TFL, five quarterback hurries and has broken up two passes. Senior tackle Kahlil Saunders (27 tackles, 1.5 sacks, 3 TFL) left the Tennessee Tech game after only 10 snaps due to an injury. Of Saunders’ status for Vandy, “We’ll see as the week goes on,” Stoops said. “I was very encouraged with seeing Kahlil yesterday and talking to our trainers.”

• Vanderbilt edge Miles Capers is disruptive. The 6-4, 235-pound senior from Sumter, South Carolina, has 4.5 sacks, 9.5 tackles for loss, four QB hurries and has both forced and recovered a fumble. Capers had three tackles vs. UK last season. End Khordae Sydnor has also played down hill, with 2.5 sacks, 6.5 TFL and six QB hurries.

Advantage: Kentucky.

Linebackers

• Due to injuries, Kentucky MLB Daveren Rayner (51 tackles, 2 sacks, 5 TFL) was the only of UK’s regular starting LBs to play vs. Tennessee Tech. With WLB Alex Afari sidelined, redshirt sophomore Grant Godfrey made his first career start vs. Tech. A 6-3, 234-pound product of Suwanee, Georgia, Godfrey tied Rayner and Ty Bryant for the team lead with five tackles vs. the Golden Eagles.

• Vanderbilt WLB Bryan Longwell (team-high 59 tackles, 6.5 TFL, 4 QB hurries) made six tackles vs. UK last season. Longwell made 12 stops in the OT win over Auburn. MLB Langston Patterson (51 tackles, 3 QB hurries) had 11 tackles against Auburn.

Advantage: Vanderbilt.

Defensive backs

• Due to injuries, Kentucky had two secondary players make their first career starts vs. Tennessee Tech. Sophomore free safety Cam Dooley intercepted a pass and forced a fumble. “One guy that stood out, that played a very good game would be Cam,” Stoops said. True freshman cornerback Grant Grayton played 49 snaps and was credited with one stop.

• Vanderbilt’s pass defense has been its chief weakness. The Commodores are allowing 244.7 yarda a game, which ranks 104th in the FBS. Vandy has only four interceptions as a team, tied for 113th in the country. Nickelback Randon Fontenette (22 tackles) has broken up five passes and has four QB hurries. Boundary safety CJ Heard (36 tackles) has one pick, a forced fumble and four QB hurries.

Advantage: Kentucky.

Special teams

• Kentucky senior punter Aidan Laros (44.3 yards a kick, 19 of 38 punts stopped inside opponents’ 20) has only kicked twice total in the past two games. Place-kicker Jacob Kauwe is 12 of 15 on field-goal tries with a long make of 51 yards.

• Vanderbilt place-kicker Brock Taylor is 9 of 10 on field goal attempts with a long of 51 yards. Punter Nick Haberer is averaging 46.9 yards a kick and has stopped 9 of 21 kicks inside the opponents’ 20-yard line. Tre Richardson is averaging 26.5 yards on 13 kickoff returns.

Advantage: Vanderbilt.

Prediction

Vanderbilt 31, Kentucky 21.

This story was originally published November 19, 2025 at 6:45 AM.

Mark Story

Lexington Herald-Leader

859-444-4731

Mark Story has worked in the Lexington Herald-Leader sports department since Aug. 27, 1990, and has been a Herald-Leader sports columnist since 2001. I have covered every Kentucky-Louisville football game since 1994, every UK-U of L basketball game but three since 1996-97 and every Kentucky Derby since 1994. Support my work with a digital subscription