UK football mailbag: How will the 2026 recruiting class impact a coaching decision?

With a blowout of FCS Tennessee Tech, Kentucky football has guaranteed its final 2025 record will at least be an improvement over 2024.

But the Wildcats now have bigger goals in sight with one more win needed to reach bowl eligibility. Getting a sixth victory will not be easy with road games at Vanderbilt and Louisville remaining, but even to be in this situation represents an impressive turnaround for a season that was left for dead only three weeks ago.

How is Big Blue Nation feeling after a third straight UK win? The Herald-Leader took to social media to ask for questions and takeaways after the 42-10 win against Tennessee Tech.

Here is a sampling of those responses.

@ILikeTrees7 on Bluesky: All about expectations. Over/under on wins for the season was 4 1/2. UK has now won more, beating the general expectations at the start of the season.

At least three online sportsbooks did have UK’s over/under set at 4.5, but DraftKings had the Wildcats’ number at 5.5. The point stands, though, that Kentucky has exceeded some outside preseason expectations and has vastly exceeded expectations over the last three games. It probably is worth noting though that in the same way perception of the season has changed after three straight wins, it can just as easily switch back if Kentucky closes out the year with losses to Vanderbilt and Louisville. Do that, and I don’t think many fans are going to be satisfied just because Kentucky hit the over on the lowest win projections.

@RinoTrollCat on X: Stoops appears to have saved his job, but many fans are waiting to see how they finish in recruiting and in the portal before passing judgment. Looks like they’re trending for one of the lowest ranked classes in the SEC. Can they salvage this class before signing day?

I understand this question, but the decision on who next season’s coach is will likely be made before high school signing day and certainly before the transfer portal opens in January. I’ve been consistent throughout the year in my opinion that there was never a scenario where Mark Stoops was getting outright fired because Kentucky cannot afford to pay the buyout specified in his contract. The path to a coaching change always involved Stoops deciding to negotiate that buyout to walk away. If Kentucky gets to a bowl, I don’t think the administration should pay Stoops anything to walk away, but the possibility remains that he thinks a fresh start is best for his career. I’m still guessing even in that scenario, he would be looking for another job at some point in December.

But in regard to the recruiting class, RinoTrollCat is right. The high school class is currently ranked 51st nationally and 15th in the SEC, according to the 247Sports Composite. That ranking might be inflated, too, if four-star quarterback Matt Ponatoski elects to sign a professional baseball contract after the MLB draft next June. Kentucky did recently host four-star Florida running back commitment Carsyn Baker for an official visit. Flipping him would at least add some star power to the class.

This does not appear to be a high school class that is going to move the needle much in terms of Kentucky’s 2026 outlook. Regardless of who the coach is next season, the work done in the transfer portal in January is going to be most important, and the targets there will largely depend on which of the underclassmen Kentucky convinces to stick around.

Mike Johnson on X: How well did the defensive replacements play and can we expect any of the injured players back for Vandy or Louisville?

Safety Cam Dooley appeared to have the best day of the fill-ins with an interception and forced fumble, but defensive coordinator Brad White was not pleased with the defense’s performance as a whole after the game.

“We have a standard in which we play,” White said. “I don’t think our pass lanes were clean. I don’t think our run fits were clean. … Good football teams are gonna move the ball. We get that. But there’s self-inflicted mistakes that are training camp mistakes at this point in the season we shouldn’t be making.”

White’s tone after the game suggested he knows the same level of performance against Tennessee Tech will not be good enough in the final two games. He acknowledged some of the mistakes were caused by young backups playing, but others came from veterans they will need to count on the next two weeks. And because of the injuries, some of those young backups will need to play, too.

Inside linebacker Alex Afari should be back at some point in the next two weeks, but outside linebacker Sam Greene and safety Jordan Lovett are done for the season. Cornerback is another concern as DJ Waller was unable to play again despite practicing all week. He hasn’t played since Week 1 due to a hamstring injury. Terhyon Nichols and Nasir Addison were also both out against Tennessee Tech, forcing freshman Grant Grayton to make his first start.

Waller is clearly close to playing, but at this point it would be difficult to count on him. Stoops said after the game the staff will try to preserve Addison’s redshirt season, which has to mean he thinks Waller and/or Nichols will be available next week. But in a season full of bad injury luck at that position, all bets are off.

Michael Durrett on X: Like the way the team is playing. They took care of business today like they should have. Tenn Tech is not Vandy, but playing against a running QB, do you think it helps KY be prepared for Vandy or, no, it’s a different kinda of game against Vandy? What are KY chances?

I think there’s only one Diego Pavia, but I think playing a mobile quarterback this week can’t hurt in the preparation for Vanderbilt. White downplayed that storyline when asked after the game, but it at least offers the defense a well-timed reminder of the damage a dual-threat quarterback can do. I’ve been waiting for Vanderbilt to have its version of the 2018 Kentucky letdown all year, but it’s probably time just to believe in the Commodores. This feels like a week when Kentucky’s defensive injuries could be a real problem, but Vanderbilt’s defense was bad enough in its last game against Auburn to think Kentucky should be competitive even in a higher scoring game.

Clay Mason on X: Why did Stoops turn to Brennen Ward as QB instead of Stone Saunders or Beau Allen?

It would have been nice to get Allen another appearance in his final home game as a Wildcat, but since he played the week before against Florida, the staff clearly wanted to take the opportunity to get the freshmen their first snaps. Stoops said after the game his lone disappointment from the afternoon was not getting Sanders in the game too.

While Saunders received more attention as a recruit because of his record-breaking prep career in Pennsylvania, I’ve been told since the spring when both freshmen arrived that Ward was further ahead in his development. Stoops’ postgame comments suggest the staff still likes both quarterbacks, but Ward getting the call first against Tennessee Tech is clear evidence of the current pecking order.

It will be fascinating to see how the quarterback room changes over the offseason. If Kentucky can convince Cutter Boley to stay, it wouldn’t be a shock to see one or both of the freshmen look elsewhere for a clearer path to snaps. That path gets even more complicated if Ponatoski makes it to campus next summer. Kentucky needs at least one of them to stick around, though, because Allen and Zach Calzada are out of eligibility. Shopping for a backup quarterback in the portal is never easy when you have a firmly entrenched starter like Boley on the roster.

Ed Helinski on X: What’s your psychic, ouija board or tarot cards saying about Kentucky’s chances for a win against Vandy or Louisville?

Ed submitted a similar question after the Tennessee game, asking me to predict how the rest of the year would play out. While acknowledging I didn’t feel great about the prediction after the blowout loss, I stuck with my call that Kentucky would be 5-6 entering the Louisville game. I’m not changing now that Kentucky has actually gotten to five wins. I think the defensive injuries keep them from pulling off the upset at Vanderbilt this week, but I think the chance to play the Governor’s Cup rivalry with bowl eligibility and bragging rights versus Vince Marrow on the line leads to a UK win in the finale.

This story was originally published November 17, 2025 at 6:30 AM.

Jon Hale

Lexington Herald-Leader

(859) 414-6776

Jon Hale is the University of Kentucky football beat writer for the Lexington Herald-Leader. He joined the Herald-Leader in 2022 but has covered UK athletics for more than 10 years. Hale was named the 2021 Kentucky Sportswriter of the Year. Support my work with a digital subscription