Governor’s Cup predictions: Rounding up Kentucky-Louisville media picks

Picking a winner for the 2025 edition of the Governor’s Cup rivalry is no easy task.

Both Kentucky and Louisville enter the game coming off blowout losses. Each team has a long list of injuries to key players. Neither fan base is happy about the way the season has gone.

While Louisville is a three-point favorite as the home team and spent much of the season in the top 25, it’s Kentucky that received the majority of picks from local reporters, most of whom were willing to overlook the Vanderbilt loss and Wildcats’ defensive injury crisis because of Louisville’s three-game losing streak and sagging offense.

Is the consensus correct? Chime in with your own picks in the comments.

Herald-Leader staff picks

Jon Hale: Louisville looks like a team that is finished after three straight losses, but I can’t get the vision of that Vanderbilt performance from Kentucky out of my mind. The only thing I’m really confident about is that this game is going to be ugly, but I think UK’s defense has too many injuries to overcome. Louisville 21, Kentucky 17.

Caroline Makauskas: Kentucky’s momentum was halted by last weekend’s beatdown in Nashville, but the Wildcats are still hungry for bowl eligibility. Despite several defensive starters out for the rest of the season, I’m anticipating Brad White will have the unit ready to take down Louisville’s equally battered offense. If Cutter Boley and the offensive line are on the same page, I think the Wildcats will pull out the win. Kentucky 17, Louisville 14.

Mark Story: I was going to pick UK until I watched what happened to the Cats at Vandy. Not sure a team can bounce back in a week from a beating like that. Louisville 26, Kentucky 24.

Other media picks

Mike Rutherford, Card Chronicle: Whether Louisville is going to have enough healthy players to actually play this game might be the biggest storyline of the week. Kentucky 26, Louisville 13.

Jeff Drummond, Cats Illustrated: This feels like it could go either way, pending things like turnovers and how the ball bounces, but the Cats have been playing better in the second half of the season than the Cards. Plus, homefield advantage hasn’t really meant much in the Governor’s Cup. Kentucky 26, Louisville 23.

Justin Rowland, Cats Illustrated: We saw Kentucky play really poorly against Vanderbilt, but that was a big day for Diego Pavia, and he didn’t miss. Louisville has lost three in a row including two at home, and it’s a good matchup for Boley with bowl eligibility on the line. Kentucky 30, Louisville 17.

Cole Parke, The Cats’ Pause: Call me crazy after last week, but this team still has a bizarre “team of destiny” feel to it for me. That destiny? Win exactly six games and get back to a bowl game. Kentucky is super injured right now, but so is Louisville and the Cardinals’ season has taken an absolute nosedive since losing to Cal and being eliminated from the ACC Championship. After last year and the emotions coming into it, give me the Wildcats to get their revenge. Kentucky 24, Louisville 18.

Ryan Black, Courier Journal: After getting to 7-1, the Cardinals have dropped three straight. The Wildcats, on the other hand, must win this game to clinch a bowl berth. UK needs it more. That’ll be the difference in a nail-biting chapter of the Governor’s Cup. Kentucky 20, Louisville 17.

Alexis Cubit, Courier Journal: For all of the struggles the Cardinals have had, they’ll be able to find a way to win a second straight Governor’s Cup. Louisville 31, Kentucky 28.

Adam Luckett, Kentucky Sports Radio: Louisville is not built to take advantage of Kentucky’s porous pass defense no matter who is at QB. UK’s offense rediscovers run-pass balance in a game that will be a race to 21 points. Kentucky 28, Louisville 13.

Nick Roush, Kentucky Sports Radio: Louisville let go of the rope. Their only offense is on the ground, and all of those guys are hurt. Kentucky has proven they are exceptional against the run, and that no matter how bleak things may look, they will not quit. This will feel a lot like the Florida game when the Wildcats dish out some retribution for last year’s blowout. Kentucky 31, Louisville 10.

Matt McGavic, Louisville on SI: Just a few weeks ago, I didn’t think that Kentucky had a snowball’s chance in hell at winning this game. But Louisville’s roster looks like an infirmary right now, and their offense was already trending downward even when somewhat healthy. Then you add the fact that, despite getting smoked at Vanderbilt, the Wildcats do look a lot better over the last month or so. I am leaning toward UK pulling off the home “upset.” Kentucky 17, Louisville 14.

Larry Vaught, VaughtsViews.com: It’s so hard to not only know who will be healthy enough to play for both teams, but which team will play the hardest. Turnovers could decide the winner but so could the home field edge. Louisville 24, Kentucky 21.

Dusty Baker, WAVE-TV: Both teams are heading into this game coming off their worst performances of the season. With Chris Bell announced as out for the game, along with the other Cards injuries, I don’t see how their three-game slide ends vs. a Cats team that has shown some signs of life on offense outside of the Vanderbilt game. Kentucky 23, Louisville 19.

Kaden Gaylord-Day, WKYT-TV: I think Louisville’s injuries are a lot grander. Kentucky’s offense should be healthy enough to put up enough points on a Louisville team that seems to be getting worse each week. The Kentucky defense has always responded well after a bad loss, and I don’t see that changing at the end of the season with bowl eligibility on the line. Kentucky 28, Louisville 17.

Lyndsey Gough, WKYT-TV: Going with Kentucky, because it has more at stake and Louisville has some injury issues. It wouldn’t be the first time we’ve seen a Stoops UK team go in to U of L needing that sixth win and leaving bowl eligible. Kentucky 24, Louisville 21.

Jordan Adams, WDKY-TV: With neither team at full strength I expect UK to beat U of L because of the advantage at QB with Boley and Louisville’s lack of playmakers on the field. Kentucky 27, Louisville 21.

Tom Lane, WDRB-TV: The Cardinals depleted offense is unable to overcome the Wildcats depleted defense. Cats get bowl eligible. Cards limp into a bowl with four consecutive defeats. Kentucky 24, Louisville 20.

Sarandon Raboin, WHAS-TV: While the injury bug has hit both teams, Louisville’s offense looks decimated by it. Without stars like Chris Bell and Isaac Brown, it’s going to be an uphill battle for the Cards to get offensive production. Especially with multiple quarterbacks in the mix. Kentucky’s offense has found a rhythm with Boley and has enough to beat the Cards on the road. Kentucky 17, Louisville 10.

This story was originally published November 28, 2025 at 5:00 AM.

Jon Hale

Lexington Herald-Leader

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Jon Hale is the University of Kentucky football beat writer for the Lexington Herald-Leader. He joined the Herald-Leader in 2022 but has covered UK athletics for more than 10 years. Hale was named the 2021 Kentucky Sportswriter of the Year. Support my work with a digital subscription