Kentucky vs. Louisville prediction: Can Cats win Governor’s Cup to reach bowl?

Kentucky football wraps up the 2025 regular season Saturday in the Governor’s Cup rivalry game at Louisville.

With a win, the Wildcats would qualify for a bowl game for the ninth time in 10 seasons. With a loss, Kentucky would stumble to a second straight losing season.

Regardless of Saturday’s outcome, Sunday figures to be an important day for the future of the program as we await word from UK athletic director Mitch Barnhart about Mark Stoops’ status and plans for 2026.

Until then, here is what you need to know about the 2026 edition of the Governor’s Cup rivalry.

What momentum?

Neither team finds itself surrounded by many positive vibes heading into the matchup.

Much of the goodwill Kentucky built with a three-game November winning streak evaporated with a 45-17 loss at Vanderbilt last week. The cumulative effect of multiple injuries to key players on Kentucky’s defense was exposed in that loss, and Vanderbilt appeared to devise a successful strategy that negated much of the offensive schematic changes Kentucky had made during its second-half surge.

Louisville appears to be in even worse shape, though.

The Cardinals’ dreams of making the playoff seem like a distant memory after three straight losses, capped by a 38-6 blowout loss at SMU last week. Louisville has lost its past two home games and faces its own injury crisis with the status of key players at quarterback, running back and wide receiver uncertain for Saturday.

“The scheme is their scheme,” UK defensive coordinator Brad White said. “And so what we’re going to do is we’re going to prepare, and whoever we line up against, we’ve got to do our job. We’ve got to worry about us, and they’ve got plenty of really talented players that we’ve got to worry about.”

The good news for Kentucky is this team has proven capable of bouncing back from embarrassing performances already this year.

After a 56-34 home loss to Tennessee extended its losing streak to four games, Kentucky earned its first SEC win in more than a year a week later at Auburn. That performance kickstarted the three-game winning streak that put the Wildcats back in contention for a bowl game.

“We have faced adversity throughout this year and have bounced back in a good way for the most part,” Stoops said. “We have played very good football teams. Vandy is certainly one of them. We have played other very good teams this year. Some we have played well and some not so well. We have come back and responded and regrouped and we are going to have to do the same thing.”

Bowl watch

If Kentucky beats Louisville to reach six wins and bowl eligibility, the Wildcats’bowl destination may depend on what happens elsewhere in the SEC this weekend.

The league currently has five teams ranked in the top 10, in position to reach the playoff. If all five win their games as favorites this week (meaning Mississippi State and Auburn lose their games to fall short of bowl eligibility), the SEC would have only five eligible teams for its “Pool of Six” bowl games (ReliaQuest, Gator, Texas, Music City, Duke’s Mayo and Liberty). In that scenario in previous years, the Liberty has been the game left without an SEC team.

The Duke’s Mayo Bowl would make the most sense as Kentucky’s destination in that scenario due to the SEC’s selection process, which emphasizes avoiding repeat trips and matchups in a short window. The Texas and Music City bowls could still be in the running depending on which ACC team is on the other side of the Mayo bowl and the preferences of the available seven and eight-win SEC teams.

If one or more of the top five SEC teams lose this week (and UK wins), projecting Kentucky’s bowl gets more difficult.

Having only four SEC teams in the playoff would ensure the Liberty Bowl gets an SEC team, and Kentucky would be a logical pick for the game in Memphis. If Mississippi State or Auburn knock off one of the top five, an additional bowl-eligible SEC team would join the mix, possibly pushing Kentucky out of the “Pool of Six” entirely. Then, ESPN would assign the Wildcats to either the Birmingham or Gasparilla bowls to face an AAC team.

Kentucky football injury report

There is no public availability report this week since UK is not playing an SEC foe, so we likely won’t learn the status of several injured players until pregame warmups.

Safety Jordan Lovett, outside linebackers Sam Greene and Kam Olds and tight end Josh Kattus are definitely out. The status of inside linebacker Alex Afari and cornerbacks DJ Waller, Terhyon Nichols and Nasir Addison is still up in the air.

“We hope to get some back,” Stoops said Monday. “That is eight defensive players that have been out. Maybe one or two that we hope to get back.”

There has been no indication that Boley is still affected by the neck injury that briefly sidelined him against Vanderbilt, but do not be surprised if one or more players we don’t know are dealing with a physical issue end up unavailable Saturday.

Kentucky vs. Louisville prediction

Louisville looks like a team that is finished after three straight losses, but I can’t get the vision of that Vanderbilt performance from Kentucky out of my mind. The only thing I’m really confident about is that this game is going to be ugly, but I think UK’s defense has too many injuries to overcome. Louisville 21, Kentucky 17.

The final word

“If I’m gonna call a spade a spade, we got waxed last week. We didn’t do our job. But I think that we come in on Monday, we watch the film and figure out. OK, we don’t like the feeling of getting waxed. We hate it. So now this is what we have to do moving forward to make sure that this doesn’t happen.” — UK linebacker Daveren Rayner

This story was originally published November 28, 2025 at 6:00 AM.

Jon Hale

Lexington Herald-Leader

(859) 414-6776

Jon Hale is the University of Kentucky football beat writer for the Lexington Herald-Leader. He joined the Herald-Leader in 2022 but has covered UK athletics for more than 10 years. Hale was named the 2021 Kentucky Sportswriter of the Year. Support my work with a digital subscription