How Kentucky football and Louisville match up — with a game prediction

How the Kentucky Wildcats (5-6, 2-6 SEC) and the Louisville Cardinals (7-4, 4-4 ACC) match up at each position for Saturday’s college football contest — with a game prediction:

Quarterbacks

• Last season as a true freshman, Kentucky’s Cutter Boley made his first career start vs. Louisville. Boley completed only 6 of 15 passes for 48 yards, was sacked twice, threw two interceptions and was knocked from the game due to injury in what became a 41-14 UK loss. As a redshirt frosh, the 6-5, 220-pound Boley (67.3% pass completions, 2,060 yards, 15 touchdowns vs. 10 interceptions) has established himself as a legitimate, SEC-caliber QB. In his nine starts this season, the former Lexington Christian Academy star has thrown for more than 200 yards six times and gone over 300 yards once (330 vs. Tennessee).

• Louisville starter Miller Moss (64.3% completions, 2,344 yards, 11 TDs vs. seven picks) did not play in last week’s 38-6 loss to SMU due to a foot injury. The status of the 6-2, 210-pound USC transfer for Saturday’s game was unclear as of Tuesday. In the absence of Moss, redshirt freshman Deuce Adams got the start at SMU. The 6-2, 190-pound product of Austin, Texas, completed 12 of 17 passes for 94 yards in the loss to the Mustangs. Adams was sacked twice by SMU and threw no touchdowns or interceptions.

Advantage: Kentucky

Running backs

• Kentucky senior Seth McGowan (team-high 720 rushing yards, 12 touchdowns, 4.4 yards per carry) never really got started in UK’s 45-17 loss at Vanderbilt last week. The 6-1, 215-pound senior carried 10 times for only 27 yards vs. the Commodores. Vandy also stoned Kentucky’s second-leading rusher Dante Dowdell (533 rushing yards, 3 touchdowns, 5 yards per carry). The 6-2, 227-pound junior was held to five yards on four carries vs. Vanderbilt.

• As true freshman last season, Louisville’s Isaac Brown and Duke Watson gashed Kentucky. The 5-9, 190-pound Brown ran for 178 yards and two touchdowns, while Watson went for 104 rushing yards and two TDs on only six carries. This season, Brown (782 rushing yards, five touchdowns, 8.2 yards per carry) and Watson (158 yards, one TD, 3.2 ypc average) have battled injuries, as has top reserve Keyjuan Brown (592 yards, six TDs, 7.3 ypc). Due to injuries, U of L had to use wide receiver Shaun Boykins Jr. at running back at SMU, and he ran for 52 yards on eight attempts. If healthy, U of L has more talented backs than UK, but it was unclear Tuesday whether any of the Cardinals’ top three backs will be available vs. Kentucky.

Advantage: Kentucky

Wide receivers

• After Kentucky senior slot receiver Kendrick Law (50 receptions, 524 yards, 3 touchdowns) made 11 receptions for 124 yards in UK’s 42-10 win over Tennessee Tech two weeks ago, the Alabama transfer was held to five yards on three catches vs. Vanderbilt. Sophomore Hardley Gilmore IV (27 catches, 287 yards, 1 TD) had six catches for 55 yards vs. Vandy. Seniors Fred Farrier II (11 catches, 132 yards, one TD) and J.J. Hester (seven receptions, 111 yards, four TDs) each caught a fourth-quarter touchdown pass at Vanderbilt.

• At his Monday news conference, Jeff Brohm announced that U of L leading receiver Chris Bell (72 catches, 917 yards, six touchdowns) “will be out” vs. UK. North Carolina State transfer Dacari Collins (11 catches, 179 yards) is No. 2 behind Bell on the U of L depth chart. With Bell out, U of L will need a big showing from redshirt senior Caullin Lacy (54 catches, 547 yards, two TDs).

Advantage: Even

Tight ends

• Kentucky sophomore Willie Rodriguez (22 catches, 295 yards, 1 TD) had a career-high six catches for 78 yards last week at Vanderbilt. “Willie made some spectacular catches,” Mark Stoops said. “You know, that’s a quarterback’s friend when you do that.” Senior Josh Kattus ( 17 catches, 195 yards, 2 TDs) suffered a season-ending injury at Vandy. That will presumably mean more run Saturday for mammoth 6-6, 265-pound Illinois transfer Henry Boyer (five catches, 62 yards).

• Juniors Nate Kurisky, a 6-3, 240-pound product of Leesburg, Virginia, and Jaleel Skinner, a 6-5, 230-pound product of Greer, South Carolina, give Louisville a 1-2 punch. Kurisky has 19 catches for 151 yards and two touchdowns. He caught one pass for nine yards vs. UK in 2024. Skinner has 18 receptions for 178 yards and a TD.

Advantage: Even

Offensive line

• After Jager Burton’s attempt to move from guard to center in 2023 did not last, the Kentucky redshirt senior has successfully made the transition in 2025. The 6-4, 323-pound Frederick Douglass High School product will play his final regular season game as a Wildcat Saturday vs. U of L.

• Louisville center Pete Nygra anchors a line that has surrendered 22 quarterback sacks this season, one fewer than UK has allowed, and has blocked for a rushing attack that ranks No. 71 in the FBS with an average of 153.9 yards a game.

Advantage: Louisville

Defensive line

• Kentucky junior end Mi’Quise Humphrey-Grace sacked Vanderbilt quarterback Diego Pavia 1.5 times last week. For the season, the 6-4, 255-pound Cincinnati product is tied for the team lead with 3.5 sacks and leads the Wildcats in QB hurries with six.

• Louisville has gotten disruption from its defensive ends. Junior Clev Lubin, a 6-3, 250-pound product of Suffern, New York, has five sacks, five QB hurries, 8.5 tackles for loss and has broken up five passes. A 6-5, 265-pound senior from Ottawa, Ontario, Canada, Wesley Bailey has five sacks, five QB hurries and six TFL.

Advantage: Even

Linebackers

• With injuries having left Kentucky MLB Daveren Rayner (team-high 66 tackles, two sacks, 6.5 TFL) as the only regular LB playing, the 6-2, 217-pound senior from Indianapolis has stepped up. In the loss at Vandy, Rayner made 15 tackles, eight of them solo, and was credited with 1.5 TFL. “He’s playing really well,” Mark Stoops said of Rayner. “Very happy for him and for us.” With injuries having sidelined UK’s top two rush end/jack linebackers, sophomore Steven “Sack’em” Soles (3.5 sacks, three QB hurries, two forced fumbles) is in line to start.

• Louisville WLB TJ Quinn is having an All-ACC caliber season. The 6-1, 235-pound product of Valdosta, Georgia, has made 77 tackles, four tackles for loss, intercepted two passes and broken up three. At MLB, Tennessee transfer Kalib Perry, the former Great Crossing High School standout, has made 47 tackles, two QB hurries and 1.5 TFL.

Advantage: Louisville

Defensive backs

• Kentucky was without its starting free safety and three of its top four cornerbacks at Vanderbilt due to injuries — and Diego Pavia strafed the Wildcats pass defense for 484 yards. Strong safety Ty Bryant did intercept his SEC-leading fourth pass at Vanderbilt. The former Frederick Douglass star has also made 60 tackles.

• Louisville strong safety D’Angelo Hutchinson has turned in a strong all-around season. The 6-3, 200-pound product of St. Petersburg, Florida, has made 69 tackles, broken up five passes, hurried the quarterback twice and picked off one pass. Cornerback Jabari Mack has two interceptions, two pass breakups and has made 31 stops.

Advantage: Louisville

Special teams

• Kentucky senior punter Aidan Laros (44.6 yards a kick, 19 of 44 punts stopped inside opponents’ 20) punted six times at Vanderbilt for an average of 46.7 yards. Place-kicker Jacob Kauwe is 13 of 16 on field-goal tries with a long make of 51 yards.

• Louisville place-kicker Cooper Ranvier accounted for all the Cardinals scoring in the loss at SMU with field goals of 29 and 36 yards. On the season, Ranvier is 19 of 22 on field goal tries with a long make of 51 yards. Punter David Chapeau punted six times for an average of 40.5 yards vs. SMU and pinned the Mustangs inside their 20 twice. On the season, Chapeau is averaging 38.9 yards a kick and has stopped 11 of 34 punts inside the 20. Caullin Lacy has two long punt-return touchdowns this season of 75 and 93 yards.

Advantage: Louisville

Prediction

Louisville 26, Kentucky 24

This story was originally published November 26, 2025 at 6:30 AM.

Mark Story

Lexington Herald-Leader

859-444-4731

Mark Story has worked in the Lexington Herald-Leader sports department since Aug. 27, 1990, and has been a Herald-Leader sports columnist since 2001. I have covered every Kentucky-Louisville football game since 1994, every UK-U of L basketball game but three since 1996-97 and every Kentucky Derby since 1994. Support my work with a digital subscription