Thoughts on challenges ahead, and where Kentucky basketball recruiting goes from here
A unique college basketball recruiting cycle hit its first major milestone this week with the end of the early signing period.
Some thoughts on what’s already happened in Kentucky’s drive toward another top-ranked recruiting class and what’s to come over the next few months:
Kentucky’s strong start
The Wildcats exited the early signing period with just one five-star commitment — UK’s lowest number at this stage in a cycle since John Calipari’s first season in Lexington — but, all things considered, Kentucky did well.
Due to the COVID-related travel restrictions enacted by the NCAA this year, none of UK’s three early signees were able to take recruiting visits to Lexington. In fact, none of the three even had UK scholarship offers until the summer. Point guard Nolan Hickman jumped at that offer. Small forward Bryce Hopkins actually traveled to Lexington from Chicago on his own dime to see the campus with his family, even though they weren’t allowed to meet with the basketball staff or see the program’s facilities. And five-star power forward Daimion Collins — once thought a sure thing to stay closer to his east Texas home — was convinced to sign on with the Cats sight unseen.
A stickler for taking things slow when it comes to recruiting, Calipari switched up his approach just enough to keep the evaluation process — on and off the court — intact and land a trio of promising young players who want to play for the Wildcats.
Kentucky came out of the signing period with the No. 3 class in the country, and the Cats have a good shot to move into that top spot by next summer. In these craziest of times, that should be seen as a major victory.
New recruiting approach
In the short term, the most interesting aspect of Kentucky recruiting will be how exactly the Cats go about it following a major coaching staff shakeup. Kenny Payne has gone off to the NBA. Tony Barbee has been named the associate to the head coach. Bruiser Flint is a new assistant coach, but the bulk of the recruiting efforts will be led by Joel Justus and newcomer Jai Lucas.
That could be an intriguing — and successful — duo.
Obviously, the mix of Payne, Barbee and Justus worked wonders on the recruiting trail, with each of those coaches landing his fair share of top-ranked prospects. But, at times, that setup seemed — to the outside observer — a bit scattershot, less of a coordinated effort and more a collection of individual-led recruitments.
With Justus and Lucas — two assistant coaches viewed as rising stars in the profession — seemingly working together on a coordinated recruiting plan, the results will be interesting. “Joel and Jai — I want you on that recruiting. Ten hours a day!” Calipari said when announcing the staff shakeup last month.
Obviously, Barbee and Flint (and others within UK’s support staff) will be integral on these ongoing Zoom calls with recruits and, especially, once on-campus visits start back up again. That’s always been the case when recruits come to town.
In the meantime, it’ll be fascinating to watch what comes of the Justus-Lucas pair-up, and how Kentucky’s overall recruiting approach might change as a result.
Will there be official visits?
Few programs are better built for this Zoom era of recruiting than Kentucky, which has perhaps the greatest recruiter in the sport, arguably the best group of assistant coaches in the country, and an aforementioned support staff that excels at selling all aspects of the program, on and off the court.
But there’s a lot to be said for a recruit’s experience of visiting Lexington and seeing everything related to the Kentucky basketball program up close.
When will that happen again? And how will it affect how UK closes out its 2021 class?
None of the four (seemingly) most likely additions from the class of 2021 — Jaden Hardy, Brandin Podziemski, Efton Reid and Hunter Sallis — have been to Lexington. Sallis, specifically, has said he’s holding off on a college decision in hopes of taking some campus visits first. UK would be at the top of his list for such a trip.
The NCAA announced this week that it has pushed its recruiting travel ban through April 15, meaning there won’t be any campus recruiting visits during the upcoming season (so none of these prospects will get to see Kentucky actually play a game). For a while now, this mid-April time frame has been seen as a possible end to the recruiting dead period. It didn’t make any sense — amid a pandemic — to allow campus visits during the season, and mid-April is the traditional start of the evaluation periods when college coaches watch recruits play with their travel teams.
Will it actually be the end? That will depend on the COVID-19 numbers once we get to that time. Until then, it’s all Zooms and phone calls and film sessions for college coaches and high school recruits. And those on UK’s 2021 radar will be waiting to see if they can travel to some campuses before making their college decisions.
The transfer game
We’ve been inching toward this for a couple of years now, but the recruiting landscape is about to change in a big way. The NCAA is expected to give the OK to “free transfers” early next year, and it’ll mean that — starting with this recruiting cycle — college players in good academic standing will be able to transfer to another school and play right away, without the need of a waiver from the NCAA.
This was basically the case this past offseason — with the NCAA being much more lenient with transfer waivers amid the COVID-19 pandemic — but the floodgates on transfers are likely to truly open next year.
Kentucky added three transfers this year — Davion Mintz, Olivier Sarr and Jacob Toppin — and the Cats will definitely be looking at available options in the transfer portal as they fill out their incoming group for next season. UK will remain a highly attractive option to such players. It’ll be a surprise if the Cats don’t add at least one transfer next offseason.
There’s a downside, however, and it might be a big one.
While they’re filling out their 2021 class, UK’s coaches will have to spend just as much time “re-recruiting” the players already within their program. Technically, college coaches aren’t allowed to “tamper” with — aka recruit — players from other teams until they’ve entered their names in the portal. But there are ways around that, and you can bet that any player on this Kentucky team that isn’t seeing major minutes will be hearing through the grapevine that there might be an opportunity for a larger role elsewhere. UK’s coaches have openly acknowledged that keeping such players in Lexington will be a big part of the recruiting process next year.
There will always be roster turnover on Calipari’s teams. That’s what happens when you go after the best of the best. But there’s also been a clear attempt to add some continuity to UK’s program over the past couple of years. Keeping role players in town — and hoping they blossom over time and gain more responsibilities on the court — will be crucial to adding more stability to future rosters.
What happens in 2022?
There’s a whole lot of talent in the recruiting class of 2022, which has been touted for the past couple of years as one of the best groups in recent memory.
There’s also a whole lot of uncertainty surrounding that class, especially as it relates to Kentucky.
As of now, UK has a commitment from five-star point guard Skyy Clark — though he might reclassify to 2021 — and the only other confirmed scholarship offer for a 2022 recruit belongs to Jalen Duren, the top available prospect in the class. Kentucky has been linked to several other players in 2022, but there’s no clear hierarchy, as of yet, to its list of targets.
With no chance for in-person evaluations or face-to-face visits until mid-April, at the earliest, the task of pinpointing those top priorities will only be more difficult.
Complicating things even further will be the professional angle for the top players in the 2022 class. This was long expected to be the first group to benefit from the end of the NBA’s one-and-done rule, meaning players from this class would be able to jump straight to the NBA out of high school. That’s seeming less likely in recent months, but professional options will still be there. We should know more about the G League’s program by then, and top recruits like LaMelo Ball and RJ Hampton have already shown that you can go overseas for a year, make big money, and still be a first-round draft pick. Duren is among the players already rumored to be a pro possibility. There are plenty of others on that list.
It’ll be up to Kentucky’s staff — and, primarily, Justus and Lucas — to figure out who fits with Calipari, who really wants to be at UK, and who’s serious about playing college basketball. And they’ll have to figure that out with little to no personal contact, at least for a large chunk of the recruiting cycle.
It won’t be an easy task amid a recruiting landscape that’s only getting more complicated.
