How 2023 Kentucky Derby horses have run on sloppy or wet tracks

Editor’s note: Kentucky Derby favorite Forte was scratched from the race Saturday morning after this article was originally published.

Earlier in the week, the ever-changing weather forecast hinted at rain for Saturday’s 149th running of the $3 million, Grade 1 Kentucky Derby at Churchill Downs.

The forecast -- partly-cloudy and 79 degrees -- looks better now, but if there is rain on Derby Day, nine horses in this year’s field have already won races on a sloppy or muddy track. Four others have experience racing on “off” tracks.

Kentucky Derby favorite Forte won the Grade 1 Hopeful on a sloppy track as a 2-year-old at Saratoga on Sept. 5, 2022.

That was the first of five straight victories for the colt trained by Todd Pletcher. Last time out, Forte won the Grade 1 Florida Derby on April 1 at Gulfstream Park, cementing his status as the 3-1 morning-line favorite to capture the roses.

Confidence Game won the Grade 2 Rebel Stakes on a sloppy track at Oaklawn on Feb. 25. That was the most recent race for the colt trained by Keith Desormeaux. He’s at 20-1 in the morning line.

Confidence Game did put in an impressive work last Saturday at Churchill Downs. Afterward, when asked if he was concerned about any particular colts in the Derby on Saturday, jockey James Graham said, “They’ve got to be concerned about me.”

Raise Cain won the Grade 3 Gotham Stakes on a muddy track at Aqueduct on March 4.

Trained by Ben Colebrook, Raise Cain finished fifth in the Blue Grass Stakes at Keeneland. He’s 50-1 on the morning line.

Two Phil’s won the Grade 3 Street Sense on a sloppy track at Churchill Downs on Oct. 30 of last year.

Since then, the Larry Rivelli-trained colt has finished second in the Grade 3 Lecomte, third in the Grade 2 Risen Star and first in the Grade 3 Jeff Ruby Steaks on the synthetic surface at Turfway. He’s at 12-1.

As a 2-year-old, Tapit Trice broke his maiden by winning on a muddy track at Aqueduct for trainer Todd Pletcher on Dec. 17 last year. It was the second start for the son of Tapit.

Since then, Tapit Trice has extended his win streak to four with victories in an allowance race at Gulfstream, the Grade 3 Tampa Bay Derby and the Grade 1 Blue Grass. He’s second choice for the Derby at 5-1.

Angel of Empire, third choice at 8-1, began his career with a win on a sloppy track at Horseshoe Indianapolis on Aug. 9, 2022.

Last time out, the Brad Cox-trained colt won the Grade 1 Arkansas Derby by 4 1/4 lengths on a fast track at Oaklawn for his fourth victory in six lifetime starts.

Rocket Can broke his maiden for trainer Bill Mott on a sloppy track at Churchill on Oct. 30 of last year.

Rocket Can won the Grade 3 Holy Bull on a fast track Feb. 4 at Gulfstream. He was fourth in the Arkansas Derby last time out. He’s at 30-1.

In the 19-horse field now after being on the “also-eligible” list, King Russell broke his maiden by winning on a sloppy track Feb. 25 at Oaklawn Park. It was the fifth career race for King Russell, who ran second in the Arkansas Derby last time out.

Mandarin Hero won twice on tracks listed as muddy in Japan. The runner-up in the Santa Anita Derby won June 9 and October 22 of last year on the mud. Originally on the “also-eligible” list, Mandarin Hero entered the field after three horses scratched on Thursday.

Verifying has run twice on a sloppy track. As a 2-year-old, he finished second to Blazing Sevens in the Grade 1 Champagne Stakes at Aqueduct. As a 3-year-old, he finished fourth in the Rebel Stakes won by Confidence Game.

His next start, Verifying finished second to Tapit Trice in the Blue Grass at Keeneland. He’s at 15-1.

Jace’s Road has also run twice in slop. Also trained by Cox, Jace’s Road ran fifth in the Grade 3 Southwest Stakes at Oaklawn on Jan. 28. Before that, he finished eighth, 36 1/2 lengths behind Two Phil’s in the Street Sense at Churchill Downs. He’s at 50-1.

Trained by Kenny McPeek, Sun Thunder ran fourth in that Southwest Stakes in the slop.

Since then, Sun Thunder (50-1) has finished second in the Grade 2 Risen Star won by Angel of Empire, fifth in the Louisiana Derby and fourth in the Blue Grass, all on fast tracks.

Reincarnate (50-1) ran third in the slop in the Rebel Stakes won by Confidence Game at Oaklawn.

The son of Good Magic started his career on turf for trainer Bob Baffert before being switched to dirt. After Reincarnate won the Grade 3 Sham Stakes on Jan. 8, the colt was moved from Baffert to trainer Tim Yakteen so that he could earn Kentucky Derby qualifying points. The colt is coming off a pair of third-place finishes in the Rebel and the Arkansas Derby.

Derby horses that have not run on a sloppy or muddy track: Hit Show, Kingsbarns, Mage, Disarm, Derma Sotogake and Cyclone Mischief.

Japanese invader Continuar won on a muddy track in Japan on Oct. 8, 2022. It was the first race for the 50-1 Derby shot who finished third in the UAE Derby his last time out. Unfortunately, Cotinuar scratched from the race on Thursday.

Note: Of the previous 148 runnings of the Kentucky Derby, 45 were contested on a track listed as something other than fast. The last was 2019 when Country House won through disqualification on a sloppy track.

This story was originally published May 4, 2023 at 6:15 AM.

John Clay

Lexington Herald-Leader

859-472-4218

John Clay is a sports columnist for the Lexington Herald-Leader. A native of Central Kentucky, he covered UK football from 1987 until being named sports columnist in 2000. He has covered 20 Final Fours and 42 consecutive Kentucky Derbys. Support my work with a digital subscription