What’s the chance of rain on Derby Day? Here’s what forecasters expect over the weekend

Forecasters at the National Weather Service in Louisville have a mostly sunny disposition about weather conditions for the running of the 2023 Kentucky Derby this weekend.

Derby Day in Louisville does look like it will be a bit “cloudy, gray and drab,” as NWS meteorologist Evan Webb put it in an interview Thursday. But on the bright side, “The rain chances are relatively small,” he added.

Lexington and Louisville are expected to have similar conditions Saturday, Webb told the Herald-Leader, with only a slight chance of rain at about 20%. You won’t be baking under your derby hat either, with highs in the 70s.

Here’s what else to know if you’re planning to watch either the Kentucky Oaks or the 149th Run for the Roses in-person this weekend.

What to expect from the weather for Oaks Day Friday

Friday and into Saturday, Webb forecasts an area of low pressure, which will rise and cool, condensing into water vapor to create clouds and possibly precipitation. As of Thursday, that pattern was on track to collide with a warm front, which often brings stormy weather. So exactly how much moisture there will be, Webb said, was still up in the air.

That said, the weather has been dry recently, and the current forecast shows “much of the day does look dry” for both cities Friday, Webb said.

The latest forecast information for both cities, updated Friday, shows a high of 76 degrees for Louisville and 74 degrees for Lexington.

In Louisville Friday, the forecast is sunny, and there’s a similar outlook in Lexington if you’re planning to head out to Keeneland.

What will the weather look like for the Kentucky Derby 2023?

A similar pattern will likely play out in Louisville Saturday — a relatively small chance for a slight shower, though “a lot of the day has a good chance to be relatively dry,” Webb said. The current forecast for Louisville calls for “scattered sprinkles” of rain.

In Lexington, the current forecast from the NWS calls for a 20% of showers, with partly cloudy skies and a high near 70 degrees.

Sunset will occur around 8:33 p.m. Saturday.

Do you have a question about horse racing or the 2023 Kentucky Derby for our service journalism team? We’d like to hear from you. Fill out our Know Your Kentucky form or email ask@herald-leader.com.

This story was originally published May 4, 2023 at 3:58 PM.

Aaron Mudd

Lexington Herald-Leader

Aaron Mudd was a service journalism reporter for the Lexington Herald-Leader, Centre Daily Times and Belleville News-Democrat. He was based at the Herald-Leader in Lexington, and left the paper in February 2026. Support my work with a digital subscription