Horse for the course? How this year’s Derby contenders have fared at Churchill Downs.

More than half of the contenders in Saturday’s Kentucky Derby have actually raced over the Churchill Downs surface before.

Only two have won at the Louisville track, however, and they’re both 50-1 shots.

As for the overwhelming favorite — Tiz the Law, the biggest morning-line favorite in more than three decades — Churchill Downs was the site of the only defeat in his seven-race career.

What does a past history at the home of the Derby mean for Saturday’s big race?

Maybe nothing.

You have to go back 10 years just to find a Kentucky Derby winner who had any previous experience at Churchill Downs. That was Super Saver, who won the Grade 2 Kentucky Jockey Club Stakes in 2009 — the track’s biggest race for 2-year-olds — before coming back the following May to win the 2010 Derby.

Since then, every Kentucky Derby winner was racing at Churchill for the first time.

This year’s events — with the Derby being postponed four months due to COVID-19 — have shuffled the calendar. In normal times, the first race of the year at Churchill doesn’t occur until the final Saturday in April, one week before Kentucky Derby Day. That setup made it impossible for Derby contenders to race in Louisville as 3-year-olds, meaning if they didn’t make it to the track at 2, the Derby would be their first start at Churchill Downs.

Obviously, these aren’t normal times.

Churchill Downs winners

Nine of the 16 horses in Saturday’s Derby field have raced at Churchill before, but only two of them have victories at the track. Those two are South Bend and Necker Island, a couple of colts who are likely to go off among the longest shots in the field.

South Bend — trained by Hall of Famer Bill Mott, last year’s Derby winner with Country House — has won two of his three career starts at Churchill Downs, and both of those races came last year. He broke his maiden in his first try — a 6-furlong race Sept. 14 — and came back a few weeks later for a victory at 1 mile in the Street Sense Stakes.

His lone loss at the track came a month after that in the Kentucky Jockey Club Stakes, which was run over a sloppy track. South Bend was sixth in that race, his only start over an off track in his 12-race career so far. (He also finished fifth in a race over the Churchill Downs turf course in May).

Perhaps a return to Churchill dirt will suit him well? South Bend is 0-for-8 this year, with five of those losses coming on the grass. This will be just his second start for Mott, who took over his training duties over the summer. South Bend was fourth in the Travers Stakes last time out — his first start for Mott — and earned a career-high 97 Beyer Speed Figure in that race.

Necker Island has two wins in four starts at Churchill, and both of those victories came last year. The son of 2007 Derby runner-up Hard Spun broke his maiden at Churchill Downs — in his second career start — with a victory at 7 furlongs last September. He returned a couple months later to win a 1-mile allowance race over a sloppy Churchill track.

This year, Necker Island finished fifth in the Matt Winn Stakes and fourth and last in a Churchill allowance race won by eventual Blue Grass Stakes champ Art Collector, who was among the Derby favorites before he was sidelined from the race with a foot injury Tuesday morning.

Necker Island — trained by Chris Hartman — is winless in six career starts away from Churchill Downs.

Tiz the Law’s only loss

Tiz the Law has been marvelous in 2020, winning the Holy Bull Stakes and Florida Derby at Gulfstream Park, and the Belmont Stakes and Travers Stakes in New York — all in impressive fashion. His final race of 2019 didn’t go so well.

In his first and only start at Churchill Downs so far, Tiz the Law went off as the 3-5 favorite (his odds on the Derby morning line) in the Kentucky Jockey Club Stakes on Nov. 30.

Tiz the Law didn’t break sharply, by his standards, and immediately went to the rail under Manny Franco, but the duo quickly found themselves surrounded on all sides. Completely boxed in for much of the race, Tiz the Law looked primed to make his move in the far turn, but he simply had nowhere to go. Once he found a little running room in the stretch, he briefly stuck his head in front before Silver Prospector and Finnick the Fierce — both running unencumbered to his outside — got past him before the wire.

Silver Prospector finished three quarters of a length ahead of Tiz the Law, who was just a head behind Finnick the Fierce, who was scratched from the Kentucky Derby on Friday morning. Derby contenders Enforceable (fourth) and South Bend (sixth) finished farther back in that eight-horse field.

The race was Tiz the Law’s only start on an off track, but it would be a stretch to blame his lone defeat on the weather or the Churchill track.

“After the race, Manny Franco said, ‘It wasn’t the track. It was a trap,’” said owner Jack Knowlton this week. “I mean, he didn’t break as sharply as we’ve seen him break all year this year. And Manny didn’t get an opportunity to put him where he wanted to put him. And the jockeys here were race-riding. They were doing what they’re supposed to do — give themselves the best chance to win. They kept him pinned down inside, and unfortunately it wasn’t until really late that he got any chance to make a move between horses.”

Knowlton also noted that the pace of that race — the first half-mile was run in nearly 50 seconds — was by far the slowest of Tiz the Law’s seven starts, and the fact that his colt was boxed in kept him from having any kind of control over that pace.

“He had nowhere to go,” Knowlton said. “He couldn’t go forward. He couldn’t go out. So that, I think, was the reason for (the loss). It wasn’t that he didn’t like Churchill or anything else.”

The pace will be much quicker Saturday evening. The track is expected to be fast, with no rain in the forecast. We’ll have to wait and see if Tiz the Law gets a little better trip this time around.

Others with Louisville experience

In addition to South Bend, Necker Island and Tiz the Law, these six Derby contenders have at least one start over the Churchill Downs dirt:

▪ Enforceable ran his first two races at Churchill Downs, finishing second in the slop in a high-priced maiden race last May before finishing third on the same track a couple weeks later. He was fourth in the Kentucky Jockey Club Stakes last fall, finishing a little more than a length behind Tiz the Law.

▪ Major Fed has two career starts at Churchill — a third-place finish in the slop in his racing debut last November and a last-place effort in the 10-horse Matt Winn Stakes in May, a race that saw him go way wide all the way around the track.

▪ Mr. Big News finished fifth — beaten more than 13 lengths — in his only Churchill Downs start, which came last November.

▪ Attachment Rate — trained by Churchill Downs staple Dale Romans — was 11th of 12 horses in his racing debut last June. He finished fourth in the Matt Winn Stakes this May.

▪ Winning Impression also made his racing debut at Churchill Downs, finishing fifth and beaten 10 ½ lengths in a maiden race last November, his only start at the track.

▪ Ny Traffic was a hard-fought second to Maxfield — at one time a possible Kentucky Derby favorite, before an injury sidelined him — in the Matt Winn Stakes in May, his only Churchill Downs start.

Derby newcomers to Churchill

The seven Kentucky Derby contenders who have never raced at Churchill Downs are Max Player, Storm the Court, Money Moves, Thousand Words, Sole Volante, Honor A. P. and Authentic.

For Honor A. P. — the 5-1 second choice on the Derby morning line — Saturday’s race will be his first start outside the state of California.

This story was originally published September 4, 2020 at 11:33 AM.

Ben Roberts

Lexington Herald-Leader

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Ben Roberts is the University of Kentucky men’s basketball beat writer for the Lexington Herald-Leader. He has previously specialized in UK basketball recruiting coverage and created and maintained the Next Cats blog. He is a Franklin County native and first joined the Herald-Leader in 2006. Support my work with a digital subscription