Kentucky Derby predictions: Plenty of experts aren’t picking Tiz the Law to win
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2020 Kentucky Derby preview
The 2020 Kentucky Derby is scheduled to be run at 7:01 p.m. Eastern Time on Saturday, Sept. 5 at Churchill Downs in Louisville. The Lexington Herald-Leader and Kentucky.com have produced all the content you need to get ready for the 146th running. Click below to get started.
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The Herald-Leader asked several horse racing aficionados to handicap Saturday’s Kentucky Derby.
Tiz the Law is 3-5 on the morning line and looks to be one of the biggest Derby favorites in decades, but plenty of experts are looking elsewhere for their winner.
Here are our experts’ predictions:
John Clay
Herald-Leader
Win: Tiz the Law
Place: Max Player
Show: Honor A. P.
Comment: Tiz the Law is so good he might even make Barclay Tagg smile.
Ben Roberts
Herald-Leader
Win: Tiz the Law
Place: Honor A. P.
Show: Ny Traffic
Comment: My pick since January, and he’s only gotten better. A relatively clean trip, and he should win by daylight.
Josh Sullivan
Herald-Leader
Win: Honor A. P.
Place: Tiz the Law
Show: Thousand Words
Comment: It won’t be easy, but Santa Anita Derby champion Honor A. P. has flashed the type of speed, stamina and closing-ability that could lead him to an upset of the overwhelming favorite.
Frank Angst
Blood-Horse
Win: Tiz the Law
Place: Thousand Words
Show: Honor A. P.
Comment: Tiz the Law has put together four straight wins this season after winning two of his three races last year. When he stretched out to 1 ¼ miles in his most recent race, the son of Constitution delivered his best race to date in a runaway victory in the Travers Stakes. Since that effort, he’s bounced back with a couple of nice works. I was leaning toward him when this race was set for May and I’ve only been more impressed since then.
Rick Bozich
WDRB
Win: Tiz the Law
Place: Honor A. P.
Show: South Bend
Comment: Stay safe, stay healthy, everybody — and wear your mask.
John Cherwa
Los Angeles Times
Win: Honor A. P.
Place: Tiz the Law
Show: Ny Traffic
Comment: If I had to bet the house, I’d go with Tiz the Law, but he’s had a busy summer and might be due for a dull effort, in which case if Honor A. P. can repeat his win in the Santa Anita Derby, it will end Triple Crown talk.
Ed DeRosa
Brisnet
Win: Tiz the Law
Place: Max Player
Show: Storm the Court
Comment: Tiz the Law is the most likely winner of the Kentucky Derby in my lifetime, which is as much about the competition as it is him, but make no mistake: This is a spectacular 3-year-old who already has a 1 ¼-mile win carrying 126 pounds under his saddle. My primary wagering opinion is to beat Honor A. P. and Authentic out of the trifecta and superfecta. Max Player is the closer I’m most interested in, and Storm the Court is the horse near the front I think can stick around for a piece.
Joe Drape
New York Times
Win: Honor A. P.
Place: Ny Traffic
Show: Tiz the Law
Comment: The Santa Anita Derby winner is sitting on a big race and is in the expert hands of the trainer and jockey who campaigned the great Zenyatta.
Bill Finley
National turf writer
Win: Tiz the Law
Place: Attachment Rate
Show: Ny Traffic
Comment: Fast, classy, consistent, proven at the distance, faces a relatively weak group of rivals. Very obvious pick.
Jason Frakes
Courier Journal
Win: Tiz the Law
Place: Max Player
Show: Honor A. P.
Comment: Tiz the Law was the one to beat in May. He’s still the one to beat today.
Neil Greenberg
Washington Post
Win: Tiz the Law
Place: Max Player
Show: Authentic
Comment: Tiz the Law has shown time and again he is the best 3-year-old in the country, and this race should be no different.
Steve Haskin
National turf writer
Win: Tiz the Law
Place: Sole Volante
Show: Attachment Rate
Comment: Yes, this is chalk-plus, but after seeing the ease with which he won the Travers, I can’t look past him. Have to look for two bombs to go underneath him.
Byron King
Blood-Horse
Win: Tiz the Law
Place: Honor A. P.
Show: Ny Traffic
Comment: Tiz the Law is 4-for-4 since a loss last fall at Churchill Downs in the sloppy, wet conditions he won’t face on a sunny Kentucky Derby Day.
Tom Leach
Keeneland
Win: Honor A. P.
Place: Tiz the Law
Show: Thousand Words
Comment: It’s a 1989 rerun (with better weather) as the under-appreciated Santa Anita Derby winner upsets the equally-talented odds-on favorite.
Marty McGee
Daily Racing Form
Win: Honor A. P.
Place: Tiz the Law
Show: Attachment Rate
Comment: Was extremely disappointed with the defection of Art Collector, but Honor A. P. still may have what it takes to upset the biggest Derby favorite in decades.
Ray Paulick
The Paulick Report
Win: Honor A. P.
Place: Tiz the Law
Show: Max Player
Comment: He is coming off a dull performance at Del Mar but Honor A. P. has the stride and pedigree of a horse that should be at his very best at the mile and a quarter Derby distance.
Jay Privman
Daily Racing Form
Win: Tiz the Law
Place: Honor A. P.
Show: Enforceable
Comment: Tiz the Law is proven at the distance, continues to train sharply, and is drawn outside, which he prefers.
Kenny Rice
NBC Sports
Win: Tiz the Law
Place: Honor A. P.
Show: Enforceable
Comment: Tiz The Law hasn’t missed a beat all year and might be getting better.
Nicole Russo
Daily Racing Form
Win: Honor A. P.
Place: Tiz the Law
Show: Thousand Words
Comment: Trainer John Shirreffs knows how to get a horse to peak for a big day, and Honor A. P. should relish the 1 1/4 miles.
Tim Sullivan
Courier Journal
Win: Tiz the Law
Place: Thousand Words
Show: Honor A. P.
Comment: Not long ago, the Triple Crown seemed almost unattainable. This year, it looks like a layup.
This story was originally published September 3, 2020 at 3:18 PM.
