Handicapping the 2020 Kentucky Derby: A closer look at all 16 horses in Saturday’s field

What already looked to be one of the surest Kentucky Derby bets in decades became even more of a sure thing Tuesday morning.

That’s when Art Collector — one of the top contenders to Tiz the Law in this 2020 Derby — was removed from consideration from the race due to a minor foot injury. Art Collector, the impressive Blue Grass Stakes winner, is undefeated this year with two victories over the Churchill Downs track. He posed arguably the biggest threat to Tiz the Law, who will go off as one of the biggest Derby favorites in years.

With Art Collector out, Tiz the Law’s path to the roses seemingly becomes even easier. The runaway winner of the Belmont Stakes, Travers Stakes and Florida Derby was placed at 3-5 on the morning line by Churchill Downs oddsmaker Mike Battaglia, who hadn’t set a Derby favorite that short since Easy Goer in 1989.

Easy Goer finished second that year, however. Even “sure things” like Tiz the Law can lose on any given day, especially on Kentucky Derby Day.

Will this first Saturday in September mark a coronation or a monumental upset?

We’ll find out soon enough.

There are other solid contenders here. Honor A. P. is the Santa Anita Derby champion and bred for the distance. Authentic — trained by five-time Derby winner Bob Baffert — has done little wrong in his young racing career.

Longer shots loom, as well. Thousand Words — Baffert’s other entry — roared back into Derby contention by defeating Honor A. P. last month. Ny Traffic is a gritty, gray colt who seemingly never stops trying, an enviable trait at a mile and a quarter.

They’ll all be chasing Tiz the Law.

“He’s a unique horse, I keep pinching myself because he’s such a unique horse. Everything we’ve asked him to do he just does it,” trainer Barclay Tagg said this week. “He’s so exciting in his races. You think he’s gotten in trouble here, in trouble there, and next thing you know he’s in front. He’s a pretty amazing horse. I don’t know if I’ve seen a horse like him.”

Here’s what you need to know about each of Saturday’s contenders:

1. Finnick the Fierce (SCRATCHED)

Need to know: Finnick the Fierce was scratched from the Kentucky Derby on Friday morning. He won his maiden race debut in June 2019 and has not crossed the finish line first in any of his eight starts since. (He was placed first through DQ in an April race). The one-eyed gelding has spent the past couple of races chasing Art Collector, to no avail. In his most recent run, Finnick made a nice move on the far turn in the Blue Grass Stakes but couldn’t compete in the stretch. He fought to a third-place finish in one division of the Arkansas Derby before that, but he’s been no threat to win in any of his biggest starts. He was a 50-1 shot in the Derby morning line.

2. Max Player (30-1)

Need to know: Previously trained by Linda Rice and now in the barn of Steve Asmussen, this colt most recently finished third behind Tiz the Law in the Travers and Belmont Stakes. Max Player’s style has been to go to the back of the pack and make a run at the end, something that might be more difficult Saturday with his inside post. Still, he’s gotten better with each start, and Asmussen — despite his 0-for-20 Derby record — is one of the best in the business. Ricardo Santana Jr. will ride Max Player for the first time.

A good bet? He’s likely not going to beat Tiz the Law, but yet another step forward could very well be enough to get Max Player in the money. Of the four 30-1 shots, he’s the best bet to make the trifecta.

3. Enforceable (30-1)

Need to know: Enforceable looked like a legit Derby contender after his win in the Grade 3 Lecomte early this year, but his results since haven’t impressed. His style is to make a run from the back of the pack, and his numbers suggest that he’ll need a performance far better than any in his past to compete Saturday. Trainer Mark Casse is to be respected, but this is a tall task. Adam Beschizza gets his first Derby start (and his first start aboard Enforceable).

A good bet? The son of Tapit should definitely like the distance. That’s something. Maybe, if enough of the others are fading, it’ll get him into the exotic tickets. That’s a big maybe. There are worse options among the 30-1 and longer crowd.

4. Storm the Court (50-1)

Need to know: It seems like years since Storm the Court shocked the Breeders’ Cup Juvenile field, winning at 45-1 odds and claiming 2-year-old champion honors. It was actually Nov. 1, 2019, and he hasn’t won in five starts since. Storm the Court raced on grass last time out. His best Beyer Speed Figure — a 90 in a third-place finish at the Ohio Derby before that — is relatively low for this field. Churchill Downs expert Julien Leparoux rides him for the first time.

A good bet? Storm the Court has run against several of the contenders here over the past few months, and the results haven’t been great. He looked good in his turf debut. A stellar finish in this race is too much to ask.

5. Major Fed (50-1)

Need to know: Last time out, he got squeezed at the break and rallied from last to second in the Indiana Derby. Before that, he was forced to go way wide all the way around the Churchill track and ended up 10th and last in the Matt Winn Stakes. Major Fed also had wide trips in all three starts at Fair Grounds early in the year. His career-best Beyer of 87 is tied for second-worst in this field.

A good bet? The Kentucky Derby isn’t the place to bank on clean trips, but Major Fed would be an interesting play if he could just get a little luck. He seems the type that will be running past tired horses in the stretch, and — of the many 50-1 shots on the morning line — he might be the best bet in the trifectas and superfectas. Don’t be surprised if he hits the board.

6. King Guillermo (SCRATCHED)

Need to know: One of the more intriguing contenders in this race, King Guillermo was scratched Thursday after missing his morning training session. He had burst onto the Derby scene with a romp in the Tampa Bay Derby at 49-1 odds. That was back in early March and off a layoff of more than three months. He raced just once since: a respectable second-place finish to the now-injured Nadal in one division of the Arkansas Derby on May 2 (the original date for the Kentucky Derby). The long layoffs had been by design, and King Guillermo was training spectacularly at Churchill Downs until Thursday’s bump in the road knocked him out of the race. He had morning-line odds of 20-1 and likely would have been among the early leaders.

7. Money Moves (30-1)

Need to know: Money Moves — a $975,000 purchase last year — didn’t make his debut until Feb. 15 and has run in just three races so far: two wins against 3-year-olds and one hard-fought runner-up finish against older horses. (The 5-year-old gelding who beat him — Prioritize — will run against elite company in the Woodward Stakes on Saturday). Money Moves has improved with each start, but the Kentucky Derby will be his stakes debut. Hall of Famer Javier Castellano (0-for-13 in the Derby) rides for the first time, and this will be Todd Pletcher’s only entry in this year’s Derby.

A good bet? This colt has a ton of promise, but this is a tough ask. Still, if you’re hunting for long shots to bottom out the trifecta and superfecta tickets, he might be worth a longer look.

8. South Bend (50-1)

Need to know: His 12 lifetime starts are more than any other contender in this field, and he’s winless in eight starts this year. In fact, all three of his career victories came in his first three starts — two at Churchill Downs and the other at Keeneland. His speed numbers have improved over his last four starts, culminating in a 97 Beyer and fourth-place finish behind Tiz the Law in the Travers, his first race under Hall of Fame trainer Bill Mott, who won the Derby with Country House last year. Tyler Gaffalione rides for the first time.

A good bet? The final addition to the Derby should be fine with the distance, and his style is to come from the back of the pack (if he comes at all). There are more intriguing long shots.

9. Mr. Big News (50-1)

Need to know: Mr. Big News — a late addition to this Derby — rallied from the back into a hot pace to win the Oaklawn Stakes in the slop on April 20 before returning to finish sixth — more than 10 lengths behind Art Collector — in the Blue Grass Stakes. His Beyer numbers have actually improved over every race in his career but topped out with an 88 in the Blue Grass (among the lowest in this field). Gabriel Saez rides for the second time. The first was that impressive Oaklawn Stakes victory.

A good bet? Another who will likely be trying to come from the back of the pack, Mr. Big News would need a good trip and a career effort just to hit the board. Not seeing it.

10. Thousand Words (15-1)

Need to know: A real conundrum of a horse. Thousand Words looked like a legit Derby contender for Bob Baffert with a February win in the Robert B. Lewis Stakes, then finished a distant fourth behind Authentic, Honor A. P. and Storm the Court five weeks later. He was a non-factor after stumbling badly at the start of the Oaklawn Stakes in April, then got some time off, returning to finish second to buzz horse Uncle Chuck before stunning Honor A.P in the Shared Belief Stakes last month. Thousand Words earned a 104 Beyer for that win — second-best to Tiz the Law (109) in this field. He’s been working well out west, and Florent Geroux rides for the first time.

A good bet? What to do here? If he improves off his last race, he could very well win this one. At 15-1, he’s mighty tempting.

11. Necker Island (50-1)

Need to know: A claimer earlier this year, Necker Island was a distant third to Art Collector in the Ellis Park Derby last time out and has finished no better than third in seven starts this year. Fellow 50-1 shot Attachment Rate has finished ahead of him four times in 2020. His Beyer numbers have flattened out — 87, 87, 86 and 87 over his past four races — and that career-best 87 is second-lowest in the field. His only two career wins have actually come at Churchill Downs, both as a 2-year-old. Miguel Mena rides for the first time.

A good bet? It’s difficult to see him having any impact on the finish Saturday.

12. Sole Volante (30-1)

Need to know: He’s tried to come from the very back of the pack in his previous races, and that style couldn’t get him within 15 lengths of Tiz the Law at the finish of the Belmont Stakes, where he was sixth. He won a competitive allowance race before that and has a Grade 3 win in the Sam F. Davis Stakes in early February on his record, but that Belmont flop is troubling heading into the biggest race of his life. He’s been working out on turf in Florida while training up to the Derby.

A good bet? Looked promising earlier in the year, but it’s difficult to trust him against this field coming off that Belmont performance, even at those long odds.

13. Attachment Rate (50-1)

Need to know: Trained by Louisville native Dale Romans, who is looking for his first Derby victory in his 11th try, Attachment Rate has finished behind Art Collector in his last two starts, but he keeps improving. He had to go way wide in the Ellis Park Derby and looked good as the runner-up to Art Collector there. His sire, Hard Spun, was second in the 2007 Derby and Breeders’ Cup Classic, and his damsire, Afleet Alex, won the 2005 Preakness and Belmont Stakes.

A good bet? Of the eight 50-1 shots in this field, he’s in the top tier. If you’re looking for bombers in the exotic bets, another step forward could get him in the money.

14. Winning Impression (50-1)

Need to know: Races aren’t run on paper, and that’s good news for Winning Impression, who has one victory in eight career starts and has finished seventh in his last two races, beaten by more than 10 lengths on both occasions. His career-best 82 Beyer is (by far) the lowest in this field. Trainer Dallas Stewart has shocked at the Derby before, finishing second with both 34-1 shot Golden Soul in 2013 and 37-1 shot Commanding Curve in 2014. Winning Impression will likely be a longer shot than both of those horses, and he probably deserves to be the longest shot in this field.

A good bet? Completely dismissing Stewart with a Derby long shot seems unwise, but there’s no reason to think this gelding will be anywhere near the leaders at the end of Saturday’s race.

15. Ny Traffic (20-1)

Need to know: Past results say you know what you’re going to get with this gray colt, and that’s a gritty competitor who won’t give up in the stretch. Ny Traffic has finished second in each of his past three races — the Haskell, Matt Winn Stakes and Louisiana Derby — and he nearly caught Authentic at the wire in the Haskell, galloping out past the winner after that 1 ⅛-mile race. He earned a 101 Beyer for the effort, and his speed numbers have improved over each of his past five races since joining trainer Saffie Joseph Jr. Ny Traffic likes to race near the lead.

A good bet? Yes. A win here will be tough — though if he goes off around 20-1, it’d be worth a few bucks — but Ny Traffic looks like an absolute must-play in the exotic bets.

16. Honor A. P. (5-1)

Need to know: Long in the thick of the Derby conversation, Honor A. P. was an impressive winner of the Santa Anita Derby after making a sweeping run into the stretch. He returned to finish a disappointing second to Thousand Words in the Shared Belief Stakes last month, though he looked good in the final strides of what was a visually awkward four-horse race. (He earned 102 Beyers in both races, the only horse in the field with two Beyers of more than 100). Honor A. P. has a versatile running style, and he should relish the added distance. Mike Smith and John Shirreffs won the Derby with long-shot Giacomo in 2005.

A good bet? Think he’s closer to Tiz the Law than the morning line would suggest. Makes for a fine win bet at 5-1, and you have to use him in the exotics.

17. Tiz the Law (3-5)

Need to know: Winner of the Travers Stakes, Belmont Stakes, Florida Derby and Holy Bull Stakes this year, and he won them all going away. Tiz the Law likes to stalk the leaders, and he’s done it expertly in 2020. His Travers win — at the Derby distance of 1 ¼ miles — earned him a 109 Beyer. The outside post shouldn’t bother him, and Manny Franco will be looking to get a clean trip all the way around, even if he has to give up ground away from the rail. Tiz the Law has been training beautifully in New York for 2003 Derby winner Barclay Tagg.

A good bet? You can knock the competition he’s beaten, grasp at the fact that his only loss came at Churchill Downs (last November), or speculate that his epic summer might leave him with little left for Saturday. The eyeballs say he’s the best in this field by a pretty good margin, however, and a decent trip will make the Derby his to lose.

18. Authentic (8-1)

Need to know: Authentic made his racing debut Nov. 9 and has four wins and one runner-up in five career starts. He beat Honor A. P. in the 1 1/16-mile San Felipe, lost to Honor A. P. in the Santa Anita Derby, and then held off Ny Traffic in the Haskell in July, earning a career-best 101 Beyer for that race. A string of injuries and defections has made him Bob Baffert’s top contender for a sixth Derby win Saturday, but there are plenty of questions as to whether Authentic will handle the added distance. Mike Smith rode him in the Haskell, but he’s on Honor A. P., so two-time Derby winner John Velazquez rides for the first time. Authentic will probably try to go straight for the lead from the far outside post.

A good bet? Don’t think he’ll get the distance. Might look foolish Saturday evening, but tossing him out in hopes of a longer shot for the exotics.

This story was originally published September 3, 2020 at 10:58 AM.

Ben Roberts

Lexington Herald-Leader

859-429-2848

Ben Roberts is the University of Kentucky men’s basketball beat writer for the Lexington Herald-Leader. He has previously specialized in UK basketball recruiting coverage and created and maintained the Next Cats blog. He is a Franklin County native and first joined the Herald-Leader in 2006. Support my work with a digital subscription