Who might have a chance to upset Essential Quality in the Blue Grass Stakes?
There is one simple question concerning Saturday’s running of the Grade 2, $800,000 Toyota Blue Grass Stakes at Keeneland.
Can Essential Quality be beaten?
The Godolphin homebred is the current Kentucky Derby favorite, based on his perfect 4-for-4 career record. Two of those wins came at Keeneland. And both were Grade 1 victories. Essential Quality won the Breeders’ Futurity last October, then followed up with a Nov. 6 victory in the Breeders’ Cup Juvenile at Keeneland to clinch the Eclipse Award for 2-year-old champion.
Trained by another 2020 Eclipse Award winner, Brad Cox, the son of Tapit was impressive in his 2021 debut, winning the twice-delayed Southwest Stakes at Oaklawn by 4 1/4 lengths over a sloppy track on Feb. 27. Rather than remain in Hot Springs for next week’s Arkansas Derby, Cox decided to ship Essential Quality back to Kentucky and make the Blue Grass his star attraction’s final prep before the big Churchill Downs race on May 1.
Even as the 3-5 morning-line favorite Saturday, Essential Quality does faces an interesting if not formidable field Saturday, starting with 3-1 second choice Highly Motivated, owned by Seth Klarman’s Klaravich Stables and trained by Chad Brown, who won the 2018 Blue Grass with Good Magic.
Highly Motivated triumphed in the Nyquist Stakes at Keeneland on the undercard on the Saturday of last year’s Breeders’ Cup. He didn’t make his 2021 debut until March 6 in the Gotham Stakes, however, where despite a tough trip, Highly Motivated finished third. His sire, Into Mischief, produced Authentic, last year’s Kentucky Derby winner.
Keepmeinmind has also run well at Keeneland, finishing second to Essential Quality in the Breeders’ Futurity, then third in the Breeders’ Cup Juvenile. After winning the Kentucky Jockey Club Stakes at Churchill Downs on Nov. 28, he also took a long layoff before running a disappointing sixth in the Rebel Stakes for trainer Robertino Diodoro.
“We know he loved this track last year and decided to bring him back,” Diodoro said this week.
The wild card is Untreated, a lightly raced son of Kentucky Derby winner Nyquist, trained by Todd Pletcher and owned by Team Valor. After finishing sixth in his career debut at Gulfstream on Jan. 9, Untreated broke his maiden with an eye-catching 8 3/4-length win at Tampa Bay Downs on March 6.
“We think a lot of our horse,” said Barry Irwin, head of Team Valor, which owns Untreated. “We know he’s behind the eight-ball in terms of experience and seasoning, but he can run 1 1/14 miles. The farther he goes, the more he likes it.”
His jockey, Joel Rosario, is on a roll, winning the Rebel Stakes aboard Bob Baffert’s Concert Tour and the Louisiana Derby on Hot Rod Charlie. And Pletcher is a three-time Blue Grass winner with Bandini (2005), Monba (2008) and Carpe Diem (2015) whose Known Agenda captured the Florida Derby last Saturday at Gulfstream.
And it’s hard to toss Rombauer, who ran fifth in the Breeders’ Cup Juvenile, but won the El Camino Real Derby on synthetic turf at Golden Gate on Feb. 13 before being shipped back to Kentucky because of an “ABB decision,” said owner John Fradkin. “Avoid Bob Baffert.”
As for the others, Sittin On Go’s trainer, Dale Romans, has twice won the Blue Grass, with Dullahan in 2012 and Brody’s Cause in 2016. Hidden Stash ran second in the Tampa Bay Derby on March 6. Hush of a Storm won the John Battaglia at Turfway Park on Feb. 26. And Leblon is taking his first shot at stakes company.
Still, come 6:35 p.m. Saturday, Essential Quality will be tough to beat.
“It’s very rare for a horse to be able to be 4-for-4 and have different tactics,” Cox said this week. “He’s won from three-quarters all the way to 1 1/16 miles at the Grade 1 level. I think it speaks volumes to actually how good he is and how much talent he has. We’re in a good spot with him. He’s just a very good horse.”
And it will take a good one to beat him.
