Is this the year we see a new trainer hoisting the Kentucky Derby trophy?
Bob Baffert is back, but without his usual firepower.
Oh, the six-time Kentucky Derby winner trains a 3-year-old in Saturday’s 147th running of the world’s most famous race. Medina Spirit finished second for Baffert in the Santa Anita Derby. He’s 15-1 in the morning line, suggesting we could witness the unbridled joy of a new trainer in the winner’s circle during the golden hour beneath the twin spires.
The Kentucky Derby is scheduled for a 6:57 p.m. post time with television coverage beginning at 12:30 p.m. on the NBC Sports Network and 2:30 p.m. on NBC.
Brad Cox could be that first-time winning trainer. The 41-year-old reigning Eclipse Award winner grew up two blocks from Churchill Downs. And in an oddity straight out of Ripley’s Believe It or Not, no Louisville-born trainer has ever won the Kentucky Derby. This year, Cox trains the 2-1 favorite, Godolphin’s Essential Quality.
“I thought it would be 3-1,” said Cox at the post-position draw on Tuesday, where Essential Quality drew the No. 14 post. “But I’m not betting.”
Steve Asmussen could be that man. The 55-year-old South Dakota native is Churchill Downs’ all-time winningest trainer. He’s 0-for-21 in the Kentucky Derby. His chances are doubled this year with Midnight Bourbon and Super Stock. The latter won the Arkansas Derby and is a sentimental choice. Asmussen’s father, Keith, is co-owner along with Erv Woolsey, who manages country music star George Strait. Before returning to school at the University of Texas, Asmussen’s son, Keith, was the jockey for Super Stock’s first stakes win.
“It’s a great honor to run a horse in the Derby for my parents,” said Steve Asmussen on Wednesday.
John Sadler could be that man. The 64-year-old Californian has won over 2,400 races. His best Derby finish was sixth 28 years ago. This year, he trains Santa Anita Derby winner Rock Your World, the 5-1 second choice. Sadler raced his star on grass before switching to dirt for the Santa Anita Derby where Rock Your World rolled in arguably the most impressive performance by any 3-year-old this year.
“We like where we are right now,” said Sadler at Tuesday’s draw.
Chad Brown could be that man. The 42-year old has won the Eclipse Award for winning trainer four times. He finished second in the 2018 Kentucky Derby with Good Magic. Brown is back with Highly Motivated, who led the Blue Grass Stakes at Keeneland on April 3 until the final strides when the undefeated Essential Quality put a neck in front.
Or Kenny McPeek could be the man. With a Preakness and Belmont win on his resume, the 58-year-old Lexingtonian needs the Derby to complete his personal Triple Crown. And King Fury, who won the Lexington Stakes at Keeneland on April 10, is a sleeper capable of a Saturday surprise.
This is not to discount proven commodities. Besides Baffert’s six wins, both Doug O’Neill and Todd Pletcher are two-time Derby winners. O’Neill returns with Louisiana Derby winner Hot Rod Charlie. For the fifth-time in his historic career, Pletcher has four horses in the Derby.
Pletcher’s most accomplished colt suffered the worst pre-Derby luck. Florida Derby winner Known Agenda is stuck with the No. 1 post position, which last produced a Derby winner in 1986 with Ferdinand. Calumet Farm’s Bourbonic won the Wood Memorial as a 72-1 shot. Dynamic One finished second. Sainthood rounds out the Pletcher platoon.
Essential Quality remains the colt to beat. The off-track controversy surrounding owner Sheik Mohammed bin Rashid al Maktoum — lawyers petitioned the Kentucky Horse Racing Commission to ban his horse from the race because of alleged human rights abuses — can’t detract from the colt’s 5-for-5 lifetime record, including last year’s Breeders’ Cup Juvenile win at Keeneland.
“It’s the Derby, so I’m never going to be overconfident and say we’re going to win,” said Cox, who also trains Derby entrant Mandaloun. “But if we have the racing luck, we’ve got two good horses.”
Same for Asmussen.
“I’ve walked over with horses that I thought were going to win and didn’t,” Asmussen said. “Us being 0-for-21 makes it, when it does happen, which it will happen, and when it does that it will just mean that much more.”
This could be the year.
