Could Kentucky football be the surprise team of the SEC in 2024? Here’s how.

Missouri was SEC football’s 2023 surprise. Picked to finish fifth in the East Division, the Tigers finished 11-2. Their only losses were to LSU and Georgia. They defeated Kentucky 38-21, whipped Tennessee 36-7 and toppled Ohio State 14-3 in the Cotton Bowl. Eli Drinkwitz was voted SEC Coach of the Year.

What would Kentucky have to do to be SEC football’s surprise team of 2024?

After all, outsiders aren’t bullish on the Cats. The annual SEC Media Days poll picked Kentucky to finish 11th in the now 16-team league. Lindy’s Yearbook has Kentucky 35th in its preseason rankings. Phil Steele put Kentucky at No. 39 in his Top 40.

Oddsmakers aren’t optimistic either. With Mark Stoops’ club coming off back-to-back 7-6 seasons, DraftKings Sportsbook puts UK’s projected over/under win total at 7.5. BetMGM has Kentucky’s odds of winning the SEC at +12500, meaning a $10 bet would win you $1,250.00

So what must Stoops’ squad do to be this year’s Mizzou? Let’s focus on these four objectives:

1. Receive stellar quarterback play

Kentucky’s biggest question mark is behind center. There’s talent in the quarterback room. Transfer Brock Vandagriff signed with Georgia as a five-star recruit. Gavin Wimsatt was a three-year starter at Rutgers. True freshman Cutter Boley is a heralded prospect. New play-caller Bush Hamdan coached 2023’s seventh-best rushing offense at Boise State.

All are unproven, however. In three seasons as a Bulldog, Vandagriff threw 21 passes. Wimsatt is a career 46.8% passer. Boley has never taken a college snap. Hamdan is Stoops’ fourth offensive coordinator in as many seasons.

In 2022, Missouri quarterback Brady Cook averaged 7.2 yards per pass attempt and threw for 14 touchdowns. In 2023, Cook improved to 9.0 yards per attempt and 21 touchdowns. Kentucky needs Cook-type numbers in 2024.

2. The defense must return to form

Defensive coordinator Brad White saw his unit drop from 12th to 45th in total defense and 11th to 61st in scoring defense. After allowing 19.2 points per game in 2022, the 2023 Wildcats allowed 25.8 points.

As it has been noted, third-down defense was a persistent problem. But there was more. Kentucky stopped the run (19th nationally) but not the pass (90th in pass efficiency). And the Cats plummeted from 51st to 121st in red zone defense.

UK has 10 starters returning, plus the addition of Georgia transfer linebacker Jamon Dumas-Johnson. And White has proven he can do the job. Time for a rebound.

3. Defeat South Carolina in Week 2

Stoops’ 10-win seasons in 2018 and 2021 have something in common. The Cats beat South Carolina both years. They bested Will Muschamp’s Gamecocks 24-10 in Lexington in 2018. They beat Shane Beamer’s club 16-10 in Columbia in 2021.

That makes the Sept. 7 UK-South Carolina matchup at Kroger Field huge for both. Kentucky has lost two straight to Carolina, a 21-14 home loss in 2022 followed by 17-14 finger in the eye on the road last season.

One note: UK’s 2018 and 2021 wins came in September. The 2022 loss was in October, the 2023 one in November. The 2024 South Carolina game returns to the September schedule. The winner earns an early boost.

4. Pull off a surprising road win

To be a 2024 surprise, Kentucky will need at least one win among these three road opportunities:

Kentucky plays at Ole Miss on Sept. 28. Lane Kiffin’s Rebels are a popular preseason pick for this year’s expanded College Football Playoff. Stoops and Co. nearly beat the Rebels in Oxford in 2022, however. Two late fumbles killed the Cats’ cause in a 22-19 loss. Here’s a chance to turn the tables.

Kentucky plays at Tennessee on Nov. 2. After a 34-7 road win in COVID 2020, the Cats have lost three straight to the Vols. UK was fed to the wood chipper 44-6 its last Knoxville trip. Coming out on top on Rocky Top would be a giant step forward.

Kentucky plays at Texas on Nov. 23. A College Football Playoff team last season, the Longhorns are a likely top five preseason AP Top 25 pick this year. The Longhorns did not lose in Austin last season. Toppling Texas is a tall task, but it’d be a tremendous accomplishment if the Cats could win.

This story was originally published August 6, 2024 at 6:45 AM.

John Clay

Lexington Herald-Leader

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John Clay is a sports columnist for the Lexington Herald-Leader. A native of Central Kentucky, he covered UK football from 1987 until being named sports columnist in 2000. He has covered 20 Final Fours and 42 consecutive Kentucky Derbys. Support my work with a digital subscription