Turnover margin can be important to a football team — unless the team is Kentucky
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Now less than two weeks before the majority of season openers, college football teams are focusing in on the factors that often separate the winners from the losers.
One of those factors is typically turnover margin. Consider that national champion Michigan (15-0) led the nation in turnover margin last season, followed by No. 2 Penn State (10-3), No. 3 Northwestern (8-5), No. 4 Navy (5-7), No. 5 Kansas State (7-6), No. 6 Wyoming (9-4), No. 7 San Jose State (7-6), No. 8 Ole Miss (11-2), No. 9 Oregon (12-2), No. 10 Ohio (10-3) and Missouri (11-2).
As you can see, of those 11 teams, only Navy finished with a losing record.
Yet in the 12 years that Mark Stoops has been the head coach at Kentucky, turnover margin is one area in which the Wildcats have failed to excel. Yet that failure hasn’t really affected UK’s win-loss record.
In fact, Kentucky’s highest turnover margin ranking in the Stoops era is No. 12 in 2020. That was the COVID season in which the Wildcats finished 4-6 against an all-SEC regular-season schedule before beating North Carolina State in the TaxSlayer Gator Bowl.
UK’s second-highest finish in turnover margin under Stoops was 19th during his second season as head coach, way back in 2014. The Cats finished 5-7 that campaign.
What about Kentucky’s two 10-win seasons under Stoops? In 2018, when UK went 10-3 and defeated Penn State in the Citrus Bowl, the Cats ranked 54th in turnover margin. In 2021, when UK went 10-3 and defeated Iowa in the Citrus Bowl, the Cats ranked 125th in turnover margin.
Here are Kentucky’s turnover margin rankings in all of Stoops’ 12 seasons:
What’s holding the Cats back? For one thing, Kentucky hasn’t really produced that many turnovers under Stoops. It did rank sixth nationally in 2020 with 22 takeaways in 11 games. After that, its highest ranking was 41st in that 2014 season. Its lowest ranking was 113rd in that 2021 Citrus Bowl-winning season.
As for giveaways, Kentucky’s best ranking came in Stoops’ first season. Despite finishing 2-10, the Wildcats ranked ninth nationally after turning the ball over just 15 times.
UK’s worst ranking was 121st in the 2016 season, the Cats’ first bowl season under Stoops, when the Wildcats turned the ball over 28 times.
Last season, Kentucky finished with a -0.15 turnovers per game margin. The Cats turned it over 20 times, while turning their opponents over 18 times. That ranked 81st overall, including 59th in takeaways and 85th in giveaways.
This story was originally published August 19, 2024 at 6:00 AM.
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