Predicting every game of UK football’s 2025 season. Can the Cats bounce back?
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Preview: Toledo at Kentucky football
Click below to read more of the Herald-Leader and Kentucky.com’s preview coverage ahead of Saturday’s Kentucky-Toledo game at Kroger Field.
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With a whopping 50 newcomers on the 2025 Kentucky football roster, I am less certain of what to expect of Mark Stoops’ Wildcats in the coming season than ever before.
In terms of my predicting the Cats’ fate, that might not a be bad thing.
Last year, with Kentucky boasting a veteran-laden roster with which I was quite familiar, I picked the Wildcats to go 8-4.
As you well know, they went 4-8.
Unbowed, I am back to take another crack at projecting how Kentucky football will fare. These are my game-by-game projections for UK’s 2025 “team of mystery.”
Toledo
The dope: Aug. 30 at Kroger Field.
The hope: In the Mark Stoops coaching era, Kentucky is 11-0 against teams from the Mid-American Conference and is 9-3 in season openers.
The nope: Toledo was chosen by the MAC coaches as the preseason pick to win the league. A season ago, the Rockets went on the road and rocked an SEC team, Mississippi State, 41-17 in Starkville.
The scope: Kentucky 34, Toledo 28.
No. 21 Mississippi
The dope: Sept. 6 at Kroger Field.
The hope: In the previous 27 seasons, UK has won the second game on its schedule 24 times. This year, the Wildcats will get new Ole Miss quarterback Austin Simmons making his first career road start.
The nope: Lane Kiffin’s crew will be exceptionally motivated for the Wildcats. Kentucky’s 20-17 upset of the then-No. 6 Rebels last year in Oxford essentially knocked Mississippi out of the College Football Playoff.
The scope: Kentucky 24, Mississippi 23.
Eastern Michigan
The dope: Sept. 13 at Kroger Field.
The hope: Under Stoops, Kentucky is 20-2 against teams from Group of Five conferences — such as EMU of the MAC — and the Wildcats have won 15 such games in a row. Eastern Michigan is 0-10 all-time against SEC teams.
The nope: Two top contenders for the vacant Eastern Michigan starting quarterback job each have a Big Ten pedigree. Noah Kim started five games at QB for Michigan State in 2023, while Cameron Edge spent the first three seasons of his college career playing for Maryland.
The scope: Kentucky 38, Eastern Michigan 16.
No. 13 South Carolina
The dope: Sept. 27 in Columbia, South Carolina.
The hope: Last season, the South Carolina defense held Kentucky to 183 yards of total offense in a 31-6 demolition of UK. The good news is five of last year’s Gamecocks defenders heard their names called in the 2025 NFL draft.
The nope: Since Shane Beamer hired Clayton White away from Western Kentucky to run the Gamecocks defense, UK has averaged a paltry 12.5 points and 276.8 yards in four games against South Carolina.
The scope: South Carolina 20, Kentucky 17.
No. 5 Georgia
The dope: Oct. 4 in Athens, Georgia.
The hope: Based on the Georgia schedule, Kentucky sets up as a classic “trap game” for the Bulldogs. Kirby Smart’s Dawgs face perennial nemesis Alabama the week before playing UK. The week after meeting the Cats, Georgia will play at rival Auburn.
The nope: UK has lost 15 in a row against Georgia. In 12 games under Stoops, the Cats have only played the Bulldogs within single digits twice.
The scope: Georgia 35, Kentucky 13.
No. 1 Texas
The dope: Oct. 18 at Kroger Field.
The hope: Kentucky quarterback Zach Calzada — who directed Texas A&M to a 41-38 upset of No. 1 Alabama in 2021 — has his sling ready for another slaying of Goliath.
The nope: If healthy, presumptive Texas starting quarterback Arch Manning will be the fourth member of his family to QB against UK in Lexington. So far, the Mannings (three wins) have had more success in those games than the Wildcats (one).
The scope: Texas 41, Kentucky 17.
No. 24 Tennessee
The dope: Oct. 25 at Kroger Field.
The hope: The last four times the Rocky Toppers played football in Lexington, the game has been decided by three, four, three and six points, respectively.
The nope: Tennessee has won three of the four games referenced above and is 11-2 in one-score games against Kentucky since 1987.
The scope: Tennessee 26, Kentucky 21.
Auburn
The dope: Nov. 1 in Auburn, Alabama.
The hope: Kentucky’s most recent victory over Auburn, 21-14 in 2009, came at Jordan-Hare Stadium.
The nope: That is UK’s only victory over the Tigers in the past 20 meetings between the teams. Auburn returns four offensive line starters from last season — when the Tigers diced the Kentucky run defense for 326 yards in a 24-10 win.
The scope: Auburn 27, Kentucky 16.
No. 15 Florida
The dope: Nov. 8 at Kroger Field.
The hope: Kentucky has beaten Florida two straight times at Kroger Field and is 4-3 against the Gators overall in the past seven meetings.
The nope: Last year as a true freshman, Florida running back Jadan Baugh ran for five touchdowns in a 48-20 pasting of UK. Baugh is back for 2025, and so are four returning starters from the UF offensive line that pushed the Wildcats around last season.
The scope: Florida 30, Kentucky 20.
Tennessee Tech
The dope: Nov. 15 at Kroger Field.
The hope: Under Stoops, Kentucky is 11-0 in games against teams from the Football Championship Subdivision — and Tennessee Tech is 0-10 against Football Bowl Subdivision foes since 2015.
The nope: Four of those 11 Wildcats victories under Stoops against FCS foes have been by 11 points or fewer, and two have been one-score wins.
The scope: Kentucky 49, Tennessee Tech 13.
Vanderbilt
The dope: Nov. 22 in Nashville, Tennessee.
The hope: In the previous four meetings between UK and Vandy in Music City, the Wildcats have won them all by an average margin of 20.3 points.
The nope: Vanderbilt quarterback Diego Pavia beat the Cats 24-17 in Lexington last season — and was not on the Vandy roster during the four-game losing streak to UK in Nashville.
The scope: Kentucky 21, Vanderbilt 19.
Louisville
The dope: Nov. 29 in Louisville.
The hope: Kentucky should be juiced for the first Governor’s Cup battle with Louisville since longtime UK recruiting ace Vince Marrow went “TurnCat” and joined the Cards.
The nope: Marrow at Louisville will not be Kentucky’s problem. The continued presence of sophomore-to-be running backs Isaac Brown (178 rushing yards and two touchdowns in a 41-14 win over UK in 2024) and Duke Watson (104 yards and two TDs against the Cats) at U of L is the issue.
The scope: Louisville 35, Kentucky 27.
Final Kentucky record: 5-7, 2-6 Southeastern Conference.
This story was originally published August 22, 2025 at 6:30 AM.
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