How Kentucky football and Toledo match up — with a game prediction

How the Kentucky Wildcats (0-0, 0-0 SEC) and the Toledo Rockets (0-0, 0-0 MAC) match up at each position for Saturday’s college football season opener — with a game prediction:

Quarterbacks

• New Kentucky starter Zach Calzada has made 32 career starts — 22 for Incarnate Word and 10 for Texas A&M. A 6-foot-4, 230-pound super-senior from Buford, Georgia, Calzada passed for 3,791 yards and 35 touchdowns last year for Incarnate Word. In 2023, Calzada directed Texas A&M to a 31-21 upset of then-No. 1 Alabama, completing 21 of 31 passes for 285 yards and three touchdowns. Former Lexington Christian Academy star Cutter Boley, a redshirt freshman, drew praise from Mark Stoops for his development late in preseason camp.

• A returning starter, Toledo’s Tucker Gleason completed 60.5 percent of his throws and passed for 2,808 yards last season with 24 touchdowns vs. eight interceptions. A 6-3, 245-pound senior who began his college career at Georgia Tech, Gleason also ran for a net 367 yards and seven TDs in 2024. In directing Toledo to wins over power conference foes at Mississippi State (41-17) and vs. Pittsburgh (48-46 in six overtimes) in the GameAbove Sports Bowl in Detroit, Gleason averaged 318 yards passing with a combined five TD throws vs. one interception.

Advantage: Toledo

Running backs

• Kentucky has transfers Dante Dowdell and Seth McGowan bracketed atop its depth chart. A 6-2, 227-pound junior, Dowdell ran for 635 yards and averaged 4.2 yards a carry last season for Nebraska. An effective short-yardage back, Dowdell scored 12 touchdowns in 2024. McGowan, a 6-1, 215-pound senior, ran for 823 yards and averaged 5.4 yards a rush last year for New Mexico State. Also a threat as a receiver, McGowan caught 23 passes for 277 yards and three TDs in 2024.

• Toledo is banking on former Kentucky running back Chip Trayanum to produce the big year that eluded him in 2024 at UK. A 5-11, 225-pound redshirt senior, Trayanum was expected to be Kentucky’s featured back last season but instead ran for only 101 yards in three games in an injury-plagued campaign. Kenji Christian is a 6-2, 200-pound redshirt junior who transferred from North Carolina A&T. Last season, in North Carolina A&T’s 45-13 loss at Wake Forest, Christian ran for 121 yards and a touchdown. Another former Kentucky back, Michael Drennen II, is also on the Toledo roster. True freshman Noah Sanders is the son of NFL Hall of Famer Barry Sanders.

Advantage: Kentucky

Wide receivers

• Kentucky has little clarity among its wideouts. That is evidenced by all three WR positions on UK’s depth chart not having identified starters. At “X” receiver, it will either be sophomore Hardley Gilmore IV (six catches, 153 yards, one touchdown in 2024) or Oklahoma transfer J.J. Hester (14 catches, 315 yards, one TD for the Sooners). Returnees Ja’Mori Maclin (13 catches, 313 yards, four TDs) and Fred Farrier II (13 catches, 126 yards) are battling for the “Z” receiver spot. At flanker, Alabama transfer Kendrick Law (10 catches, 105 yards, one TD for the Crimson Tide) and Clemson transfer Troy Stellato (25 catches, 264 yards, one TD) are contending.

• Toledo added veteran wideout Trayvon Rudolph via the transfer portal from MAC rival Northern Illinois. A 5-10, 185-pound super-senior, Rudolph has 153 career receptions for 2,135 yards and 15 touchdowns. Slot receiver Junior Vandeross III is adept at working the middle of the field. Last season, the 5-8, 181-pound senior caught 35 passes for 485 yards and three TDs. Vandeross was terrific last season vs. power-conference foes. In Toledo’s wins over Mississippi State and Pittsburgh, he combined to catch 19 passes for 267 yards and two touchdowns.

Advantage: Toledo

Tight ends

• Kentucky senior Josh Kattus (six catches, 77 yards, two touchdowns) is one of only four returning starters on the UK offense. Sophomore Willie Rodriguez caught five passes for 94 yards last year as a true freshman. The 6-4, 252-pound former Covington Catholic star has the talent to be a breakout player for UK in 2025.

• Toledo lost 2024 standout Anthony Torres (31 catches, 404 yards, nine TDs) to eligibility expiration. Coach Jason Candle will look to Holy Cross transfer Jacob Petersen to help fill the void. A 6-4, 245-pound senior, Petersen caught 34 passes for 502 yards and six touchdowns last season for the Crusaders.

Advantage: Kentucky

Offensive line

• Kentucky will start three players acquired via the transfer portal — left tackle Shiyazh Pete (New Mexico State), right tackle Alex Wollschlaeger (Bowling Green State) and left guard Joshua Braun (Arkansas). Yet the biggest key to UK’s attempt to rebuild a functional “Big Blue Wall” may be whether holdover Jager Burton can successfully transition from guard to center.

• A veteran Toledo offensive line is led by right guard Ethan Spoth, a preseason First Team All-MAC selection by “Phil Steele’s College Football Preview.” Center Terrence Moore and right tackle Cole Rhett are preseason Second Team All-MAC choices by Steele.

Advantage: Even

Defensive line

• Transfers David Gusta and Mi-Quise Humphrey-Grace will anchor the Kentucky defensive front. A 6-3, 317-pound senior, Gusta will open at nose guard. Last season at Washington State, Gusta finished with 21 tackles, a sack, three pass breakups and a robust 22 QB hurries. Humphrey-Grace, a 6-4, 270-pound junior end, had nine sacks and 17.5 tackles for loss last season for South Dakota.

• Toledo tackle Martez Poynter played the best game of his career in the bowl victory over Pittsburgh. The 6-4, 294-pound senior from St. Louis had six tackles and a sack vs. the Panthers. For the season, Poynter finished with 30 tackles, 3.5 sacks and seven tackles for loss.

Advantage: Kentucky

Linebackers

• Kentucky hopes inside linebackers Alex Afari and Daveren Rayner will make up with mobility what they lack in bulk. A converted defensive back, the 6-2, 227-pound Afari made 62 tackles and 11 TFL last season. A super-senior who began his career at Northern Illinois, Rayner redshirted last season hoping to add body mass, but the 6-2 Indianapolis product is still listed at a relatively slight 217 pounds.

• With the departures of veterans Daniel Bolden and Jackson Barrow (combined 168 tackles in 2024), Toledo is breaking in a new linebacking corps. A 6-3, 240-pound sophomore, Chris D’Appolonia should give the Rockets physicality. K’Von Sherman, a 6-2, 231-pound senior, played in all 13 games last season and made 11 tackles.

Advantage: Kentucky

Defensive backs

• Each standing 6-3, JQ Hardaway (47 tackles, two picks in 2024) and DJ Waller (13 tackles, two passes defended) give Kentucky the length Mark Stoops has long prioritized at cornerback. Safeties Jordan Lovett (33 career starts, seven interceptions) and Ty Bryant (25 career games, 13 starts) have ample experience.

• Toledo expects to have one of the best secondaries in college football. Boundary corner Avery Smith was second in the FBS last season with 14 pass breakups. A Toledo native, nickelback Braden Awls returned an interception 42 yards for a touchdown vs. Pittsburgh. In 2023, safety Emmanuel McNeil-Warren picked off two passes and forced four fumbles.

Advantage: Toledo

Special teams

• Kentucky senior punter Aidan Laros averaged 45.4 yards on 32 kicks and pinned opponents inside their 20-yard line 11 times in 2024. UK will break in a new place-kicker. Redshirt freshman Jacob Kauwe is reputed to have range out to 60 yards. The Cats will also have new return men on both punts, Ty Bryant, and kickoffs, Kendrick Law.

• Toledo place-kicker Dylan Cunanan hit 15 of 21 field goals with a long of 54 yards and made 40 of 41 PATs in 2024. Punter Emilio Duran averaged 41.3 yards on 60 kicks on pinned foes inside their 20 on 21 of them. Punt returner Bryson Hammer averaged 13.4 yards on 19 attempts.

Advantage: Toledo

Prediction

Kentucky 34, Toledo 28

This story was originally published August 28, 2025 at 5:00 AM.

Mark Story

Lexington Herald-Leader

859-444-4731

Mark Story has worked in the Lexington Herald-Leader sports department since Aug. 27, 1990, and has been a Herald-Leader sports columnist since 2001. I have covered every Kentucky-Louisville football game since 1994, every UK-U of L basketball game but three since 1996-97 and every Kentucky Derby since 1994. Support my work with a digital subscription