Kentucky vs. Toledo prediction: Can Wildcats avoid upset in 2025 opener?
AI-generated summary reviewed by our newsroom.
- Kentucky enters 2025 opener vs. Toledo as 9.5-point favorite at Kroger Field.
- Safety Ty Bryant replaces Ja'Mori Maclin as Kentucky’s primary punt returner.
- Healthy Wildcats expected to lean on physicality to handle tested Toledo squad.
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Preview: Toledo at Kentucky football
Click below to read more of the Herald-Leader and Kentucky.com’s preview coverage ahead of Saturday’s Kentucky-Toledo game at Kroger Field.
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It’s almost football time in the Bluegrass for the first time in 2025. Here are some final thoughts and predictions about how Kentucky’s season opener against Toledo might play out at Kroger Field on Saturday.
An early chance to make a statement
After the point spread shrunk to 7.5 points in Kentucky’s favor over the weekend, bettors appear to have jumped on the Wildcats again. The spread was back to 9.5 points as of Thursday.
Regardless of how big a favorite oddsmakers have Kentucky at kickoff, the season opener against Toledo appears to represent a chance to make an early statement in a way most of UK’s recent openers have not.
“I’m excited to get going,” UK coach Mark Stoops said Monday. “I’m glad we have a very good opponent coming in here in Toledo.”
Toledo beat two Power Four conference opponents last season, including an SEC foe with a blowout win at Mississippi State. The Rockets are the preseason Mid-American Conference favorite and received votes in the preseason Associated Press Top 25.
That is a marked difference from a year ago, when Kentucky opened the 2024 season against a Southern Miss team that was coming off a 3-9 season and ended up going 1-11. UK has not played season opener against a team that finished the season with a winning record since 2020, when the SEC’s pandemic-altered schedule had UK open its season at Auburn.
The last time UK opened a season against a nonconference foe that finished the year with a .500 record was also the last time Kentucky faced Toledo, the 2019 opener. UK ended up winning that game by 14 points, but the score was tied at halftime.
“I think this is as well a coached team as we’ve probably seen in a while,” offensive coordinator Bush Hamdan said. “… This is a team that played and played extremely well against Mississippi State in that win, that beat Pitt in their last game. And so it’s an extremely tough unit, fundamentally sound. Play their butt off. We know what’s ahead of us.”
No matter how much praise Toledo is receiving this summer, beating a MAC team is unlikely to move the needle much for the portion of Kentucky fans already convinced 2025 is going to be a disaster, but a convincing victory should give more hope for a turnaround. This game won’t tell us much about how the host of transfers from smaller programs will fare against SEC competition, but it can say something about Kentucky’s quest to play more disciplined and drown out the negativity surrounding the program.
Of course, a loss would be a clear indication all that negativity is warranted.
“We’re going to show that we play fast, we play physical, we play hard every single down,” safety Ty Bryant said. “Just let our game do all the talking.”
The depth chart’s one big surprise
Barion Brown’s transfer to LSU meant Kentucky was going to feature a new kickoff returner for the first time in three years this season, but with wide receiver Ja’Mori Maclin returning, it was not expected there would be a change at punt returner.
But Maclin was not listed as the starter or backup at punt returner on the week one depth chart. Instead, Bryant will take over those duties.
“He gets a good bead on it, and he’s done a nice job fielding punts,” Stoops said of Bryant, noting his background as a former center fielder in high school. “A year ago, we lost some critical yardage from time to time not fielding those things, and Ty has done a nice job. He has that baseball background. That helps.”
Bryant did return punts at Frederick Douglass High School, but he did not even audition for the role in his first two years at UK.
A conversation with former assistant special teams coach Mike Priefer this summer led Bryant to try fielding a few punts on a whim after one practice. Special teams coordinator Jay Boulware was impressed enough to give him a longer look at the position in preseason camp.
“It’s a great feeling,” Bryant said. “Hopefully I catch the ball and make a guy miss and go score. It just takes me back to high school days.”
No defensive player has regularly returned punts for Kentucky since defensive back Randall Burden had the job in 2011. Bryant might seem like a strange choice for the job given the number of intriguing young athletes at wide receiver and running back on the roster, but Stoops’ philosophy has long been that the most important responsibility of a punt returner is to simply catch the ball.
“That’s the most important part: Get the ball back to the offense,” Bryant said. “Everything else is extra. That’s exactly what they’re telling me: Just catch the ball. Make sure I catch it first.”
Kentucky football injury report
Unlike a year ago when Kentucky lost multiple expected contributors to injuries before the season even started, the Wildcats appear to be in a good spot healthwise entering the 2025 opener. There were no unexpected absences among the projected starters on the first depth chart. Stoops acknowledged Monday there might be a couple players whose status would be evaluated throughout the week, but he did not release a full injury report, which are mandated for conference games only. Wide receiver Kendrick Law and running back Seth McGowan, who were slowed at points in camp with minor injuries, are back to full health.
Kentucky vs. Toledo prediction
The number of pundits highlighting Toledo as a upset candidate should decrease the risk of Kentucky players overlooking a MAC opponent. Expect an early test of whether the rebuilt offensive line can pave the way for the type of rushing attack associated with Stoops’ tenure at Kentucky. Don’t expect anything flashy from the offense, but the guess here is the physical advantage is enough to let Kentucky pull away in the second half. Kentucky 28, Toledo 14.
The last word
“If you say you’re not nervous for a game, you’re lying. It’s not about the competition or who you’re playing, whatever. … You’re just nervous, especially if first play of the game you’re gonna touch the ball. Just want to do everything right. I feel like once you take that first piece of contact, everything else, you’re just playing.” – running back Dante Dowdell
This story was originally published August 29, 2025 at 6:00 AM.
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