Where would Vegas have seeded Kentucky in NCAA Tournament? Here’s what the oddsmakers say.
.JPG "Kentucky’s Cason Wallace, left, Oscar Tshiebwe and Jacob Toppin celebrate their team’s victory against Mississippi State at Humphrey Coliseum in Starkville on Feb. 15.")
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NCAA Selection Sunday: Brackets, analysis, predictions and more
Click below for more of the Herald-Leader’s and Kentucky.com’s coverage of Selection Sunday as brackets are revealed for the men’s and women’s NCAA basketball tournaments.
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The Kentucky Wildcats men’s basketball team received a No. 6 seed in the 2023 NCAA Tournament on Sunday evening.
How did that ranking match up with what the Las Vegas oddsmakers think of the Cats in March Madness?
In the minutes before the 2023 NCAA Tournament bracket was revealed, the Herald-Leader took a snapshot of what the national championship odds were for each team via DraftKings Sportsbook.
Here’s how the oddsmakers ranked the most likely teams to win the national championship before the bracket was revealed, and where those teams ended up being ranked by the selection committee.
Selection Committee, oddsmakers agree on Kentucky
Let’s start with the Wildcats.
UK was awarded the No. 23 overall seed in the NCAA Tournament by the Selection Committee, which is almost in perfect lockstep with Kentucky’s pre-bracket odds to win March Madness.
Prior to the Selection Show, Kentucky (+4500) was listed as having the 21st-best odds to win the NCAA Tournament.
This range for Kentucky — both in terms of seeding and betting odds — is largely without precedent.
Kentucky is a No. 6 seed in the NCAA Tournament for just the second time ever, and for the first time since the tournament field expanded to 64 teams in 1985.
UK’s lone other appearance as a No. 6 seed came in the 1982 tournament, when the Cats lost in the first round to Middle Tennessee State.
For the — adventurous — gamblers out there, Northern Kentucky (+100000) had the 64th-best odds to win the NCAA Tournament before the Selection Show, and the Norse were promptly given a No. 16 seed and a first-round matchup with No. 1 seed Houston.
The Norse are 0-2 all-time in NCAA Tournament games.
Biggest differences between NCAA Selection Committee and Vegas
When comparing the NCAA Tournament Selection Committee’s 1-68 ranking of the entire tournament field against the DraftKings Sportsbook odds for schools to win March Madness prior to the bracket reveal, several discrepancies exist.
While the Selection Committee had Alabama as the No. 1 overall seed for the NCAA Tournament, the pre-bracket odds had Houston (+550) as the favorite to win March Madness.
Further down the seed lines, Las Vegas was lower than the Selection Committee on both Kansas State and San Diego State.
Kansas State (+4000) had the 16th-best pre-bracket odds to win the NCAA Tournament, but was ranked as the No. 11 overall seed in the field.
Additionally, San Diego State (+7000) had the 26th-best pre-bracket odds to win the NCAA Tournament, but was ranked as the No. 17 overall seed in the field.
Conversely, Las Vegas was higher than the Selection Committee on both Connecticut and Duke.
UConn (+1800) had the eighth-best pre-bracket odds to win March Madness, but the Huskies were given the No. 13 overall seed by the Selection Committee.
Duke (+3000) had the 12th-best pre-bracket odds to win March Madness, but the Blue Devils were given the No. 18 overall seed by the Selection Committee.
Other significant gaps between pre-bracket odds to win the NCAA Tournament and official seeds given by the Selection Committee included:
Selection Committee Risers
▪ Missouri (+18000): The Tigers had the 38th-best pre-bracket odds to win the NCAA Tournament, but were given the No. 27 overall seed by the Selection Committee.
▪ Florida Atlantic (+20000): The Owls had the 40th-best pre-bracket odds to win the NCAA Tournament, but were given the No. 33 overall seed by the Selection Committee.
▪ Nevada (+50000): The Wolf Pack had the 53rd-best pre-bracket odds to win the NCAA Tournament, but were given the No. 46 overall seed by the Selection Committee.
Selection Committee Fallers
▪ TCU (+3500): The Horned Frogs had the 13th-best pre-bracket odds to win the NCAA Tournament, but were given the No. 24 overall seed by the Selection Committee.
▪ Creighton (+4000): The Bluejays had the 16th-best pre-bracket odds to win the NCAA Tournament, but were given the No. 22 overall seed by the Selection Committee.
▪ West Virginia (+8000): The Mountaineers had the 27th-best pre-bracket odds to win the NCAA Tournament, but were given the No. 34 overall seed by the Selection Committee.
▪ Auburn (+10000): The Tigers had the 29th-best pre-bracket odds to win the NCAA Tournament, but were given the No. 35 overall seed by the Selection Committee.
▪ Illinois (+10000): The Fighting Illini had the 29th-best pre-bracket odds to win the NCAA Tournament, but were given the No. 36 overall seed by the Selection Committee.
▪ VCU (+20000): The Rams had the 40th-best pre-bracket odds to win the NCAA Tournament, but were given the No. 50 overall seed by the Selection Committee.
Clemson, Vanderbilt among teams left out of NCAA Tournament
As always, this year’s edition of Bubble Watch featured winners and losers.
The final four teams into the NCAA Tournament field were Mississippi State, Pittsburgh, Arizona State and Nevada.
All four schools will play First Four games in Dayton, Ohio.
The first four teams left out of the NCAA Tournament field were Oklahoma State, Rutgers, North Carolina and Clemson.
Clemson and Oklahoma State (+30000) both had the 48th-best odds to win the NCAA Tournament according to DraftKings prior to the Selection Show.
Vanderbilt — which eliminated Kentucky in the SEC Tournament quarterfinals on Friday night, but was left out of the NCAA Tournament field — had the 51st-best odds (+40000) to win the NCAA Tournament according to DraftKings before the Selection Show.
Clemson and Oklahoma State are both 1 seeds in the NIT, while Vanderbilt is a 3 seed.
This story was originally published March 13, 2023 at 1:11 PM.
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